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PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

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PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby mkooljr1 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 9:12 am

My colleague Patrick DiCaprio takes a look at the new PECOTA cards and discusses some of the players with high breakout and collapse rates. Interesting stuff, especially the pitchers for those in deeper or only leagues! Take a look...

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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:13 am

YES!!!!111!!

PECOTA's Breakout Pitchers

Dallas Braden-Sensing a pattern? Coming in at 48%, his skill set clearly shows that he is a major league quality pitcher, and an ERA in the low fours is not out of the question. PECOTA gives him a 4.64 projection, and BaseballHQ gives him a 4.34 ERA but a 4.02 xERA. For an undoubted $1 price tag that is very juicy, and if he gets 150 IP he will be a huge bargain. Well, at least he didnt have an ERA over seven, coming in at 6.72.


I have suggested Braden a couple of times in sleeper threads as a deep sleeper and been laughed at.
Patrick DiCaprio and PECOTA are very correct in this instance. ;-D

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!

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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby mkooljr1 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:20 am

haha, i noticed that. i don't know much about Braden and never cared to check his minor league stats, but after reading about some of his minor league stats from the article, he sounds like a nice sleeper in a deeper or only leagues. i wouldn't touch him in a shallower mixed though
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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby ukjohn » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:19 am

AussieDodger wrote:YES!!!!111!!

PECOTA's Breakout Pitchers

Dallas Braden-Sensing a pattern? Coming in at 48%, his skill set clearly shows that he is a major league quality pitcher, and an ERA in the low fours is not out of the question. PECOTA gives him a 4.64 projection, and BaseballHQ gives him a 4.34 ERA but a 4.02 xERA. For an undoubted $1 price tag that is very juicy, and if he gets 150 IP he will be a huge bargain. Well, at least he didnt have an ERA over seven, coming in at 6.72.


I have suggested Braden a couple of times in sleeper threads as a deep sleeper and been laughed at.
Patrick DiCaprio and PECOTA are very correct in this instance. ;-D

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!

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pass, I don't think he will be worth owning in any leagues, JMO though
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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:23 am

PECOTA has always been high on Bonderman.
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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby The Cow » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:44 pm

Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby mkooljr1 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:08 pm

The Cow wrote:Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

The Cow


agreed, it's pretty easy to "breakout" after posting an era over 7! most of the guys mentioned are nice sleepers for deep mixed or only leagues....but could probably be ignored in shallower mixed leagues
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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:14 am

The Cow wrote:Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

The Cow



Yeah, you want to look not only at their breakout, but what the actual projection is. A breakout from an awful baseline (going from an ERA of 4.75 from 7.00) may not be nearly as valuable or important for fantasy baseball as going from 4.75 to 3.75.
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Re: PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

Postby jfg » Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:23 pm

Hey, remember that article when they were hyping Zimmerman and Kubel? Is there anybody else here who's looked at the PECOTA cards wondering what the heck happened to those bold predictions?
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