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2007 SP vs 2008 SP

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2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby shoelessjoetara » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:07 pm

This years staring pitching,is it deeper ,as deep or not as deep as last years? Are there more quality starters? I say yes . Anyone else?
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby MasterX1918 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:11 pm

I find it to be deeper, mainly due in large part to the developing young talent and the emergence of guys like Linecum, Liriano, Billingsley, Shields, Gollardo, and Buccholz. And then others like Greinke, Garza, Baker, McGowan and Marcum. I like this years field more.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:14 pm

It is about the same. We got a lot of young talent in the league last year which is great but at the same time there are not a ton of new guys who look to be joining the league for this season and a lot of older guys fell of the map for viable starters (Schilling. Livan, Clemens, Carpenter etc). I also think some good pitchers are headed the wrong way, guys like Zambrano, Zito, Oswalt, Halladay are losing value for various reasons (in many cases it is the K's falling).

There is also a new tier of pitchers who are just huge injury risks that people don't seem to be worried about. Guys like Haren, Harang, Zambrano, Hamels, Beckett, Carmona are big injury risks this year and a lot of owners are going to be disappointed they drafted some of these guys (no I can't tell you which ones will actually get hurt).

The moral to this story is draft hitting first, you can win without drafting any aces if you understand how to valuate pitching and draft for depth instead of top end quality.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby SignGuy » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:39 pm

Harang is a huge injury risk? Cant anyone simply be considered a horse anymore?
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:54 am

SignGuy wrote:Harang is a huge injury risk? Cant anyone simply be considered a horse anymore?


Once a single pitcher is a horse for 5 years straight and doesn't show a huge regression I'll let someone be a horse~

Seriously I cannot name a single pitcher who has thrown pitch totals like Harang for 4+ years who hasnt' shown a huge regression in stats since the 80's at the very least. Hitters go deeper into counts and are just way better than in the past, this is not the dead ball era where you can throw at half effeciency and have hitters swing at the 1st or 2nd pitch all the time so you can go 300+ IP a year.

Harang might be fine this year, there is a small chance he is fine next year too but by 2010 he will no longer be an ace without a doubt in my mind. Like I said I cannot pick the exact pitchers who will break down but out of those first 20 pitchers that get picked this year at least 4 or 5 will be busts and maybe more than that. Pitching is risky as heck.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:00 am

definitely, there's some risk when pitcher has been overworked. i recently read this article at greener on the other side blog about pitchers who threw 3500+ pitches. check it out: http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2 ... -past.html

3500 Blast From The Past

While the 3500 Club has generated much discussion, the research is not complete. I was asked by some readers to backtrack to 2002-2004 to extend the 3500 Club to see if the trend held true 5 years ago. So I did.

Here are some members of the 3500 Club who made the list more than once between 2002 and 2005. I exclude the likes of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez since one could argue that age played a role. So this list is limited to those who were in their "prime," had a nice 3+ year spurt of success and since have hollowed off into oblivion due to excessive usage.

Jason Schmidt He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over a 3-year span of 2002-2004. He averaged an ERA of 3.00 and struck out 200 batters in each of those years. He also happened to throw 3500+ in each of those years. Over the last three years, he's averaged an ERA close to 5.00.

Ben Sheets When he jumped onto the radar after leading Team USA to victory, he remained unknown due to the state of the Brewers switching leagues and losing 90 games a year. However, he was quite productive and finally put together a monster 264 K year. From 2002-2004 he averaged 3500+ pitches per year. He's yet to stay healthy since.

Matt Clement Remember him? The three years he played for the Cubs (umm what ever happened to Mark Prior? Kerry Wood? And what's happening now to Carlos Zambrano?) he had the three best years of his career. He averaged 195 K's and an ERA of 3.80. Since then, an ERA of 5.50 and a total of 230 innings in two years.

Kerry Wood 2001-2003 he averaged a whopping 225 K's and an ERA in the mid 3.00 range. After throwing 3500+ in each of those years he has managed an average of 44 innings in each of the last 4 seasons.

Mark Prior As if they hadn't learned from past mistakes. While Prior didn't throw more than one year of 3500+ pitches, he made such a significant jump from the minors to the majors that after one year of 3500+ he faded away. I'm starting to get worried about Ted Lilly and Rich Hill just thinking about this organization.

Russ Ortiz Ah, yes. Russ Ortiz. From 2001-2003 his ERA was in the 3.40 range. He was a big-time winner for the Giants and Braves. After throwing 3500+ in those consecutive years his respective ERA's since have been 4.10, 6.90, 8.10 and 5.50.

Freddy Garcia He had some great years in Seattle and Chicago. After throwing massive amounts of pitches for 5 consecutive years, his last two years have reeled in a season of 4.50 baseball and a half season worth of an ERA close to 6.00.

So, the 3500 Club lives on....


i also read another article somewhere else (i can't remember where) that showed the trends of pitchers who pitched multiple years of 200+ innings. while some of them were dominant or very good in that span, majority of the pitchers eventually broke down and had serious injury problems. of course he did point out the few that were the exception, but still it made me more weary of guys who has been consistently throwing a lot the past few seasons.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:01 am

Yeah going by innings is a bit iffier than by pitches. A guy like Santana racks up 200+ IP every year but his pitch counts aren't excessive. He only had 3345 last year.

