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Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

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Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby stealthdevil » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:25 am

I put a formula together based heavily on ultimate ceiling. Here are the yankees pitching prospects I ranked.

Code: Select all
Joba Chamberlain   13.20
Andrew Brackman   12.80
Dellin Betances   12.20
Humberto Sanchez   12.10
Christian Garcia   12.00
Ian Kennedy    11.40
Jairo Heredia   11.20
Ivan Nova   11.10
Alan Horne   10.20
George Kontos   10.10
Mark Melancon   10.00
Jeff Marquez   9.90
Arodys Vizcaino   9.60
Ryan Pope   9.20
Daniel McCutchen   8.80
Michael Dunn   8.80
Zach McAllister   8.60
Fransisco Castillo   8.60
Steven White   8.40
Kevin Whelan   8.30
JB Cox   8.10
David Robertson   6.80
Jonathan Albaladejo    6.30
Grant Duff   5.60
Francisco Rondon   1.20
Wilkens De-La-Rosa   0.40
Francisco Gil   0.30
Jose Ramirez   0.10
Last edited by stealthdevil on Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby Steve-o » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:46 am

I don't see Ian Kennedy in that list...

Also, I know you weighted it for "ultimate ceiling" but Humberto is a little high still.
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby talan37 » Wed Feb 20, 2008 6:13 pm

How exactly are you getting those numbers and what do they actually represent? Just an arbitrary "ceiling" number? Could you thrown in the minor league numbers or whatever you used of a well-known player to make a comparison between an actual major league player?

How exactly does your formula rate say Christian Garcia ahead of Ian Kennedy? I realize your talking about "ultimate ceiling" but still...

Kennedy's numbers are better in basically every single way than Garcias, except for GB% and Garcia is only slightly younger(8 months) and has never played above A ball. I realize when talking about ceiling you need to presumably include things like build/stuff etc... but i would think considering his nearly 4 era, and poor whip as well as other numbers in 3 minor league seasons at or below A level. His k/9 is good, but hes 22 facing A level players...As another example, him and chamberlain are about the same age, but chamberlains numbers are incredibly better across the board and that includes innings at AA/AAA/mlb.

Let me stress I am not trying to tear you down at all, but at a quick glance it seems like you might have some problems with your methods :-)
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby stealthdevil » Sat Feb 23, 2008 12:17 am

hey guys, thanks for the feedback. Sorry I didn't give more info at first, but I was kinda in a rush...at work actually ;-D .What I've been trying to do w/ these rankings is find a way to rank pitchers for long term fantasy value. Most all of the prospect rankings that sites like BA and BP come out w/ are based on how much guys will help there team instead of what kind of fantasy player they will be. The formula is still a work in progress and I do appreciate any feedback I can get to improve it. I'm trying to figure out what to give the most weight to. I don't really see how it can be very well based on minor league stats since guys are working on specific things and not necessarily using the pitches that work the best all the time in the minor leagues.

Ceiling: 2 = relief/spot starter, 3 = back of rotation SP/Closer
Ceiling: 4 = mid rotation SP/Elite CL, 5,6 = top of rotation, 7 = ACE
Intangable: .1=concerns, .2 = no probs, .3 = Good .4 = Off charts
Frame: .1,.2,.3,.4
Lefty: .1,.3
K: .1, .3= less than K/inn, .7= K/inn, .8=slightly above K/inn, .9=amazing
BB: .1=terrible, .3=too high, .5=not a prob, .7=hardly ever
Injury: .1=reoccuring issues/shoulder,.2=injury bug .3=current TJ, .4=minor issues/just recovered from TJ, .5=issue in past, .6=healthy
Performance: .1=bad,.2=some flashes,.3=pretty solid,.4=consistent through low levels,.5=consistent through many levels
Command: .1=erratic, .2=plenty of room to improve, .3 Good, .4 Solid for most pitches, .5 impeccable
Usable Pitch = .1 per, Avg. Pitch = .3 per, Above Avg Pitch = .5 per, +Pitch = .7 per
Experience:.1=Latin signee, .2 = HS/Rookie League, .3= -A/+A, .4=+A/AA, .5 = AA/AAA, .6=AAA/Majors
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby stealthdevil » Sat Feb 23, 2008 12:20 am

here's a couple examples....hopefully the format is readable.

Team Name Ceiling K BB Exp Inj InT Frm Perf LHP UP AP AAP PP CMD Rating
NYY Joba Chamberlain 7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 0.4 13.20
NYY Andrew Brackman 7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 2.1 0.3 12.80
NYY Dellin Betances 7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.2 12.20
NYY Humberto Sanchez 6 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.4 12.10
NYY Christian Garcia 7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.3 12.00
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby talan37 » Sat Feb 23, 2008 10:47 am

While you can't use _only_ minor league numbers, you have to use some past performance markers which include college and minor leagues. Its pointless saying a guy who has a 6era in the minor leagues has a high ceiling, because the odds of him actually getting to the majors is pretty low, and even if he does, if he can't get minor league players out, hes going to be useless in the majors. I am sure this isn't exactly true for everyone, but more guys fail than move on, and most of the guys who move on have at least passable minor league numbers.
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby mission27 » Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:49 pm

I would rank yankees piching prospects more like this

1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Ian Kenedey
3. Dellin Batances
4. Alan Horne
5. Jeff Marquez
6. Andrew Brackman
7. Christain Garcia
8. Jairo Heredia
9. Humberto Sanchez (I have him lower because I think of him more as a RP)
10. Ryan Pope
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:46 pm

Watched a Hawaii Winter game last week and Kontos freakin lit it up. Something like 11 Ks in 5 IP I think.
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby stealthdevil » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:31 am

Omaha Red Sox wrote:Watched a Hawaii Winter game last week and Kontos freakin lit it up. Something like 11 Ks in 5 IP I think.

I've heard the Yankees are expecting big things from Kontos and Melancon this season.
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Re: Ranking Yankee Pitching Prospects

Postby stealthdevil » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:33 am

mission27 wrote:I would rank yankees piching prospects more like this

1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Ian Kenedey
3. Dellin Batances
4. Alan Horne
5. Jeff Marquez
6. Andrew Brackman
7. Christain Garcia
8. Jairo Heredia
9. Humberto Sanchez (I have him lower because I think of him more as a RP)
10. Ryan Pope

based on what?
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