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Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby socceryank » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:02 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:"But aren't those nagging injuries in 2 consecutive years a reason for concern?"

Yes and no. Obviously a player who can't stay healthy is a concern. But Crawford has managed to play through them and still post elite numbers. The word so far in ST is that nothing is bothering him. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I believe he will justify most of the hype. Obviously, if he starts complaining about an injury, then you should start discounting.


I can see your point; the injuries haven't hampered him much to date overall.

I am beginning to become swayed by the pro-Crawford contingent; now I am kinda hoping he makes it back to me at pick 15. A Holliday - Crawford tandem may lay a great foundation for a team.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby shasty mcnasty » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:16 am

socceryank wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:"But aren't those nagging injuries in 2 consecutive years a reason for concern?"

Yes and no. Obviously a player who can't stay healthy is a concern. But Crawford has managed to play through them and still post elite numbers. The word so far in ST is that nothing is bothering him. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I believe he will justify most of the hype. Obviously, if he starts complaining about an injury, then you should start discounting.


I can see your point; the injuries haven't hampered him much to date overall.

I am beginning to become swayed by the pro-Crawford contingent; now I am kinda hoping he makes it back to me at pick 15. A Holliday - Crawford tandem may lay a great foundation for a team.


yeah, i've had crawford for 2 or 3 years in a row...i'm one of those crawford fetish guys, i guess. i just love having him on my team. and previously, i've been able to have him and holliday as well, as both anchored winning teams for me the past couple years. but now holliday is so highly ranked that i'm thinking he'll be gone by the time i pick 8th, and then, when 13 rolls around, i'm afraid that there will be some player too good for me to leave on the table and thus, i may end up with neither Crawford or Holliday. Sigh. In my H2H league this year, i'm considering kinda punting steals anyway, so maybe this is a good year for me to break my Crawford habit.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby thejon » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:20 am

Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.

waiting on Crawford's power ... Year 6.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Kingmanarama » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:38 am

First of all, I'm pretty sure that calling out Carl Crawford in the OF Primer basically guarantees that this is the breakout season. That's how things go.

I think Ender's point about reliability is the strongest argument for Crawford. He really has been very consistent, particularly in steals: 55, 59, 46, 58, 50. And obviously that's his core category. Still, I don't think he's ever done enough to justify the high-end draft positions we're seeing. Last year it wasn't uncommon to see him go fifth overall in experts drafts.

I generally don't like giving my first-round picks credit for skills they haven't yet demonstrated. That's my bottom line with Crawford. Would it be a huge surprise if he hit 20-25 HR? No. But the guy is very much a line-drive/groundball hitter, so huge power numbers seem tough to reach.

I actually think the second player discussed in the Primer, Magglio, is much tougher to deal with in drafts. People love Cabrera in the first round because of the Tigers' lineup, but they hate Ordonez in the second. It's odd. That guy was great from '99-'02.

Anyway, thanks for the comments.

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:44 am

thejon wrote:
Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.

waiting on Crawford's power ... Year 6.


5 HR in 2003
11 HR in 2004
15 HR in 2005
18 HR in 2006
12 HR in 2007 (injured wrist)

I'm not sure what the problem is, he has progressed in power exactly like expected until the injured wrist last year.

You can argue all you want that Crawford isn't worth a 1st round pick this year but he HAS put up 1st round type value for 5 years in a row for roto, if you are arguing against that your valuation system is just messed up. Sure he might not always have been one of the top 12 players but that is a goofy way to judge things since you always have some Carlos Pena or Maglio Ordonez types who way overproduce each year. Very few players have matched his value over the past 4 years and he has earned at least $31 each of those 4 years.
Last edited by Ender on Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:47 am

thejon wrote:
Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.

waiting on Crawford's power ... Year 6.


Still only 26 yo. Power spike will almost definitely come. Maybe not this year or the next but it will.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Secret Avatar » Wed Mar 05, 2008 6:07 pm

"waiting on Crawford's power ... Year 6."

He's 26. You were expecting him to hit 20+ HR at age 19 or 20? :-?

He hit 18 HR at age 24. His power was ramping up nicely (5, 11, 15, 18) until last year when he was bothered by a wrist injury. Will he take another step up in 2008 to 20 HR? If he healthy, I say yes. If he's not, then it's unlikely.

My advice is to pay him as a rock-solid 300-15-50 guy with a few extra bucks for upside. That lands him in the 12-15 round range of a 12-team 5x5 roto mixed league.
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