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Biggest Busts

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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Feb 26, 2008 9:57 am

RedHopeful wrote:Second, he didn't favor the Great American Ballpark as you might think: 13 HR with a .304/.340/.480 AWAY and 17 HR with a .274/.324/.495 Home.

One HR per 18.88 AB at Home vs. every 25.31 on the Road.

How's this for a split? While Phillips has always hit Lefties well (.293/.338/.472 career), last season his line vs Southpaws was (.341/.378/.606 -- .984 OPS), while he was still pretty sub-par against Righties (.262/.310/.428 -- .737 OPS). I think he has about the same chance at batting .341 against Righties in 2008 as Ryan Braun does batting .450 against Lefties again.

There's a reason Bill James is projecting him to hit 23 HR, CHONE predicts 22, and Marcel predicts 21, with his SB projections being between 21 and 25, and an AVG in the .270s. The chance of him living up to his 2nd Round ADP is very slim, IMO.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:21 am

Busts:

Chris Young SP...

That BABIP and those fly balls are going to catch him one day.....

Mike Lowell

2007 = not happening again.

Jason Schmidt, Garret Anderson, Ivan Rodriguez.........

They're finally over the other side of the hill.

Eric Gagne

Was he pitching hurt in Boston?

Delmon Young :-P.....

:-P :-P ............
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:34 am

There is no chance for Gagne to bust, that is one I'll never understand. A guy who gets drafted in the 15th round or later cannot be a bust, he is a risk.

Sorry, that just struck a pet peave of mine :).

Last night while listening to a podcast they got down on Gagne being a 'risky' pick in like the 16th round. In another draft they said it was a bad pick when he went after Todd Jones! I don't care how many saves Jones get he kills you in 3 other categories so it isn't worth it.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Feb 26, 2008 1:18 pm

bigh0rt wrote:One HR per 18.88 AB at Home vs. every 25.31 on the Road.


Yeah like I said, I would have expected a larger discrepancy. Why does this go against Phillips but not some other guys? How about Holliday? 13.08 at home and 28.09 on the road. Or Jimmy Rollins? Or David Wright?

bigh0rt wrote:How's this for a split? While Phillips has always hit Lefties well (.293/.338/.472 career), last season his line vs Southpaws was (.341/.378/.606 -- .984 OPS), while he was still pretty sub-par against Righties (.262/.310/.428 -- .737 OPS). I think he has about the same chance at batting .341 against Righties in 2008 as Ryan Braun does batting .450 against Lefties again.


This statistic WOULD matter IF Phillips had more seasons under his belt to show it was truly a statistical anomaly. You're pretty much measuring up last season vs. the one before (where he hit .299) What's making that discrepancy look bigger than it really is was his year in 2003 where he hit under the Mendoza line in like 100 AB's. Besides, what is so impressive with .341 against lefties for a righty? Last season, Wright hit .361, Hanley hit .399, Miggy hit .364, ARam hit .395. Torii Hunter and Carlos Lee had pretty significant discrepancies as well. This can really be a long list so what's the point of going on?

bigh0rt wrote:There's a reason Bill James is projecting him to hit 23 HR, CHONE predicts 22, and Marcel predicts 21, with his SB projections being between 21 and 25, and an AVG in the .270s. The chance of him living up to his 2nd Round ADP is very slim, IMO.


I don't have that much faith in predictions to the point where I'm going to trust them if no statistical date support it. Besides, a lot of things can happen to a player where statistic's won't help predict an up/down swing in numbers.

Since you're mentioning Bill James, let's see what he predicted for some Red Sox players for last year:

Papi: James - .285-47-138 in 601 at-bats................Actual - .332-35-117 in 549 at-bats
Ramirez: James - .305-37-118 in 512 at-bats...............Actual - .295-20-88 in 483 at-bats
Drew: James - .283-24-82 in 499 at-bats.................Actual - .270-11-64 in 466 at-bats
Lowell: James - .273-18-77 in 502 at-bats.................Actual - .324-21-120 in 589 at-bats

Almost all projections are just guidelines based on a person's bias. Gotta take them with a grain of salt most of the time. ;-D
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:00 pm

thursday_13 wrote:

I took your advice, zipped over the article. Great bit of fantasy information actually. thanks

