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Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:52 am

Amazinz wrote:The point is is that Philadelphia's offensive numbers are inflated due to the ballpark and that you cannot deduce that the offense is better simply because of runs scored.

The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road and the Phillies road offense was still the #1 offense in the NL. They got some advantage for their home field but it really wasn't that big of a deal.

I don't think the NL East is such a slam dunk for the Mets on paper. Their pitching obviously got stronger, but that advantage could go away fairly quickly if Perez and Hernandez go back to their 05 and 06 performances. The offense should still be solid, Church should be a small step up from Green to offset the small loss of LoDuca to Schneider. But there has to be some concern about Beltran coming off surgery on both knees, a 41 year old Alou in LF, and almost no bench after Chavez and Anderson.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Amazinz » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:04 am

Tavish wrote:The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road and the Phillies road offense was still the #1 offense in the NL.

The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road by 5 runs. At home by 83. It's a pretty big deal. And I'm not denying that the Phillies offense is great, maybe even the best in the league, just that the top three offenses in the NL East are very close and the inflated runs scored at home do not prove otherwise.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby great gretzky » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:07 am

They outscored the Mets on the road by five, they still outscored them, and again, they had injuries. They outscored them at home, but last time I checked, they still get to play at home, no? You can slice it all you want, but at the end of the day, the phils offense was better, especially considering the injury factor. and yea, they lost rowand, but adding jenkins and feliz will probably be better than rowand and helms.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby SignGuy » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:12 am

The Mets are the team to beat this season, just like they were last year. Rollins prediction that the Phils were the team to beat was incorrect. The Mets were, and its just so happened that they did get beaten. The Mets were in the lead the whole time until they collapsed so they were in fact the team to beat. Noone had to beat the Phils to get to the post season, they had to beat the Mets, and they did. Im not taking anything away from the Phils or Rollins but this whole notion that Rollins made a correct prediction is wrong. Phils were never the "team to beat" at any point during last season.

As for this season, the Phils were the team to beat until Johan arrived. Its got to be the Mets now
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:14 am

Amazinz wrote:
Tavish wrote:The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road and the Phillies road offense was still the #1 offense in the NL.

The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road by 5 runs. At home by 83. It's a pretty big deal. And I'm not denying that the Phillies offense is great, maybe even the best in the league, just that the top three offenses in the NL East are very close and the inflated runs scored at home do not prove otherwise.

The Phillies scored 8 more runs at home than they did on the road. I wouldn't consider that a real significant inflation.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Snakes Gould » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:22 am

Tavish wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
Tavish wrote:The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road and the Phillies road offense was still the #1 offense in the NL.

The Phillies outscored the Mets on the road by 5 runs. At home by 83. It's a pretty big deal. And I'm not denying that the Phillies offense is great, maybe even the best in the league, just that the top three offenses in the NL East are very close and the inflated runs scored at home do not prove otherwise.

The Phillies scored 8 more runs at home than they did on the road. I wouldn't consider that a real significant inflation.


ding. you cant penalize the phils for playing at CBP. their home field is their home field, and off the top of my head a few phillies pitchers had better home stats, than road (i.e. cole hamels).

now dont get me wrong, im not arguing that the phils were or are the team to beat. living in philadelphia, im used to the constant let downs and disappointments. the mets were the team to beat last year and are this year, simply because of the hype. that doesnt mean i think they're better than the phils, or braves, or marlins (they probably are), it just goes with the hype. the yankees are the team to beat for everyone in the al every year. doesnt mean they're the best.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:27 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
The Phillies seemed to all be at the maximum you could expect of them in 2007, and they JUST beat an "eh" Mets team. That won't happen this year.


so you think missing chase utley for 6 weeks, howard for 3 (and an additional 3 since he was trying to fight through the injury) myers for over a month, gordon for almost 2 months, madson for 3 months, hamels for a month....all maximum?

A full year out of Howard and Utley will be a rice boost but Rollins, Burrell, and Rowand all had career years in 2006. Rowand and Iguchi are being replaced by Jenkins and Feliz both downgrades IMO.

Myers to the rotation is the biggest boost that I see. If Hamels throws 200 innings I'd be shocked.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:34 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
The Phillies seemed to all be at the maximum you could expect of them in 2007, and they JUST beat an "eh" Mets team. That won't happen this year.


so you think missing chase utley for 6 weeks, howard for 3 (and an additional 3 since he was trying to fight through the injury) myers for over a month, gordon for almost 2 months, madson for 3 months, hamels for a month....all maximum?

A full year out of Howard and Utley will be a rice boost but Rollins, Burrell, and Rowand all had career years in 2006. Rowand and Iguchi are being replaced by Jenkins and Feliz both downgrades IMO.

Myers to the rotation is the biggest boost that I see. If Hamels throws 200 innings I'd be shocked.


Burrell was basically the same player in 2007 as he was in 2006 and 2005. Rowand's production in the OF was a big key and replacing those ABs with Jenkins is definitely a downgrade, but replacing the complete ineptitude that was Abraham Nunez with Feliz is just as much of an upgrade assuming Feliz can get back to just to league average. Feliz was awful last year but still light years ahead of Nunez at the plate.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:47 am

Tavish wrote:Burrell was basically the same player in 2007 as he was in 2006 and 2005. Rowand's production in the OF was a big key and replacing those ABs with Jenkins is definitely a downgrade, but replacing the complete ineptitude that was Abraham Nunez with Feliz is just as much of an upgrade assuming Feliz can get back to just to league average. Feliz was awful last year but still light years ahead of Nunez at the plate.

You're right about Burrell. Feliz might be an upgrade to Nunez but the Phillies 3B put up .321OBP and .368 SLG% last year. Feliz should easily outslug that but he has trouble getting his OBP over .300 so I don't really see that as an upgrade.
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Re: Beltran to Rollins: We are the team to beat

Postby Amazinz » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:50 am

I'm not trying to penalize the Phillies for playing in Citizens. I feel like I'm being argued against for something I didn't say. However, when comparing the three offenses it's an important factor. If you put the Braves in Citizens last year, they match or exceed Phillies numbers.

Change of subject.. Baseball Prospectus projects the Mets winning the division by 10 and Braves finishing 2nd ahead of the Phillies. I didn't know that when I made my prediction. Honest. :-D
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