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Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby in10s » Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:42 am

Will Roberto Kelly and the end of the Bonds "error" make a difference for Giants stealing? My guess is yes. Will it be dramatic? My guess is depends on the players more than the coach.

Here is a long two part story why I think so. It has to do with the joys of spring training and articles about how players/coaches/managers make big changes. I am new to fantasy baseball, this being my fourth season. But I got suckered my first year (before I discovered the cafe) and that experience plus the folks here have taught me to take these spring stories with a very large grain of salt.

I started in 2005, when Randolph took over from Art Howe as manager of the Mets. Randolph was going to light a base stealing fire under the Mets, and I drafted Cliff Floyd because, among other things, during Spring training he talked about stealing 25+ bases under his new manager.

Floyd had stolen 27 in 1998 and 24 in 2000, and with the talk of Randolph loving SB I figured it could happen. Well, Floyd had 11 SB the year before Wilie, and 12 the year after. He contributed to my fantasy team, but I learned my lesson about boasting during spring training.

For Part Two, it is interesting to note the impact Randolph had on the Mets SB totals. After all, he loves the speed game, and the Mets stole 200 bases in 2007. That must be because of Willie being the manager, right? So, from baseball-reference.com:

2007 200 SB (Reyes 78, Wright 34, Beltran 23 = 135) SB from other Mets 65
2006 146 SB (Reyes 64, Wright 20, Beltran 18 = 102) SB from other Mets 44
2005 153 SB (Reyes 60, Wright 17, Beltran 17 = 94) SB from other Mets 59
Randolph takes over from Art Howe
2004 107 SB (Reyes 19, Wright 6, Beltran n/a = 25) SB from other Mets 82
2003 70 SB (Reyes 13, Wright,n/a, Beltran n/a = 13) SB from other Mets 57
2002 87 SB (Reyes n/a Wright,n/a, Beltran n/a = 0) SB from other Mets 87

Did Randolph make a difference? I think so. It seems that another manager could have easily forced his big three stealers to tone it down.

But would Randolph had made a difference without Reyes, Wright and Beltran? Probably not as much.

So, back to what I said up top. Will Roberto Kelly and the end of the Bonds "error" make a difference for Giants stealing? My guess is yes. Will it be dramatic? My guess is depends on the players more than the coach.
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:34 am

Well first of all, you have to look at the manager. Is Bochy a guy that gives the green light? Also, look at his lineup support. Will they need to be aggressive on offense this year? Then looks at Rowand as a base stealer. Does he have good speed/instincts?

The answers point to him potentially running more this year but also he needs to stay healthy.
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby The Cow » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:37 am

I say Rowand could steal 25. The Giants will be trying to manufacture runs, I would think that they would try to run more. However, Rowand is a poor bet to score a 100 runs, IMO.

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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby jermhorse » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:59 am

The Cow wrote:I say Rowand could steal 25. The Giants will be trying to manufacture runs, I would think that they would try to run more. However, Rowand is a poor bet to score a 100 runs, IMO.

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I agree and I'm a Giant's Fan..... Basicly the giants are going to have to rely on individuals as opposssed to a solid lineup. I like rowand for 20+ steals but as for runs and rbi's :-o
I mean Benji is your powerman for christ's sake. I don't see any other approach Boochy could take, other than" green light on" for the SB. My prediction for Giants in '08 is 640 total runs. If they are going to get em, it's gonna have to be scrapy,


GO GIANTS!!!!!!! :-{
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby in10s » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:52 pm

Lets look at his stats:

Year team G SB
2004 CHW 140 17
2005 CHW 157 16
2006 PHI 109 10
2007 PHI 161 6

We are talking about 25+, that is, 50% more than he ever did before!! That doesn't seem reasonable to me.

So, I looked at some of the free projections listed in the thread at viewtopic.php?f=7&t=322625, they all have Rowand at single digit in steals. Projections are always a probability range, so even if someone projects Rowand at 10 steals, there is some probabilty he will break 20 or 25.

But I can't see putting more than a 1% probability on getting 25. If you want 20+, based on 2004/2005 and a better situation to run in SF, I can almost see that. But still that is probably around a 5% bet.

If you draft him based on the assumption that he gets 10 SB, you can then be happy with anything over if he does better. But to me the odds are way too long to take him based only on the assumption that he will get into the 20s.
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:05 pm

in10s wrote:Lets look at his stats:

Year team G SB
2004 CHW 140 17
2005 CHW 157 16
2006 PHI 109 10
2007 PHI 161 6

We are talking about 25+, that is, 50% more than he ever did before!! That doesn't seem reasonable to me.

So, I looked at some of the free projections listed in the thread at viewtopic.php?f=7&t=322625, they all have Rowand at single digit in steals. Projections are always a probability range, so even if someone projects Rowand at 10 steals, there is some probabilty he will break 20 or 25.

But I can't see putting more than a 1% probability on getting 25. If you want 20+, based on 2004/2005 and a better situation to run in SF, I can almost see that. But still that is probably around a 5% bet.

If you draft him based on the assumption that he gets 10 SB, you can then be happy with anything over if he does better. But to me the odds are way too long to take him based only on the assumption that he will get into the 20s.


Stranger things have happened. Look at Eric Byrnes. Never attempted more than 18 SBs in a season then 28 in 06 and 57 in 07!

In any case, it really depends on a lot of different variables. Also should have mentioned that players who sign big contracts tend to run less. I wouldn't count on 25 but maybe 15 or so just to be on the safe side.
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby CadensDad » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:40 pm

I think Rowand can steal 25, but I still wont draft him.
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Re: Anybody think Rowand could steal 25?

Postby Field » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:45 pm

CadensDad wrote:I think Rowand can steal 25, but I still wont draft him.


I feel the exact same way. This news doesn't change anything for me, he won't be on any of my teams.
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