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Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BuckeyeSal » Mon Mar 03, 2008 12:12 pm

For me there is also the bust factor that comes into play. If you're taking him in the 2nd round and he doesn't get hurt he'll be top 30 player just due to the steals that he'll get and his BA being at or above 300. I drafted Hafner late/middle of the 2nd round last year and it probably cost me a title. There are players that people might want to draft ahead of him that have much more risk in terms of not producing in top 50 or 70 for you that I don't think comes in to play for CC. He's a safe pick with a some upside(could be a 1st rounder if he does find some power)
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby dukesimms » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:27 am

12 team roto
Howard at no. 12 Crawford at 15!
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Bwanna » Tue Mar 04, 2008 9:45 am

In our 12 team dynasty, I took Crawford at 1.12, Ortiz went at 2.05. Had it been a redraft, I probably wouldn't have taken Crawford at 1.12, and I'm guessing Ortiz wouldn't have been available at 1.12.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:07 pm

Likely this thread is the product of some (questionable IMO) advice from fantasy "experts" on yahoo that Crawford is not a top-20 guy. I would not take that advice. I think part of that advice is frustration with waiting for Crawford to realize his "power potential" that had hyped him as a first rounder for the last three years. But it is important to remember that he is still only 26 and that he has not been 100 percent the last 2 years.

What do you look for in a 1st or second round pick? I look for three things: proven elite numbers, upside potential, and rock-solid stability. Crawford clearly has all these things. He has already posted elite numbers: 300+ BA, 15+ HR, 75+ RBI, 95+ runs, and 50+ steals. He also has upside potential. He's still only 26. He hit 18 HR at age 25. He's also been hampered by nagging injuries through 2006 and 2007 (wrist, ankle, leg, etc.) that likely effected both his power and speed. In a full healthy year, he could post 320-22-85-100-60. And finally, he's been as rock-solidly consistent as any player the last three years. If I recall, in each of the past 3 years he has been in the top 30 by yahoo rankings at the end of the year (based on actual production, not projections)

What does all this mean? To me, it means that if I'm sitting with a pick in the 12 to 20 range, after all the elite-of-the-elite are gone, I'm gonna grab Crawford if he's still there.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby JakeTrain72 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:43 pm

What you need to know about Crawford entering into 08 drafts:

If you have the chance to make Crawford the SECOND player on your team there is no thought required, you just take him and look towards round 3. If you have to think about it, you probably think he is overrated and won't be getting him on any teams.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:46 pm

"If you have the chance to make Crawford the SECOND player on your team there is no thought required, you just take him and look towards round 3. If you have to think about it, you probably think he is overrated and won't be getting him on any teams."

That is very good advice. Drafting him as your 1st player is a tough call. But as the second, it's a no-brainer and especially if your first pick was a big bopper.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby socceryank » Tue Mar 04, 2008 2:43 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:Likely this thread is the product of some (questionable IMO) advice from fantasy "experts" on yahoo that Crawford is not a top-20 guy. I would not take that advice. I think part of that advice is frustration with waiting for Crawford to realize his "power potential" that had hyped him as a first rounder for the last three years. But it is important to remember that he is still only 26 and that he has not been 100 percent the last 2 years.

What do you look for in a 1st or second round pick? I look for three things: proven elite numbers, upside potential, and rock-solid stability. Crawford clearly has all these things. He has already posted elite numbers: 300+ BA, 15+ HR, 75+ RBI, 95+ runs, and 50+ steals. He also has upside potential. He's still only 26. He hit 18 HR at age 25. He's also been hampered by nagging injuries through 2006 and 2007 (wrist, ankle, leg, etc.) that likely effected both his power and speed. In a full healthy year, he could post 320-22-85-100-60. And finally, he's been as rock-solidly consistent as any player the last three years. If I recall, in each of the past 3 years he has been in the top 30 by yahoo rankings at the end of the year (based on actual production, not projections)

What does all this mean? To me, it means that if I'm sitting with a pick in the 12 to 20 range, after all the elite-of-the-elite are gone, I'm gonna grab Crawford if he's still there.


But aren't those nagging injuries in 2 consecutive years a reason for concern?
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BJSFAN123 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 5:02 pm

JakeTrain72 wrote:What you need to know about Crawford entering into 08 drafts:

If you have the chance to make Crawford the SECOND player on your team there is no thought required, you just take him and look towards round 3. If you have to think about it, you probably think he is overrated and won't be getting him on any teams.


Agreed here.

I would take Crawford ahead of Braun,Soriano,Sizmore, Beltran, and Guerrero for sure...no questions asked.

I'd have to think about Ortiz vs Crawford....depending on who my 1st rounder was.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:54 pm

"But aren't those nagging injuries in 2 consecutive years a reason for concern?"

Yes and no. Obviously a player who can't stay healthy is a concern. But Crawford has managed to play through them and still post elite numbers. The word so far in ST is that nothing is bothering him. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I believe he will justify most of the hype. Obviously, if he starts complaining about an injury, then you should start discounting.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Dan Charette » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:30 pm

I've done a lot of research on stolen bases this off season. According to projections , there will be about 30 players who will steal 25 or more bases. 16 of these players have ADP in the first 3 rounds. If you don't get speed early, then it may be hard to come by without reaching a little. That's part of the reason that Crawford is a great pick at the end of round 1 or the beginning of round 2.
For those who have 11th or 12th pick in a 12 team draft, It would be sweet to get Howard or Fielder then Crawford.
The drafters that don't like Crawford. Well Thank-You in advance.
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