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... r-tracker/

But let me put some spin on what I saw. Phillips leads the list of guys who hit 30+ HR, for so called "lucky" HR%. But, seriously, did you read the rest of the names? (The author spelled Holliday wrong...interesting). But, I guess seeing Phillips in this crowd doesnt exactly make me sweat. Wright, Holliday, and Ortiz don't exactly have a litany of "bust" rumors swirling; yet Phillips is considered to be lucky. Eh, big deal, the guy still hit homers. Here is where he showed up:

Player Cheap Total %
Brandon Phillips 14 30 46.67%
Jim Thome 15 35 42.86%
David Wright 12 30 40.00%
David Ortiz 13 35 37.14%
Matt Holiday 13 36 36.11%

Hey, but lets not stop there! I buzzed over to the hittracker website where the stats were taken from. I took a peak at Brandon Phillips avg stnd HR distance:

390.1 ft; which leaves him just above the MLB average.

Oops, looks like someone tabbing up the results for "lucky" HR forgot to take something into account; guys who hit blasts over center field don't clear as much as "pull" hitters. You know, the guys who really hit lucky homers. In fact, Phillips hit 15 HR (true distance) over 400 ft, last year. The truth is, Phillips isn't coming close to leading the league in HR, or avg HR distance, but he is not a lucky HR hitter.

But wait, there's more!

These HR's for Phillips were listed as "lucky" HR based on Hittracker's information:
439ft, 429 ft, 425 ft, 418 ft, and 412 ft.

I'm sure there are more over 400 ( I didn't want to do an exhaustive search), but I would like to know how and where a 439 ft HR is just plain luck that it cleared the fence. I didnt know that Great American Ballpark had the guy who ran the AC at the metrodome working for them now!

Seriously, stats like this are about as meaningless as they are cool. I love knowing that Prince Fielder averaged 408 ft per HR. But, as long as it clears the fence it's a HR people, there are no style points in this league yet.



That's some spin. It might help if it had something to do with the facts. For example, of the 5 HRs you have listed there, only the last two, the 418 ft and the 412 ft were "lucky" HRs. And the 412 ft. HR gained an estimated 37 feet from the wind at BP's back.

Furthermore, the THT analysis is based on "just enough" homers, not "lucky" homers. My initial post may have been misleading on that, but it is clear in the article. BP had 14 "just enough" HRs, and just one of those had a standardized distance over 400 feet.

I agree on one point, however. I don't know of any analysis that has looked to see whether or not this predicts a decline in HRs next year. It's interesting and logical, yet unproven.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:04 pm

By the way, that 439 foot homer....was hit in Coors Field.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby J.C.Fighter » Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:28 am

I agree with Russell Martin being a bust where he's being drafted
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:02 pm

I just read this whole thread and I came away knowing two things:

1. I get a brownie

2. I'm exhausted with Brandon Phillips

Seriously, I see the following as being busts at least in regards to players not living up to their ADP:

Russell Martin - no way he's a 2nd rounder

Jimmy Rollins - have seen him go as early as the 5th overall pick :-o

Brian Roberts - unless he gets traded, I think he's in for a rough season in Baltimore

Jorge Posada - he won't hit .330 again and that has nothing to do with my utter hatred of the Yankees

Closers being drafted in the 4th-6th rounds - K-Rod, Papelbon, Putz, Wagner, Saito, etc...just don't get the philosophy of grabbing a closer that early.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby hot4tx » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:14 pm

AussieDodger, I'm curious why you put Delmon in there. Is there something that I haven't heard? If anything I think he's being overlooked in some drafts and slipping into the 11th-13th rounds. He did ok last year, but he's only what 22 and is still improving. I think the move to Minnesota could help him just for a change of scenery type issue (sometimes nice to get fresh starts when you're in your early-mid 20's)
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby KronJon » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:34 pm

hot4tx wrote:AussieDodger, I'm curious why you put Delmon in there. Is there something that I haven't heard? If anything I think he's being overlooked in some drafts and slipping into the 11th-13th rounds. He did ok last year, but he's only what 22 and is still improving. I think the move to Minnesota could help him just for a change of scenery type issue (sometimes nice to get fresh starts when you're in your early-mid 20's)


Lets see... how about the fact that his OPS last year was equal to Juan Pierre's career OPS? People are fooled by his counting stats because he played in all 162 games. Don't overlook his horrible rate stats. He was just not good last year. Granted, with his age and upside, he could improve in leaps and bounds... but who knows.
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