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Observations - undervalued players

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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby KronJon » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:04 pm

Pirates4Life wrote:Two of the most undervalued players I've seen are Nick Swisher and Kelly Johnson.

Swisher hit 35 HRs in Oakland a couple years ago and had a down year last year. But now he's in one of the best HR parks in baseball and he'll be protected by Thome, Konerko, and Dye in a much, MUCH better lineup. Better pitches to hit, more runs being scored, and lots of potential to be a huge steal for where he's being drafted. I won't be suprised when he ends up with a batting average around .275 with an OBP over .400, and I'll be shocked if his power doesn't at least return to where it was in 2006.

And I love Kelly Johnson too. With full-time duty, he's got a shot to be a top 5 2B hitting leadoff in that lineup. 20+ HRs, double digit steals, a batting average near .280 and an OBP 100 points higher. And he's only going to get better now that he doesn't have to learn how to play 2B anymore.


Johnson and Swisher definitely have the OBP going for them, but for good 'ol 5x5, there is still plenty of reason for concern, which is why they aren't valued higher.

Afer the All-star break, Johnson hit just .262 and stole only 2 bases. Project that over a full season, and you aren't looking at a very good fantasy player. So the question remains is which half is legit and what will you get out of him in 2008? Lets face it, Johnson has had one good half of a season, and that just isn't enough to confidently pick him as a "top 5 2B".

As for Swisher, he was just not good last year. Plain and simple. The guy hit for a low average and 22 homeruns, which just won't cut it in fantasy baseball with a guy that doesn't steal bases. You are predicting .275/.400 when he has never reached those numbers before... in fact his career line is .251/.361. His low average is a big liability and has to be made up for with high average guys, sort of like an Adam Dunn lite. As for calling last year a "down year" for Swisher, I don't know how you can come to that result when he has hit 21 HR, 35 HR, and then 22 HR. Looking at that, the 35 HR is the aberration. What it boils down to me, is the fact that he is really a .250 hitter who has never reached a slugging of .500 or higher. That is just plain ugly. If the league doesn't count BB's or OBP, I don't want that kind of liability on my team. For 5x5, I don't like what I've seen so far, and a change of scenery just isn't enough for me to have the kind of outlook on him that you have.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby AllDay » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:08 pm

Jason Bay and Verlander look to outperform alot of players selected ahead of them.

Tex is a top 25ish pick, so I think people are expecting big things there. I think 25 is about right. Pierre is a one cat add that probably is more a team specific own. Some fantasy teams really just aren't going to need a Juan Pierre.

Bay is still just 29, and 2005 & 2006 were 30 HR 100+ RBI seasons batting .306 & .286.

I don't see much difference in Verlander and Beckett - other than Beckett's injury history and slightly better ratios last year. Both guys have offense behind them and should get 18 wins or so and flirt with 200 K's with similar ERA and WHIP. You can get Verlander 3 rounds later - and he doesn't have a legion of former owners who have sworn to never own him again.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:49 pm

Pierre and his wet noodle of an "arm" will not get a lot of playing time unless someone is hurt. He could barely make throws from CF to 2B. You put him in corner OF, you'll see singles turning into doubles.

He may get a ton of pinch runs but he sucks at both sides of the ball and they ahve much better, capable players in the OF.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby mbuser » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:50 pm

AllDay wrote:Jason Bay and Verlander look to outperform alot of players selected ahead of them.

Tex is a top 25ish pick, so I think people are expecting big things there. I think 25 is about right. Pierre is a one cat add that probably is more a team specific own. Some fantasy teams really just aren't going to need a Juan Pierre.

Bay is still just 29, and 2005 & 2006 were 30 HR 100+ RBI seasons batting .306 & .286.

I don't see much difference in Verlander and Beckett - other than Beckett's injury history and slightly better ratios last year. Both guys have offense behind them and should get 18 wins or so and flirt with 200 K's with similar ERA and WHIP. You can get Verlander 3 rounds later - and he doesn't have a legion of former owners who have sworn to never own him again.

a pretty sizeable contingent will tell you to trade verlander at the A-S break
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:52 pm

Yoda wrote:Pierre and his wet noodle of an "arm" will not get a lot of playing time unless someone is hurt. He could barely make throws from CF to 2B. You put him in corner OF, you'll see singles turning into doubles.

