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Draft Best Player?

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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:44 am

You can draft for stats but you have to be conservative on how far you reach for stats. I'm not taking some guy I have tabbed as a 9th round pick because he has steals but some power hitter I have listed as a 7th round pick is left. You can't get too caught up in your rankings but at the same point you shouldn't be downgrading over a full round to get stats you want.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Dan Charette » Sun Feb 24, 2008 9:47 am

For those who say draft the best player, I would like to know how you decide on who the best player is ? Do you use last year's stats ? Or is it a projections list ? What if you already have a position filled , and the perceived best player is a position you already have ? Do you still take him ?
Sure sometimes a player slips a few rounds and is the best, but most of the time it's real hard to determine who the best player is. Some are better at some stats, some are good at others. Comparing hitters to pitchers is also hard .
I'm doing a slow draft and have plenty of time to pick. It's still real hard to decide who can best help my team. If you don't use position scarcity, you'll end up with a dud at a position, since there may be a better player available at a position that you already have . And by using the draft the best player strategy ,you'll take him instead of the player at a position you need.
And during a live draft things are moving quickly , so you must be using cheatsheets. But I think that if you only use a cheatsheet, your team will be lopsided in some ways. There's no way the player who is perceived to be the best, is the player who best fits your team's needs.
And once again I want to ask how can you say who the best player is ? I would bet that at almost every pick of the draft, everyone would have a different opinion on who the best player is. So how can you reach such a definitive answer as to who the best player is ?
And I'm guessing that the cheatsheet ranks the players with all of the categories in mind. How can your team possibly be well balanced by using such an approach ? You may be getting too many players good at certain categories, and not enough production from other categories.
Then you have to rely on trading. Good trades are hard to come by. The team your trying to trade with has to need what you have , and has to have what you need. And when you consider the positions, this will limit the number of teams you can trade with. Then what if you can't find a trade for what you need ? You have to resort to the free agents.
This may work out well in 10 team leagues. You may get lucky and find a hidden gem on the wire. But I myself don't like those odds. But in bigger leagues it will be much harder.
I will always make sure that my team doesn't have any weak spots by using scarcity . I may not rank at the top of some categories, but I will not rank in the bottom half of any category.
To each their own. Happy drafting everyone ! !
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Yoda » Sun Feb 24, 2008 10:51 am

I rarely look at position the first few rounds but take the players who have the best overall offensive potential based on the league format (standard league size). In a larger league with 14+ teams I would look more at position especially C.

Problem with paying for speed early is that you would normally sacrifice the rest of the categories. The reason why people pay for power is because a HR contributes in every scoring category except for SB. I tend to focus on power/speed combos so that I don't have to pay for SB. I do end up grabbing a couple of high speed potential guys near the end of the draft.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Bloody Sox » Sun Feb 24, 2008 2:50 pm

Dan Charette wrote:For those who say draft the best player, I would like to know how you decide on who the best player is ? Do you use last year's stats ? Or is it a projections list ? What if you already have a position filled , and the perceived best player is a position you already have ? Do you still take him ?

That's the entire trick of preseason draft planning - figuring out which players are better than other players. That's why we're all here :-). That's why you do your own research and generate your own ranks.

Obviously, you can only predict things to a certain extent - that's where breaking players into tiers comes in. That way, when you have a decision to make, you can pick any player from the same tier based on stat or positional needs.

In terms of trading, yes - it can be tough and you shouldn't draft four 3B expecting to trade two of them and get fair value. What I like to do during the draft is figure I'm only going to get 90 cents on the dollar in a when deciding whether to draft a player with higher value at a position I don't really need. Given that, the player at a position I don't need better be 110% better (based on my projections) than a player at a position I do need.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sun Feb 24, 2008 3:32 pm

Early you take the best value, but later you have to draft based on need.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Feb 24, 2008 5:34 pm

Most teams, even in a shallow 10 team mixed league, will have some guys who will be better than others and the #1 3B is not going to be all that much better than the #1 OF or #1 SS or #1 2B. Maybe you can argue against having the #1 C, if only b/c PT will be thinner there but the other positions tend to be a wash. If you have a dream OF, it is pretty much guaranteed you will not have a dream IF or Santana. You can balance VERY good but you can't have the best of all possible worlds I think and the theory is that by evaluating players based on value/ tiers, you will maximize the value of your draft. It doesn't matter if your worst guy is at SS or C or in the OF or even 1B.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Field » Sun Feb 24, 2008 10:10 pm

Dan Charette wrote:For those who say draft the best player, I would like to know how you decide on who the best player is ? Do you use last year's stats ? Or is it a projections list ? What if you already have a position filled , and the perceived best player is a position you already have ? Do you still take him ?


