Biggest Busts

[Snakes Gould]

in anyone else in the boat that pierre might be a little bit UNDER valued this season. ive seen him drop below the likes of raul ibanez, michael cuddyer, and jose guillen. if he gets 500 abs, hes going to provide 40+ sb still with a good avg (obp doesnt mean anything in most standard 5x5 leagues) and good runs. worth a "flier" after round 12 or so imo.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I just hate to pick guys who are in danger of losing their jobs...especially when I think the guys challenging for his job are much better from a real baseball perspective.

[MotorCityKitties]

What about Tulowitzki? Sure he's going to be great and everything, the next Jeter, blah blah, but I think he could be a disappointment for where he's being taken this year.

[thursday_13]

You might want to hike over to Hardball Times which today published a look at which players had the most and the fewest "lucky" HRs--that is, homers that just cleared the fence.

The leader in lucky HRs last year for all of baseball was some guy with the initials, BP.

I took your advice, zipped over the article. Great bit of fantasy information actually. thanks

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... r-tracker/

But let me put some spin on what I saw. Phillips leads the list of guys who hit 30+ HR, for so called "lucky" HR%. But, seriously, did you read the rest of the names? (The author spelled Holliday wrong...interesting). But, I guess seeing Phillips in this crowd doesnt exactly make me sweat. Wright, Holliday, and Ortiz don't exactly have a litany of "bust" rumors swirling; yet Phillips is considered to be lucky. Eh, big deal, the guy still hit homers. Here is where he showed up:

Player Cheap Total %
Brandon Phillips 14 30 46.67%
Jim Thome 15 35 42.86%
David Wright 12 30 40.00%
David Ortiz 13 35 37.14%
Matt Holiday 13 36 36.11%

Hey, but lets not stop there! I buzzed over to the hittracker website where the stats were taken from. I took a peak at Brandon Phillips avg stnd HR distance:

390.1 ft; which leaves him just above the MLB average.

Oops, looks like someone tabbing up the results for "lucky" HR forgot to take something into account; guys who hit blasts over center field don't clear as much as "pull" hitters. You know, the guys who really hit lucky homers. In fact, Phillips hit 15 HR (true distance) over 400 ft, last year. The truth is, Phillips isn't coming close to leading the league in HR, or avg HR distance, but he is not a lucky HR hitter.

But wait, there's more!

These HR's for Phillips were listed as "lucky" HR based on Hittracker's information:
439ft, 429 ft, 425 ft, 418 ft, and 412 ft.

I'm sure there are more over 400 ( I didn't want to do an exhaustive search), but I would like to know how and where a 439 ft HR is just plain luck that it cleared the fence. I didnt know that Great American Ballpark had the guy who ran the AC at the metrodome working for them now!

Seriously, stats like this are about as meaningless as they are cool. I love knowing that Prince Fielder averaged 408 ft per HR. But, as long as it clears the fence it's a HR people, there are no style points in this league yet.

[HOOTIE]

Chris Young sp
Carmona
Hardy

[BigLebowski]

Granderson
Phillips
Rios
Martin
Byrnes
Pence

I wouldn't say "busts" but they won't live up to their ADP

Interesting...all of those guys are 5 category guy's. Are you just someone who pay's for the slugger then pays for the SB threat? As opposed to going for guys that help you everywhere?

[davidmarver]

I just hate to pick guys who are in danger of losing their jobs...especially when I think the guys challenging for his job are much better from a real baseball perspective.

Agreed, especially when the player is going to prove difficult to move. I think, from a value standpoint, I'd rather have the odd-man-out from another LA team, Reggie Willits, since he's a draft afterthought, a solid baseball player in real-life, and may actually wind up with a starting spot somewhere before the season starts.

[davidmarver]

Chris Young sp

Is this because of injury concerns, or because you think this will (finally) be the year that those peripherals catch up to him?

[RedHopeful]

Granderson
Phillips
Rios
Martin
Byrnes
Pence

I wouldn't say "busts" but they won't live up to their ADP

Interesting...all of those guys are 5 category guy's. Are you just someone who pay's for the slugger then pays for the SB threat? As opposed to going for guys that help you everywhere?

Noticed this as well. One explanation for this is that if a guy isn't dominant in any category then he isn't as likely to get noticed because he doesn't stand out in any individual category? I don't really like this one so how about this:

Most of the guys mentioned in this entire topic are coming off their best professional seasons. Pena, Phillips, Rios, Byrnes, Ordonez, etc? I guess players who improve/rebound after playing an x amount of years are quick to be labeled flukes. Reasoning is that they didn't show a certain type of consistent growth in prior years. Who said their is a right learning curve? Granted, their are players who do shoot their load and have career years. However, others can continue to produce at a pretty high level for another year/two/five.

Let's take Phillips since he's been hotly debated. I loved Thursday's analysis in using statistical data to attempt to disprove the naysayers. I think he pretty much nailed it. Good comparison to Soriano too. I feel there is no reason that Phillips can't produce numbers worthy of his current ADP. Certainly his SB/HR's/AVG or whatever could slip. Gut instinct says so because he put up numbers well above anything he had done in the past. And perhaps he does slip a bit. All the top players have had down years including Rodriguez and Pujols. No one knows when it'll happen. Could be an injury. Some problem in a player's personal life. Develop a fundamental swing flaw.

I'll still buy him though. Besides the improvements, Thursday already outlined. I like a few other things going for him. First, Brandon showed an AMAZING consistency. Between 4-6 HR's, 20% LD, 40ish% GB and around a 15% K rate every month last season. Second, he didn't favor the Great American Ballpark as you might think: 13 HR with a .304/.340/.480 AWAY and 17 HR with a .274/.324/.495 Home. Third, guy is about to enter his prime.

[Pogotheostrich]

in anyone else in the boat that pierre might be a little bit UNDER valued this season. ive seen him drop below the likes of raul ibanez, michael cuddyer, and jose guillen. if he gets 500 abs, hes going to provide 40+ sb still with a good avg (obp doesnt mean anything in most standard 5x5 leagues) and good runs. worth a "flier" after round 12 or so imo.

If he gets traded I think Pierre is being underrated too but LA doesn't seem to anxious to eat that contract.