He may get a ton of pinch runs but he sucks at both sides of the ball and they ahve much better, capable players in the OF.


This is the logical analysis, but logic hasn't always been used when writing out the lineup card.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his playing time this year. I'm not drafting him.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:56 pm

Pierre has always been kind of overrated. He's undervalued to the point that some are quick to write off that his PT is at 50% with Ethier or Kemp (looking more like he's platooning with Ethier), but he'll still prove useful anyway as a platoon OF ideally on your fantasy squad. A 1-2 with Furcal and Pierre up top is a potent punch of speed which will prove to have more merit in National League ball. Pierre doesn't have a ton of trade value given his contract and I doubt we deal him unless we're really out of the thick of things in the West. From what I know, management is still high on Ethier and would like to see his arm in play in LF more often as Pierre is a bigger liability at the corners than he is at CF.

Of the 3, I think they're closest to committing Kemp to a full-time job because he has the best bat and arm of the 3 OF. You won't find Pierre on my fantasy team unless his value really slips and have a strong enough OF not to play Pierre when he sits.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:12 pm

kab21 wrote:
Yoda wrote:Pierre and his wet noodle of an "arm" will not get a lot of playing time unless someone is hurt. He could barely make throws from CF to 2B. You put him in corner OF, you'll see singles turning into doubles.

He may get a ton of pinch runs but he sucks at both sides of the ball and they ahve much better, capable players in the OF.


This is the logical analysis, but logic hasn't always been used when writing out the lineup card.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his playing time this year. I'm not drafting him.


If he had even an average or slightly below average arm, then I would think he gets more ABs. But no one really know. Torre could be desensitized from watching Damon make throws in CF. Just hope he doesn't sit Kemp if he struggles early.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:36 pm

To Damon's credit, he hasn't had an OPS as low as Pierre's career average since 2001 with Oakland, although he was basically Juan Pierre last season until he got switched to LF when Matsui was hurting and actually looked pretty decent, at least better than Matsui. Pierre could at least be a nice leadoff hitter if he were gonig to stink it up defensively.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:08 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:So far this year I am in the midst of 3 auctions and 2 straight snake drafts and these are the 3 players so far that are IMO being really undervalued this year

Juan Pierre
So he is pretty much a one dimensional player but according to rototimes, using a straight 5x5 roto league with standard settings and a $260 cap, he earned $20.09 last year. The tenth most valuable OF in the majors last year, just ahead of Vlad. Last year he pretty much hit his 3-yr average in stats. So why is he so undervalued this year? No way that he is losing playing time to Kemp or Ethier. The Dodgers are not paying this ugly mutt $44 Mill to sit on the bench. The Dodgers were the 4th worst in baseball for homers last year but 8th best for BA so he will probably spend a lot of time running the bases. And I don't believe this talk about Torre not liking to steal, smart vets like Jeter and Damon were allowed to steal whenever they wanted to.


Mark Teixeira
An off year last year and good years but almost every other 1B in the league has significantly devalued Teix. He tore it up after the trade hitting .317 and more than an RBI/game. He's my pick to lead the league in RBI this year and should be a first rounder.

Jon Rauch
6'11" with a mid 90s fastball and 8K/9. The reliever most likely to get a closer job this year is not even being drafted in some leagues. He's a must in keeper leagues.




Mark Teixeira has probably been devalued by a lot of people because he moved from Texas - the same as Johan Santana has risen up the charts because he moved to the NL.

Jon Rauch is pretty good. I don't know which of him and Cordero get traded, but he will probably close for someone in 2008.

Juan Pierre - I'm not even going there.
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Re: Observations - undervalued players

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:28 pm

Swisher played through a lot of injuries last year so there is at least some reason to think the power dip was a fluke for him. He had hamstring problems all season which is kind of a scary injury since it is the type that repeats. If he can keep fully healthy I really like him this year but not sure I'd draft him on the assumption that he will stay healthy.
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