I was not trying to make a precise calculation, simply an analogy of a guy who has so much value tied up in one category, if that categories exceptionalness, or "likelyhood" of exceptionalness goes away then that player will lose value. If reyes only had 40 steals a year I doubt he would go in the first round.
Not sure what your trying to argue with the projections, the ADP, draft position are all based on mathematical projections of some kind, whether the player has been in the league for 2 years or 20. If you are a believer in a certain player, or like what have read then you can tick up a player some ranks, or if you don't believe you tick them down a bit. You might ignore the actual numbers, but if your using any sort of ADP, draft ranking, or anything aside from just looking at a guys name; then your using mathematical projections, either directly or indirectly.
Does that mean projections/rankings etc are always true... of course not, and applying some measure of our own personal experience or our insight onto the original projection is a good way to determine player value, and thus your draft strategy. If people expected him to hit .280-35-100-90-5 which would be a modest improvement over his 2006 numbers(+.20 average, +5 hrs, -3rbi, +7runs, +4 steals), i doubt he would be going between 80-120(mostly around 100ish) in drafts. But most projections put him "roughly" in the middle of his 06' and '07 numbers, which corresponds pretty closely to his current ADP.
AussieDodger wrote:What a shame all those big muscles won't help him to walk more.
chipper wrote:God, does anyone remember that Frenchy is only starting his 3rd full year? You guys make it sound like he's been around for forever and hasn't made any strides. The guy hit for very good average last year, hit a decent number of homeruns, and drove in over a hundred runs for the second straight year. Oh yeah, and he doubled his walks (which wasn't hard to do, but it shows he's working on it).
The numbers he's put up in his short career have been very good, and his approach at the plate is definitely improving. Who knows what the added muscle will really do for him, all I know is I'll take a chance on a guy who's going into only his 3rd full season, has shown improvement each year, and is around that 27 yr old age where players breakout.
AussieDodger wrote:His .330 minor league OBP says it is unlikely to improve. In a non-fantasy sense he is only half a player in my eyes.
He's not even half a player now. He's gone from "league average" to a Juan Pierre OPS rather quickly.
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Early in the pre-season I was somewhat intrigued by Francoeur; however, both of my main leagues count OPS as the 6th category and I didn't want to take an outfielder in the top 10 rounds who would hurt me in the category.
I was never very impressed by Francoeur at any point in his short career. He reminded me a lot of Vernon Wells (a low OBP power outfielder), but just generally worse overall. I tend to avoid these guys in fantasy drafts. Jeff has a .724 OPS in his career agaisnt righties, that's simply not going to cut it. He's going to make it back into the majors at some point, and could still find a niche as a platoon outfielder, but he's going to have to figure out how to hit right-handed pitching to be a truly successful player in the bigs.