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Tim Lincecum.

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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:39 pm

while lince will have his share of growing pains in terms of BB rates, i am not sure hughes is even on lince's level for this yr. tbh, both of these players are going too learly and existing stats are too small especially for hughes to determine anything concrete. for lince, other than the fact he can be dominant at times, his walk rate has shown he isn't as under control most of people think drafting him so early for 08.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby RugbyD » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:47 pm

I am a seller of Lincecum as a SP both this year and long term. I think his stats will be decent but not worth the hype. I don't think he can maintain his stuff with that delivery. When you drop your arm down like that and have to bring it all the way back up to deliver the ball and you do it in such a quick arm motion, a pitcher is very susceptible to leaving the ball up in the zone when fatigued. A small lag in arm action can turn into a few inches of elevation after traveling 60ft, and several feet of elevation after leaving the bat.

He may end up just fine, but the odds are stacked against him as a SP. Not worth the risk IMO, especially in the 2nd half of each year.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby Y`s Guy » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:49 pm

If your league does Quality Starts then Cain and Lincecum are much more valuable. QS actually makes many guys more valuable so maybe it's a wash.

But w/o QS expect pretty good seasons from Cain and Lincecum, but drink the Maalox when they lose the games 3-2.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:58 pm

RugbyD wrote:I am a seller of Lincecum as a SP both this year and long term. I think his stats will be decent but not worth the hype. I don't think he can maintain his stuff with that delivery. When you drop your arm down like that and have to bring it all the way back up to deliver the ball and you do it in such a quick arm motion, a pitcher is very susceptible to leaving the ball up in the zone when fatigued. A small lag in arm action can turn into a few inches of elevation after traveling 60ft, and several feet of elevation after leaving the bat.

He may end up just fine, but the odds are stacked against him as a SP. Not worth the risk IMO, especially in the 2nd half of each year.


He's been maintaining his stuff with that delivery for years. However, I can certainly understand why people don't like him for this year.

Control is everything with this kid. He has problems right now even controlling balls in the strike zone. I remember that at some points it was so bad that he had to take some off and throw 90-91 MPH fastballs just to get a strike call. Outside of body type, he reminds me of Kerry Wood in his younger days. You may be in for a disappointing season or two before he really figures it out.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby RugbyD » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:27 pm

Yoda wrote:He's been maintaining his stuff with that delivery for years.

Very true, but I think biomechanical reality catches up with him over a full ML season of IP.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:33 pm

RugbyD wrote:
Yoda wrote:He's been maintaining his stuff with that delivery for years.

Very true, but I think biomechanical reality catches up with him over a full ML season of IP.


Possibly. He maintained his stuff just fine in 175+ IP between AAA and MLB in his first pro season with the bulk of the workload coming in MLB. His unorthodox delivery scares a lot of people for sure but until he starts to break down, I'm fine.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:35 pm

Yoda wrote:
Slow Pitch wrote:Yeah...it sucks cause I really like the kid, but it seem much more logical to own say a Phil Hughes this year....


Care to explain?

Hughes will definitely be cheaper so I can see the argument. However, I don't think people should significanlty discount Cain and Lincecum just because their team sucks so bad.

Good pitchers on crappy teams will still get enough Ws. Uing Kazmir as an example because historically the Rays are a horrible team all around and he rarely pitches 6+ IP and pitches in the toughest division in baseball the last three years. Yet he has had W (GS):
10 (32)
10 (24)
13 (34)

That is 12 W per 33 GS on average. Considering that there are not many pitchers of LinceCain's caliber who will get 15+ Ws, I wouldn't discount them too much.

13 of Kazmir's 34 starts went over 6.0 IP. At 206+ IP in '07, he's got to be losing this stigma about not being able to pitch into games.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:43 pm

Last year Yoda's well-researched and articulated posts pretty much persuaded me into getting Lincecum and keeping him forever. I'm going to be patient with the kid. Outside of those posts, I've read a couple of more recent articles from writers who have done their research and really see Lincecum's ceiling on par with several Hall of Famers. Now I know that seems like a lot of hype, but the folks making these claims did their homework. They're not saying he's without risk, but really what pitcher isn't?

Sorry I don't have a link to the articles, I read them about a month ago and don't recall where I put them.

I'm in a 5x5 league, so if I have to eat a few wins I don't mind as long as Lincecum is helping me with K's, ERA & WHIP - which I expect he will.

If you're in a points league or another set-up where the wins are real important to you, then I wouldn't sweat it too much. Rich Hill pitched for the Cubs last year and he only got 11 wins.
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Re: Tim Lincecum.

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:46 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Slow Pitch wrote:Yeah...it sucks cause I really like the kid, but it seem much more logical to own say a Phil Hughes this year....


Care to explain?

Hughes will definitely be cheaper so I can see the argument. However, I don't think people should significanlty discount Cain and Lincecum just because their team sucks so bad.

Good pitchers on crappy teams will still get enough Ws. Uing Kazmir as an example because historically the Rays are a horrible team all around and he rarely pitches 6+ IP and pitches in the toughest division in baseball the last three years. Yet he has had W (GS):
10 (32)
10 (24)
13 (34)

That is 12 W per 33 GS on average. Considering that there are not many pitchers of LinceCain's caliber who will get 15+ Ws, I wouldn't discount them too much.

13 of Kazmir's 34 starts went over 6.0 IP. At 206+ IP in '07, he's got to be losing this stigma about not being able to pitch into games.


He is still very inefficient with his pitch count was what I was getting at.

He had the highest P/PA in 07 in AL:
P/PA 07

4th in 06:
P/PA 06

Again, 4th in 05:
P/PA 05
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