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Prospects over-rated because of defense?

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Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Field » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:32 pm

I'm talking strictly for fantasy purposes. Most prospect rankings out there factor in defense to their rankings, but, as we know, defense has nothing to do with fantasy baseball. As a result, some of the better defensive prospects get over-valued due to name recognition. Who are some of these guys?

I'll start: Pie (last year) & Andrew McCutchen
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:35 pm

Chin Lung Hu
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Steve-o » Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:58 pm

Jacoby Ellsbury.

BP just did an article about the best defenders in the minors. (subscription required) Maybe when I go home I'll download the spreadsheet, compare it to my list and share some more names...
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Steve-o » Thu Feb 21, 2008 3:01 pm

Field wrote:I'm talking strictly for fantasy purposes. Most prospect rankings out there factor in defense to their rankings, but, as we know, defense has nothing to do with fantasy baseball. As a result, some of the better defensive prospects get over-valued due to name recognition. Who are some of these guys?


Not quite. You have to be a good enough defender to get to the big leagues. Plus you have to be good enough to hold your position and not be moved into the OF. And you could lose PAs because you are substituted for late in games. It plays a role, just not a very large one.

(I guess I am kind of splitting hairs here).
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby DevilDriver » Thu Feb 21, 2008 4:08 pm

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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Steve-o » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:02 pm

Well, according to the defensive metrics I linked to above, the following players are significantly better than their counterparts defensively (and thus, probably over-valued for fantasy purposes). I only posted the guys who probably fall within your top 100.

Rasmus, Colby
Ellsbury, Jacoby
McCutchen, Andrew
Headley, Chase
Jennings, Desmond
Jackson, Austin
Andrus, Elvis
Hu, Chin-Lung
Jones, Brandon
Parra, Gerardo
Balentien, Wladimir
Hernadez, Gorkys
Fowler, Dexter
Duran, German

I also thought the converse might be true as well. If a prospect is very bad defensively, then he much be that much better offensively to make up for it. Here is a list of guys who are significantly worse defensively then their peers (and thus, should probably be bumped up a bit for your fantasy drafts).

Snider, Travis
Martinez, Fernando
LaPorta, Matt
Antonelli, Matt
Anderson, Lars
Kalish, Ryan
Rowell, Bill
Hodges, Wes
Weglarz, Nick
Gamel, Mat

Obviously, I am not going to adjust some of these players too much, but it is good info to know. There's also probably a difference between perception and reality with some of those guys.
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Field » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:42 pm

Steve-o wrote:Well, according to the defensive metrics I linked to above, the following players are significantly better than their counterparts defensively (and thus, probably over-valued for fantasy purposes). I only posted the guys who probably fall within your top 100.

Rasmus, Colby
Ellsbury, Jacoby
McCutchen, Andrew
Headley, Chase
Jennings, Desmond
Jackson, Austin
Andrus, Elvis
Hu, Chin-Lung
Jones, Brandon
Parra, Gerardo
Balentien, Wladimir
Hernadez, Gorkys
Fowler, Dexter
Duran, German

I also thought the converse might be true as well. If a prospect is very bad defensively, then he much be that much better offensively to make up for it. Here is a list of guys who are significantly worse defensively then their peers (and thus, should probably be bumped up a bit for your fantasy drafts).

Snider, Travis
Martinez, Fernando
LaPorta, Matt
Antonelli, Matt
Anderson, Lars
Kalish, Ryan
Rowell, Bill
Hodges, Wes
Weglarz, Nick
Gamel, Mat

Obviously, I am not going to adjust some of these players too much, but it is good info to know. There's also probably a difference between perception and reality with some of those guys.


Great insight, thanks for sharing. And, I do agree with what you said earlier about being competent enough on defense to get into the big leagues and hold your position once you get there. Obviously this isn't a huge concern, but in larger dynasty leagues this could play an important role.
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:21 am

Eh, I wouldn't want to bump Mat Gamel up that much, he's like god awful atrocious defensively, he supposedly makes Ryan Braun look passable at third and he's blocked at 1b and LF.

BJ Upton's bat was ready in '05 but he didn't get a full time job until '07 because he was so bad defensively until they finally moved him to CF where he belonged ages ago. Considering how brilliant a prospect he was, a far lesser guy like Gamel could see his ETA pushed back over a season if he can't find a position to play.
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Steve-o » Fri Feb 22, 2008 1:55 am

Grounded Polo wrote:Eh, I wouldn't want to bump Mat Gamel up that much, he's like god awful atrocious defensively, he supposedly makes Ryan Braun look passable at third and he's blocked at 1b and LF.

BJ Upton's bat was ready in '05 but he didn't get a full time job until '07 because he was so bad defensively until they finally moved him to CF where he belonged ages ago. Considering how brilliant a prospect he was, a far lesser guy like Gamel could see his ETA pushed back over a season if he can't find a position to play.


Yeah. He's terrible. He's 135 on my list, but I figured others might have him higher. He probably wont be drafted in any fantasy league anytime soon. I guessed at his ETA as 2011.

In general, the brewers are a black hole for defensive players in their minors. I wonder if that is an organziational philosophy or they have poor coaches in the lower minors or what... :-?
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Re: Prospects over-rated because of defense?

Postby Koby Schellenger » Fri Feb 22, 2008 11:55 am

Few more guys:
Taylor Teagarden
Brent Lillibridge
Bryan Anderson
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