PECOTA Breakouts and Collapses

[mkooljr1]

My colleague Patrick DiCaprio takes a look at the new PECOTA cards and discusses some of the players with high breakout and collapse rates. Interesting stuff, especially the pitchers for those in deeper or only leagues! Take a look...

Offensive Collapse Candidates
Pitcher Breakout Candidates

[AussieDodger]

YES!!!!111!!

PECOTA's Breakout Pitchers

Dallas Braden-Sensing a pattern? Coming in at 48%, his skill set clearly shows that he is a major league quality pitcher, and an ERA in the low fours is not out of the question. PECOTA gives him a 4.64 projection, and BaseballHQ gives him a 4.34 ERA but a 4.02 xERA. For an undoubted $1 price tag that is very juicy, and if he gets 150 IP he will be a huge bargain. Well, at least he didnt have an ERA over seven, coming in at 6.72.

I have suggested Braden a couple of times in sleeper threads as a deep sleeper and been laughed at.
Patrick DiCaprio and PECOTA are very correct in this instance.

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!

[mkooljr1]

haha, i noticed that. i don't know much about Braden and never cared to check his minor league stats, but after reading about some of his minor league stats from the article, he sounds like a nice sleeper in a deeper or only leagues. i wouldn't touch him in a shallower mixed though

[ukjohn]

YES!!!!111!!

PECOTA's Breakout Pitchers

Dallas Braden-Sensing a pattern? Coming in at 48%, his skill set clearly shows that he is a major league quality pitcher, and an ERA in the low fours is not out of the question. PECOTA gives him a 4.64 projection, and BaseballHQ gives him a 4.34 ERA but a 4.02 xERA. For an undoubted $1 price tag that is very juicy, and if he gets 150 IP he will be a huge bargain. Well, at least he didnt have an ERA over seven, coming in at 6.72.

I have suggested Braden a couple of times in sleeper threads as a deep sleeper and been laughed at.
Patrick DiCaprio and PECOTA are very correct in this instance.

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!

pass, I don't think he will be worth owning in any leagues, JMO though

[Yoda]

PECOTA has always been high on Bonderman.

[The Cow]

Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

The Cow

[mkooljr1]

Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

The Cow

agreed, it's pretty easy to "breakout" after posting an era over 7! most of the guys mentioned are nice sleepers for deep mixed or only leagues....but could probably be ignored in shallower mixed leagues

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Before you get too excited about those SPs, it sounds like all of them are expected by Pecota to be back of the rotation fantasy starters at best. Some of those guys should not be drafted in shallow leagues. Just keep an eye on them and that includes Braden.

The Cow

Yeah, you want to look not only at their breakout, but what the actual projection is. A breakout from an awful baseline (going from an ERA of 4.75 from 7.00) may not be nearly as valuable or important for fantasy baseball as going from 4.75 to 3.75.

[jfg]

Hey, remember that article when they were hyping Zimmerman and Kubel? Is there anybody else here who's looked at the PECOTA cards wondering what the heck happened to those bold predictions?