Bay, his hr/f ratio dropped to 12% last year. His 3 year median before that was 17%-22%. I expect him to get back to 30hrs.
Hafner, had a huge spike in gb/fb ratio, (48%gb/35%fb). Hard to hit hrs, when you don't hit a high % of flyballs. I expect a little bump up, maybe 30 hrs tops.
Francouer, his hr/f ratio was only 10%. Hard to know if this was the norm, or the exception, as his other 2 years were !3% and 15%. I expect about 25 hrs.
AJones, his hr/f ratio dropped to 14%, after 4 straight years of 19/19/26/22. I don't expect a huge turnaround. 30 hrs, 35 tops.
Of these 4, i think Bay has the best chance to rebound. He had bad luck with his hit rate % too, deflating his BA. I think A Jones has the worst shot of the 4 to rebound. Jones might hit the hrs. but his BA is bad.
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J.C.Fighter wrote:Jason Bay Francouer Hafner Andruw Jones Bill Hall
Is there a special kind of thing to look at during spring training/ pre-season that might indicate that player x might take a nose dive in HR's ?
Francouer is just young so hasn't developed a good baseline yet.
Hafner is coming off a hand injury which usually saps power but he was also messed up mentally.
Jones I dunno, he has a body type that doesn't age well so I'm avoiding him.
Hall had the same power as in 2005 in the first half and then tried to play through an ankle injury in the second half, I don't think his 2006 power numbers were for real but I'd pay for a repeat of 2005 from a power standpoint.
HOOTIE wrote: Of these 4, i think Bay has the best chance to rebound. He had bad luck with his hit rate % too, deflating his BA. I think A Jones has the worst shot of the 4 to rebound. Jones might hit the hrs. but his BA is bad.
But the Avg was always bad with Andruw. I feel safer drafting Jones than Bay because you know what you are most likely going to get. ~100-30- ~100 .260, and then you can draft other guys whith higher averages to compensate. Its anyones guess whats in store for Bay this year.