GotowarMissAgnes wrote:You might want to hike over to Hardball Times which today published a look at which players had the most and the fewest "lucky" HRs--that is, homers that just cleared the fence.
The leader in lucky HRs last year for all of baseball was some guy with the initials, BP.
I took your advice, zipped over the article. Great bit of fantasy information actually. thankshttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... r-tracker/
But let me put some spin on what I saw. Phillips leads the list of guys who hit 30+ HR, for so called "lucky" HR%. But, seriously, did you read the rest of the names? (The author spelled Holliday wrong...interesting). But, I guess seeing Phillips in this crowd doesnt exactly make me sweat. Wright, Holliday, and Ortiz don't exactly have a litany of "bust" rumors swirling; yet Phillips is considered to be lucky. Eh, big deal, the guy still hit homers. Here is where he showed up:
Player Cheap Total %
Brandon Phillips 14 30 46.67%
Jim Thome 15 35 42.86%
David Wright 12 30 40.00%
David Ortiz 13 35 37.14%
Matt Holiday 13 36 36.11%
Hey, but lets not stop there! I buzzed over to the hittracker website where the stats were taken from. I took a peak at Brandon Phillips avg stnd HR distance:
390.1 ft; which leaves him just above the MLB average.
Oops, looks like someone tabbing up the results for "lucky" HR forgot to take something into account; guys who hit blasts over center field don't clear as much as "pull" hitters. You know, the guys who really hit lucky homers. In fact, Phillips hit 15 HR (true distance) over 400 ft, last year. The truth is, Phillips isn't coming close to leading the league in HR, or avg HR distance, but he is not a lucky HR hitter.
But wait, there's more!
These HR's for Phillips were listed as "lucky" HR based on Hittracker's information:
439ft, 429 ft, 425 ft, 418 ft, and 412 ft.
I'm sure there are more over 400 ( I didn't want to do an exhaustive search), but I would like to know how and where a 439 ft HR is just plain luck that it cleared the fence. I didnt know that Great American Ballpark had the guy who ran the AC at the metrodome working for them now!
Seriously, stats like this are about as meaningless as they are cool. I love knowing that Prince Fielder averaged 408 ft per HR. But, as long as it clears the fence it's a HR people, there are no style points in this league yet.