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Biggest Busts

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 25, 2008 1:00 am

Just curious who people think are the biggest busts of the first 9 rounds of the draft.

For my money it is Russell Martin and it isn't even close. There is almost no way he ends up with 2nd round numbers or more value than VMart.

1) PAs - Last year Martin had 620 PA's, the #2 C in the NL had 552 PA, the #3 had 517. In 2006 the #1 was 551, in 2005 it was 496. Torre already said he would rest Martin more this season and Martin wore down late last season. So you almost have to chip away at his PA's to start things out by as much as 10%.

2) SB - Last year Martin stole 21 bases, 16 in the 1st half and 5 in the 2nd half. Part of this was probably wearing down but some was people knowing he was going to steal. I just don't see Martin stealing as much as last year. His upside is probably 21 but a more reasonable number considering the PA's is something like 15.

3) HRs - Martin hit 19 HRs last year, he hit 33 HR in 1311 AB's in the minors. I just don't see the upside in power here, especially considering point #1. I think the upside is 20 HR tops, the downside is more like 15 HR.

4) Lineup position - This is a better team and I don't expect Martin to bat #2-5 anymore. The younger guys will be in those slot with Andruw #4. Martin is most likely going to settle into that #6 slot he was in for the later part of last season. This will hurt his R/RBI a bit.

5) AVG - Martin hit .288 last season. Martin hit .281 in the minors so this is probably about right. He had a .312 BABIP which is high for a C but he is a real hitter so that isn't anything out of line with expectations. I don't think there is a lot of upside or downside here.

To me Martin will be between last years stats and something about 20% less valuable than last year. Even if he matches last year he is worth less than VMart and even if he matches last year I don't like him in the 2nd round where he goes in some drafts. I think Martin is a 4th to 5th round pick going in the 2nd or 3rd round. He doesn't have a huge downside but is being drafted in a place that there is no reason to expect him to be worth the pick.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby walkoffblast » Mon Feb 25, 2008 1:44 am

Eric Byrnes could be a pretty large bust. The 9th to 10th round players like Posada, Pierre, Delmon Young and Andruw Jones seem to be going too high.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 25, 2008 1:51 am

Very nice pick with Byrnes, I have him listed as going 25 spots too early according to ADP.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Another Blown Save » Mon Feb 25, 2008 1:57 am

Brandon Phillips would be my choice
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bobbing_headz » Mon Feb 25, 2008 2:59 am

I actually think Curtis Granderson will be a bust, at least for the spot he's going (mid 3rd). Let's face it, other than runs the guy isn't anything to write home about. 20/20 is probably pushing it and batting first he isn't gonna break 70-75 RBIs. Plus last years average was an anomaly and it should go down to the .275-.285 range, not great. True he has some upside cause he's young but I can see lots of other players with similar potential. Corey Hart is Granderson with slightly less runs and more rbis and a better average. Torii Hunter with even more RBis and Hrs. Heck even Chris Young who has 30/30 potential is comparable with the lower average.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby smoovethug » Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:37 am

Not exactly a bust, but I don't like his value for where he's being taken...Alex Rios. Ok so lets say he goes something like 24/90/18/.300/105. I'd still rather have Byrnes' 20/85/30/.275/95 about 3 rounds later.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby BJSFAN123 » Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:40 am

Granderson
Phillips
Rios
Martin
Byrnes
Pence

I wouldn't say "busts" but they won't live up to their ADP
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby willy-t » Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:42 am

You never know, but I don't really want to be messing around with Hanley this year. I see a decent chance for him to underperform his adp. Thats a tough park to hit 30 HRs in, and Mig Cab ghone wont help him. I have him behind Reyes in the SS rankings.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:48 am

Disagree on some of what was said on Granderson... not sure how he can be a question for 20/20 when he already did it. Only his 3rd year coming up and he's only gotten better as each of the last two years have gone on. That said, I agree that he's going to high in the 3rd, so I guess I don't disagree completely :-)

Biggest bust? Sizemore. Why he goes high second round (or even late 1st) makes no sense to me. Take everything said above about Granderson and apply it to Sizemore. Average is mediocre, Ks a lot, hits leadoff so won't get many RBIs.
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Re: Biggest Busts

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:06 am

Bloody Sox wrote:Disagree on some of what was said on Granderson... not sure how he can be a question for 20/20 when he already did it. Only his 3rd year coming up and he's only gotten better as each of the last two years have gone on. That said, I agree that he's going to high in the 3rd, so I guess I don't disagree completely :-)

Biggest bust? Sizemore. Why he goes high second round (or even late 1st) makes no sense to me. Take everything said above about Granderson and apply it to Sizemore. Average is mediocre, Ks a lot, hits leadoff so won't get many RBIs.

David Wright, Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins were all 30/30 last year, and I don't think any of the 3 do it again this year; maybe one. Just because they did it last year, that does not mean we shouldn't question it this year. There's no way I'd take Granderson where he's being drafted, as well as Eric Byrnes, Brandon Phillips, and Jimmy Rollins. I think all four of those guys fail to come close to their ADP value this year.
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