Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **BALCO All-Stars** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 12:25 pm

I feel that a player's BAPIP is a good indicator of whether a batter (or pitcher) will improve/regress from previous year's stats...does anyone know of a site that lists players' BAPIP?

Thanks in advance.

by **mbuser** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:18 pm

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/

select 'THT Batting' in the drop-down

by **Yoda** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:27 pm

My belief always has been that hitters have much more control over BABIP than pitchers do. Since two different hitters will have different outcomes when thrown the same pitch in the same location. Also explains why superior hitters like Vlad, Soriano, Ichiro will almost always have a high BABIP. Am I correct in thinking this way?

by **BALCO All-Stars** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:51 pm

Thanks!

Quick question though...there's a LOT of talk about how Upton's and Magg's AVG should regress this year based on their BAPIP from last year (Upton: MLB leading .393, Maggs 5th: .381). But you don't hear talk about Holliday regressing and he was 6th in BAPIP last year: .377. Thoughts?

by **RAmst23** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:13 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:Thanks!

Quick question though...there's a LOT of talk about how Upton's and Magg's AVG should regress this year based on their BAPIP from last year (Upton: MLB leading .393, Maggs 5th: .381). But you don't hear talk about Holliday regressing and he was 6th in BAPIP last year: .377. Thoughts?

If a player can sustain a high BABIP over a number of years then the odds of him regressing are relatively small. Holliday is young, has been approving for several years, and has had a BABIP of .333 and .351 the last two years. It seems like Holliday is joining the group of great hitters that, when they put the bat on the ball, will get hits to a greater degree than the average ML player.

In contrast, Upton does not have a proven record that he can sustain a .390 average on balls in play (almost no one can). Ordonez's is also a huge outlier comapred with his other years, going back from 2006 his BABIP; .315, .312, .291. Ordonez is most likely going to come back to the pack in '08.

by **mbuser** » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:31 pm

also look for changes in GB/LD/FB percentages -- a spike in LD% always leads to a spike in BABIP

i copy/pasted some batted ball data i found somewhere (i believe from the 2006 season) that blew me away:
GB - .236 AVG/.259 SLG/.236 BABIP
LD - .719 AVG/.948 SLG/.716 BABIP
FB - .265 AVG/.720 SLG/.167 BABIP