talan37 wrote:I am a Francoeur fan and drafted him last year for 4$.. which is near the end of the OF. I think people are hesitant is because a lot of his value is tied up in his hr's. 19 just doesn't cut it, and frankly low 20's doesn't either imo. Many people expected him to at least match his '06 performance if not improve because of his age. The mathematical projections for him in '08 simply don't look that good.
I don't understand what "mathematical" projections are... the only math to apply in this case is that his HRs dropped from 29 to 19 in his first two full years. There isn't enough data there to make a mathematical projection of his HRs. Are you assuming a 33% drop every year? So he'll only hit 14 HRs this year?
talan37 wrote:Imagine if Reyes who had stolen 60 bases in his first full year, then stole 20 the next year. Because so much of his value comes from his SB, and there really isn't a good explanation for why they went down, it tends to make the 60 look like the anomaly and 20 look like the norm. Which would drop his value.(The above is theoretical obviously, but the analogy is relevant).
Actually, the analogy is not relevant at all. For it to be even slightly relevant, you'd have to say "Imagine if Reyes who had stolen 60 bases in his first full year, then stole 40
the next year". Now it doesn't look so bad. Then you'd ask yourself why the number dropped by 1/3, for which there could be MANY reasons (injury, bad luck, mechanics, skills declining).
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"