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Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:51 pm

Wow, Crawford vs. Ortiz is not even close to a debate.

Ortiz will destroy Crawford in every category except for steals; Especially now that Crawford is at the top of the order compared to 3rd - his RBI numbers will drop significantly, and he'll be back to 100 runs 60 rbi 10-15 homers and 50 steals. Even if he gets to 20 homers, he's not worth a 1st round (or even 2nd round) pick.

Ortiz will have 50+ more RBI and 30+ more homers. Also likely 10-20 more runs and a higher batting average.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:21 pm

Where did you hear that Crawford was going to be at the top of the order? He's been batting 2nd in ST.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:30 pm

Even if he gets to 20 homers, he's not worth a 1st round (or even 2nd round) pick.


You must really not like Crawford if you say he's not worth a 2nd-round pick even if he hits 20 homers... are you really saying in a 12-team league for example that there's 24 guys you'd pick before him even if he had 20 homers to go along with everything else that he does? I think you're going a little far in trying to prove your point with that statement.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby bclay » Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:53 pm

Great discussion guys. But let me throw a twist in here - how about in a roto league that counts triples? Does he warrant a top 15 pick then? I think he probably does...
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby raiders_umpire » Sat Mar 01, 2008 5:06 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:He's actually 26. Almost 27.



Crawford is 26, but to help Ender and Yoda out, last year was his age 25 season as he played 2/3 of the season as the age of 25, so he was considered 25 last year, just like he will be 26 this year.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/crawfca02.shtml
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Mar 01, 2008 5:45 pm

BillyHallDisciple wrote:
Even if he gets to 20 homers, he's not worth a 1st round (or even 2nd round) pick.


You must really not like Crawford if you say he's not worth a 2nd-round pick even if he hits 20 homers... are you really saying in a 12-team league for example that there's 24 guys you'd pick before him even if he had 20 homers to go along with everything else that he does? I think you're going a little far in trying to prove your point with that statement.


If Crawford finished 2008 with 20 homers - a line of: .301 20hr 96r 73rbi 46sb, by my calculations (based on every one else's '08 projections) it would make him the 18th most valuable hitter (in addition to the likely guys: Rollins, Utley, Ortiz, Braun, Sizemore, Soriano, Vlad, Beltran) and I have 2 pitchers ranked ahead of him: Santana, Peavy.

That would make him the 20th highest rank person, which would make him a 2nd round pick for less than half the people in a 12 team league. That's also not factoring in positional strength.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby MashinSpuds » Sat Mar 01, 2008 6:19 pm

bclay wrote:Great discussion guys. But let me throw a twist in here - how about in a roto league that counts triples? Does he warrant a top 15 pick then? I think he probably does...

I think you're right. Not too many are fast enough to get to third base on a usual double. Even I have trouble sometimes with that in the bar scene. :-D
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby pattylinboy » Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:25 pm

nice. i knew this would render a good discussion.


i think in conclusion crawford is a high risk-high reward hitter. If he reaches 20-25 HRs this year, you are in for a treat. If he stays on the same statistical stratum of last year (11-18ish homeruns), then you have, in a way, wasted your pick on him.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 01, 2008 11:27 pm

Well I won't be able to convince you that it is wrong to pass on him late 1st, early 2nd since your evaluation system is just completely different than mine obviously. I'll just be happy that people continue to misvalue AVG and SB so I can get players at a discount in my roto leagues :).

Even if Crawford hits 15 HRs he wasn't a wasted pick. There are not 13 hitters who have been better than him in each of the last two seasons, he isn't an exciting 1st round pick in a 14 team league, but there is something to be said for consistent stats.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby quitesanemax » Sat Mar 01, 2008 11:58 pm

This thread has convinced me that if he is available late in the first round of my 16 team league, I will pick him up... so he probably won't be... or I'll have an early pick. Lol.
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