I am a Francoeur fan and drafted him last year for 4$.. which is near the end of the OF. I think people are hesitant is because a lot of his value is tied up in his hr's. 19 just doesn't cut it, and frankly low 20's doesn't either imo. Many people expected him to at least match his '06 performance if not improve because of his age. The mathematical projections for him in '08 simply don't look that good.
Imagine if Reyes who had stolen 60 bases in his first full year, then stole 20 the next year. Because so much of his value comes from his SB, and there really isn't a good explanation for why they went down, it tends to make the 60 look like the anomaly and 20 look like the norm. Which would drop his value.(The above is theoretical obviously, but the analogy is relevant).
The year they signed Francoeur I was relaxing in the LF stands during BP. Next thing I know somebody is launching balls into and over the bleachers in left and left center field. We were checking our programs to see who the hell it was. Somebody finally said that's Francouer, they just signed him and they are letting him take some BP at Turner Field I don't care if they were grooving every pitch down the middle, the kid put on a show!
It would not surprise me if the kid reaches 40 homers someday...maybe this year (although I wouldn't bet on that)
If God does not like the way I'm living my life, he can tell me himself.
Well he is still young enough to develop that type of power, I'd be willing to bet on him getting there in another year or two, but would much rather see his AVG/OBP rise and his homer stay around the 30-35 mark and give me a solid AVG/OBP
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talan37 wrote:I am a Francoeur fan and drafted him last year for 4$.. which is near the end of the OF. I think people are hesitant is because a lot of his value is tied up in his hr's. 19 just doesn't cut it, and frankly low 20's doesn't either imo. Many people expected him to at least match his '06 performance if not improve because of his age. The mathematical projections for him in '08 simply don't look that good.
I don't understand what "mathematical" projections are... the only math to apply in this case is that his HRs dropped from 29 to 19 in his first two full years. There isn't enough data there to make a mathematical projection of his HRs. Are you assuming a 33% drop every year? So he'll only hit 14 HRs this year?
talan37 wrote:Imagine if Reyes who had stolen 60 bases in his first full year, then stole 20 the next year. Because so much of his value comes from his SB, and there really isn't a good explanation for why they went down, it tends to make the 60 look like the anomaly and 20 look like the norm. Which would drop his value.(The above is theoretical obviously, but the analogy is relevant).
Actually, the analogy is not relevant at all. For it to be even slightly relevant, you'd have to say "Imagine if Reyes who had stolen 60 bases in his first full year, then stole 40 the next year". Now it doesn't look so bad. Then you'd ask yourself why the number dropped by 1/3, for which there could be MANY reasons (injury, bad luck, mechanics, skills declining).
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by talan37 » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:57 pm 
