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Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

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Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:51 pm

Pedroia, 24, is the reigning American League Rookie of the Year. But while the criticism of him has almost completely faded, Pedroia remains a symbol of the divide between the scouting and statistical communities — a divide that can be as bitterly partisan as the Republican-Democrat split that is apparent even in Congressional hearings about steroids.

The political knuckleheads might never come around, but baseball people need not follow. The rise of Pedroia only reinforces that player evaluation is an imperfect science. Scouts miss, analysts miss, writers miss and even the best general managers miss, too. That’s what happens when you judge human beings.

“I think all that’s funny,” Pedroia says, referring to the scouts’ criticisms. “Those people don’t play anymore. They just try to evaluate. Whatever they say, that’s fine. They can have their opinion. If they win a World Series, good for them. But guess what? I already have.”

..."That’s what baseball is — performance,” Pedroia says. “Call it ‘Moneyball’ or whatever. I just call it playing baseball. When that book came out, they started drafting guys who can play, like Youk. Youk was a big focus in that book. Look at him. He’s a great baseball player. He doesn’t have the body of this guy or that guy. But he gets it done.

“Scouts are going to say whatever: ‘I like the guy who looks good in a uniform, hits home runs in batting practice, runs fast.’ But when 7 o’clock hits, what’s he going to do then? That’s what matters. Nothing else matters but that.”

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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:37 pm

PECOTA pegged him for a line of .294/.360/.431/.791 last year so the computer believed in him! He just hit a few more singles than it expected.
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Philliebuster » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:30 pm

I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:35 pm

Philliebuster wrote:I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?

One would think that batting first or second in the Red Sox lineup would lead to prime run scoring opportunities.
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Matthias » Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:22 am

Philliebuster wrote:I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?

Funny. You're the first person I've ever seen who thinks that a 24-year old player will, "top out" at basically their last-year rookie totals.
Your, "top out" line for Pedroia: .320, 10HR, 10SB, 60RBI
2007 Pedroia: .317, 8HR, 7SB, 50RBI

That said, I'm not sure what hype you're referring to. CBS has his him ranked as their 15th-best 2B; Fox Sports has him 15th; RotoAuthority has him 14th; he went 17th in a Cafe Mock. Are you such a fan of Luis Castillo that you can't stand to see him snubbed from the 15th spot or what?
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Feb 19, 2008 12:53 am

Matthias wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?

Funny. You're the first person I've ever seen who thinks that a 24-year old player will, "top out" at basically their last-year rookie totals.
Your, "top out" line for Pedroia: .320, 10HR, 10SB, 60RBI
2007 Pedroia: .317, 8HR, 7SB, 50RBI

That said, I'm not sure what hype you're referring to. CBS has his him ranked as their 15th-best 2B; Fox Sports has him 15th; RotoAuthority has him 14th; he went 17th in a Cafe Mock. Are you such a fan of Luis Castillo that you can't stand to see him snubbed from the 15th spot or what?



that says he went in the 21st ;-)
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Matthias » Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:10 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?

Funny. You're the first person I've ever seen who thinks that a 24-year old player will, "top out" at basically their last-year rookie totals.
Your, "top out" line for Pedroia: .320, 10HR, 10SB, 60RBI
2007 Pedroia: .317, 8HR, 7SB, 50RBI

That said, I'm not sure what hype you're referring to. CBS has his him ranked as their 15th-best 2B; Fox Sports has him 15th; RotoAuthority has him 14th; he went 17th in a Cafe Mock. Are you such a fan of Luis Castillo that you can't stand to see him snubbed from the 15th spot or what?

that says he went in the 21st ;-)

17th 2B, not 17th round. But thanks for making sure I'm kept honest.
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Feb 19, 2008 1:14 am

ah i was confused. sorry my man.

either way, i dont see much upside, and i compare him to freddy sanchez (who also hit for a ridiculously high avg and can be had around the time). i wouldnt draft either personally.
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby The Big Train » Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:29 am

I'm glad to see someone post something positive about the guy. I don't see the downside of using a later pick on a guy who will likely contribute solidly across three categories, particularly if:

1. you are in a larger league and/or aren't sold on using an earlier pick on a mid-tier 2B; If I can get enough power/RBI's elswhere in my lineup I'll be comfortable passing on mid-tier 2B and get soild three category production from Pedroia instead.
2. you need a counter-balance to low average sluggers like Dunn, Burrell or Andruw,
3. you are punting a category and want as much production in other categories like H, AVG, and R, or
4. your league uses extra categories like doubles, OBP, or OPS. Pedroia's 39 doubles in 520 at-bats makes his SLG/OPS that much more tolerable given the few HR's.

He was terrific last year when I picked him up at SS on Shandler's recommendation after I got stuck with Khalil Greene in a 16-team leauge. Greene's 27 bombs and 97 RBI's are nice, but that's all he did. In 91 fewer AB's than Greene, Pedroia scored just 3 fewer runs, had 10 more hits, had an average 63 points higher and an OPS 64 points higher. After April, it was only July (.299) that he failed to hit .300 for any month. I'm betting that .315 + might become his norm. Given natural progression and how hard he swings, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a dozen homers will become regular for him either. I'm also hoping this year will end the Eckstein comparisons for good.
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Re: Pedroia proving naysayers wrong

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:54 am

Philliebuster wrote:I don't understand the hype here from a fantasy perspective, help me if I am missing something, but no power, no speed, and a .300-.310 hitter. He'll top out at a 10/10 season hitting .320 with 60 rbi. What am I missing here?

This post is pretty ironic, given the original article posted by bigh0rt. Obviously Pedroia is never going to be a 30-30 guy or even a 20-20 guy, but given that he already reached the levels you quote in his rookie year (86 R, 8 HRs, 7 SBs, 50 RBIs, .320 in only 520 ABs), I think its safe to say his ceiling is somewhat higher. We're talking about a guy you can draft in the late rounds who won't kill you in any category - true, he may only reach 12-15 HRs, 70-75 RBIs, and 12-15 SBs this year but he'll also give you a great chance at a .320 average and well over 100 runs batting in front of Ortiz and Manny (assuming he hits second). There's value there, even if just as a reserve, depending on your league type.
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