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2007 SP vs 2008 SP

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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:50 pm

Ender wrote:The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.


Ender... Halladay, Zambrano and Oswalt still wound up being top 30 SPs according to Yahoo in 2007. So other than Sheets and Carpenter who lost time due to injury, all those guys were worth it.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:05 pm

Evaluating injury risk by # of pitches is far superior to # of IP. But you can take it one step further.

For example:
I wouldn't be concerned about the pitcher that had 42 - 100 pitch starts (including playoffs). But I would be concerned about the pitcher that had 15 - 125 pitch starts and 15 - 80 pitch starts. The 2nd pitcher only had 3075 pitches in the season, but is a far higher risk.

Luckily baseballprospectus tracks all of this for you.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... cid=204015
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:24 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.


Ender... Halladay, Zambrano and Oswalt still wound up being top 30 SPs according to Yahoo in 2007. So other than Sheets and Carpenter who lost time due to injury, all those guys were worth it.


Oswalt was drafted in the 3rd round and was the #25 best player at his position, that is not worth it. Halladay was the #27 best and was being drafted in the 4th round. Zambrano was #30 and was being drafted in the 4th/5th round. These are not worth it at all.

I took guys like Lackey, Bedard, Haren, Harang, Vazquez, Escobar in later rounds in every draft and ended up with better value than these guys.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby wiffsaber » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:08 pm

Playoff pitches must count toward the total though, no? I agree with the point of Sabathia going all the way to 3900 pitches. Even if it only happened one year, it has to ring some sort of alarm.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:51 pm

wiffsaber wrote:Playoff pitches must count toward the total though, no? I agree with the point of Sabathia going all the way to 3900 pitches. Even if it only happened one year, it has to ring some sort of alarm.


Not necessarily. It should really be how many 120+ pitch games and to a lesser extent how many 110+ pitch games. Baseball Prospectus has this all tracked in a stat called Pitcher Abuse Points in the link that I posted below (and in a previous post).

On that chart CC ranks 26th in the majors since he didn't have any games above 121 pitches. I'm amazed that AJ Burnett ranked 3rd on that list. He had 3 games with 122+ pitches and 10 more games with 111-121 pitches. Absolutely amazing that the Jays leave him in so long considering his injury history.

Ranking of Pitcher Abuse Points (2007)
1. Dice-K
2 Zambrano
3 Burnett
4 Halladay
5 Harang
6 Arroyo
the rest at the link

2 Blue jays, 2 Reds, a Cub (interesting with Wood and Prior already being injured there) and a Red Sox

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... cid=204015
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby mweir145 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:09 pm

kab21 wrote:. I'm amazed that AJ Burnett ranked 3rd on that list. He had 3 games with 122+ pitches and 10 more games with 111-121 pitches. Absolutely amazing that the Jays leave him in so long considering his injury history.

John Gibbons really doesn't care too much about pitch counts. It also doesn't help that a lot of the time Burnett gets stronger as he gets deeper into games.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:54 pm

mweir145 wrote:
kab21 wrote:. I'm amazed that AJ Burnett ranked 3rd on that list. He had 3 games with 122+ pitches and 10 more games with 111-121 pitches. Absolutely amazing that the Jays leave him in so long considering his injury history.

John Gibbons really doesn't care too much about pitch counts. It also doesn't help that a lot of the time Burnett gets stronger as he gets deeper into games.


Should it come as a surprise that he's been injured both years in Toronto?

In 2002 AJ ranked third in pitcher abuse points (9 - 122+ pitch games) and in 2003 he pitched 21 innings and had TJ surgery. Coincidence?
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat Feb 16, 2008 12:58 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.


Ender... Halladay, Zambrano and Oswalt still wound up being top 30 SPs according to Yahoo in 2007. So other than Sheets and Carpenter who lost time due to injury, all those guys were worth it.


I took Zambrano high in a league, like 5th round, because he seemed to still produce despite walking 100 guys. Although that 2 month Cy Young stretch was great, he was pretty poisonous to own and John Lackey saved my staff there big time.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:26 pm

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.


Ender... Halladay, Zambrano and Oswalt still wound up being top 30 SPs according to Yahoo in 2007. So other than Sheets and Carpenter who lost time due to injury, all those guys were worth it.


Oswalt was drafted in the 3rd round and was the #25 best player at his position, that is not worth it. Halladay was the #27 best and was being drafted in the 4th round. Zambrano was #30 and was being drafted in the 4th/5th round. These are not worth it at all.

I took guys like Lackey, Bedard, Haren, Harang, Vazquez, Escobar in later rounds in every draft and ended up with better value than these guys.


In no leagues did I draft Oswalt in the 3rd round. I didn't draft Carpetner nor Zambrano nor Halladay for various reasons.

In my 10 team money league after the draft:
Santana (kept), Sheets (kept), Kazmir, Haren, Anthony Reyes, Billingsley, Lincecum

12 team money league after the draft:
Peavy, Bonderman, Sabathia, Burnett, Rich Hill, Prior

20 team league:
Sheets, Lackey, Burnett, Greinke, Lincecum

It's really about spreading your risk and drafting guys that are undervalued. Let me ask you a question. If you don't think Santana is a good value with the top 5 picks then what makes him a good value 5 picks later?
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:08 am

Yoda wrote:
It's really about spreading your risk and drafting guys that are undervalued. Let me ask you a question. If you don't think Santana is a good value with the top 5 picks then what makes him a good value 5 picks later?


i don't think he is a good pick in the 1st round, I just think it is terrible in the first 5 picks. If you take Santana say #3 who are you getting back on the wrap around? The 20th best hitter or so is your #1 hitter or in my 14 team league it is the #24 hitter or so. The dropoff is just so huge that you are in a big hole in hitting.

I think Santana is a relatively safe pick compared to most pitchers, he hasn't had huge pitch counts and he obviously has a very stable skillset. However I still think he is as risky as say Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols because he is a pitcher. The chances of a season ending/disrupting injury are just so high with a pitcher, even one with no visible reason to be concerned. The fact that he is so absurdly good is the only reason I don't cringe at him going early 2nd round even though I agree he 'could' easily be a top 2 or 3 player value.
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