I don't really get what point you are trying to make. The best player available is the guy who you think will be the highest ranked player at the end of the season.

To answer your final question: It depends on how much better the player is than the players left at the positions I need. If they are more or less equal then I'll grab the player at the position I need. If theres a large disparity then I'll grab the best guy. There's always the utlity spot and unforseen injuries, so I think it's important to grab the best players possible especially in the early stages of a draft. In a recent draft I grabbed Atkins when I drafted Wright in the 1st round. Last year I took Fielder before I had all of my starting spots filled when I already had Konerko and Hafner. I also think using a tiered ranking sheet is really helpful during drafts it can make some of your decisions easier.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby tgalv » Sun Feb 24, 2008 11:59 pm

i used to be more enamored with position scarcity but i think what it really comes down to is just picking the best players. if you somehow had the foresight last year to draft arod, hanley ramirez, ordonez, phillips, bedard, chris young, beckett, valverde, game over. you win. doesn't matter if you botched up the rest of the draft and had the rest of your team be bums. i also say screw a lot of the pre-ranks. they are useful as a guide but a lot of it is just groupthink and just because someone is "supposed" to go in the 4th round and you take a chance and pick him in the second round, doesn't mean you're dumb and should be ridiculed. if you go back after the season and look at the the preseason consensus, you'd be laughing about how bad "everybody" was off a lot of the time.

all that being said, i would try to make some solid early round picks. last thing anyone needs is for their 1st and 2nd round draft picks to completely flame out. then you can really be screwed. if you've at least got some solid players then you can at least do some work during the season to build a contender.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 25, 2008 12:02 am

tgalv wrote:i used to be more enamored with position scarcity but i think what it really comes down to is just picking the best players. if you somehow had the foresight last year to draft arod, hanley ramirez, ordonez, phillips, bedard, chris young, beckett, valverde, game over. you win. doesn't matter if you botched up the rest of the draft and had the rest of your team be bums. i also say screw a lot of the pre-ranks. they are useful as a guide but a lot of it is just groupthink and just because someone is "supposed" to go in the 4th round and you take a chance and pick him in the second round, doesn't mean you're dumb and should be ridiculed. if you go back after the season and look at the the preseason consensus, you'd be laughing about how bad "everybody" was off a lot of the time.

all that being said, i would try to make some solid early round picks. last thing anyone needs is for their 1st and 2nd round draft picks to completely flame out. then you can really be screwed. if you've at least got some solid players then you can at least do some work during the season to build a contender.


Good post and summed up very nicely.
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Re: Draft Best Player?

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Feb 25, 2008 11:32 am

tgalv wrote:i used to be more enamored with position scarcity but i think what it really comes down to is just picking the best players. if you somehow had the foresight last year to draft arod, hanley ramirez, ordonez, phillips, bedard, chris young, beckett, valverde, game over. you win. doesn't matter if you botched up the rest of the draft and had the rest of your team be bums. i also say screw a lot of the pre-ranks. they are useful as a guide but a lot of it is just groupthink and just because someone is "supposed" to go in the 4th round and you take a chance and pick him in the second round, doesn't mean you're dumb and should be ridiculed. if you go back after the season and look at the the preseason consensus, you'd be laughing about how bad "everybody" was off a lot of the time.

all that being said, i would try to make some solid early round picks. last thing anyone needs is for their 1st and 2nd round draft picks to completely flame out. then you can really be screwed. if you've at least got some solid players then you can at least do some work during the season to build a contender.

Overall I agree with your post, but if there is a guy that you know will be there in round 4 because that is where he is "supposed to go", then it is foolish to use your second round pick on him. You are just sacrificing value. It is fine to reach a bit on players because you think they will far exceed expectations and don't want someone else to snatch them up early, but if you go too far with it you will handcuff yourself too much.
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