Just look at last years cafe rankings by position and you'll see the problem.

The top 10 guys at 1B all had reasonable strong years.
The top 10 guys at 2B all had acceptable years other than Josh Barfield, though I'm sure the Lugo owners weren't the happiest.
The top 7 SS's all had good years and then you hit Furcal who had just an ok year, Hall who struggled with an ankle injury and Glaus who was a known injury risk.
The top 7 guys at 3B were all exactly as expected then you hit the Rolen/Glaus level.
The top 10 guys in the OF were mostly good, Bay and Manny being the only duds.

The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.

So out of the top 10 pitchers we had 5 that should earned their money. Other positions we generally saw 7-8 per position. If you look at the next 10 pitchers we have Lackey, Kazmir, Matsuzaka, Young, Felix working out pretty well and Myers, Bonderman, Harden, Schmidt, Schilling not being so great. Again 5 of 10 didn't work out.

Go back to 2006 now. The top 15 pitchers were.

Santana, Pedro, Peavy, Oswalt, Halladay, Sheets, Johnson, Carpenter, Zambrano, Harden, Prior, Felix
Willis, Smoltz, Buehrle.

Out of those 15 guys how many would you draft in the top 6 rounds this season, just 2 years later? Santana, Peavy, Felix and then maybe some would do Smoltz, Zambrano or Halladay. Between 9-12 of the top 15 pitchers have fallen out of the top end of the draft in just 2 years.

Top hitters on the list are VMart, Mauer, Pujols, Teix, Ortiz, Utley, Figgins, Soriano, ARod, Wright, Cabrera, Young, Tejada, Reyes, Vlad, Manny, Crawford. Just 2 years later almost everyone on this list is still being drafted high except the older SS's (Young, Tejada).

When you look at this years top 10 pitchers you can bet that at least 4 or 5 of them are going to be busts and probably at least 8-10 of the top 20 will be busts. This is exactly why I wait until the 8th or 9th round to draft pitching and why I still end up in the top 3 or so in the leagues in pitching stats every year.
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby J.C.Fighter » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:41 pm

Ender wrote:Yeah going by innings is a bit iffier than by pitches. A guy like Santana racks up 200+ IP every year but his pitch counts aren't excessive. He only had 3345 last year.

Just look at last years cafe rankings by position and you'll see the problem.

The top 10 guys at 1B all had reasonable strong years.
The top 10 guys at 2B all had acceptable years other than Josh Barfield, though I'm sure the Lugo owners weren't the happiest.
The top 7 SS's all had good years and then you hit Furcal who had just an ok year, Hall who struggled with an ankle injury and Glaus who was a known injury risk.
The top 7 guys at 3B were all exactly as expected then you hit the Rolen/Glaus level.
The top 10 guys in the OF were mostly good, Bay and Manny being the only duds.

The top 10 pitchers.

Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.

So out of the top 10 pitchers we had 5 that should earned their money. Other positions we generally saw 7-8 per position. If you look at the next 10 pitchers we have Lackey, Kazmir, Matsuzaka, Young, Felix working out pretty well and Myers, Bonderman, Harden, Schmidt, Schilling not being so great. Again 5 of 10 didn't work out.

Go back to 2006 now. The top 15 pitchers were.

Santana, Pedro, Peavy, Oswalt, Halladay, Sheets, Johnson, Carpenter, Zambrano, Harden, Prior, Felix
Willis, Smoltz, Buehrle.

Out of those 15 guys how many would you draft in the top 6 rounds this season, just 2 years later? Santana, Peavy, Felix and then maybe some would do Smoltz, Zambrano or Halladay. Between 9-12 of the top 15 pitchers have fallen out of the top end of the draft in just 2 years.

Top hitters on the list are VMart, Mauer, Pujols, Teix, Ortiz, Utley, Figgins, Soriano, ARod, Wright, Cabrera, Young, Tejada, Reyes, Vlad, Manny, Crawford. Just 2 years later almost everyone on this list is still being drafted high except the older SS's (Young, Tejada).

When you look at this years top 10 pitchers you can bet that at least 4 or 5 of them are going to be busts and probably at least 8-10 of the top 20 will be busts. This is exactly why I wait until the 8th or 9th round to draft pitching and why I still end up in the top 3 or so in the leagues in pitching stats every year.



Nice post , man. Thank you. I'm Going to take this into account when I do my draft. ;-D
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:01 pm

Ender wrote:There is also a new tier of pitchers who are just huge injury risks that people don't seem to be worried about. Guys like Haren, Harang, Zambrano, Hamels, Beckett, Carmona are big injury risks this year and a lot of owners are going to be disappointed they drafted some of these guys (no I can't tell you which ones will actually get hurt).

Can you explain how you are determining injury risks on pitchers? I like this kind of analysis. I know there is a school of thought out there about 3500 pitches being thrown over 3 straight years (as alluded to in a subsequent post) and about inning/pitch count increasing dramatically from one season to the next, particularly with young pitchers. With that in mind, I can understand how Haren, Harang, and Zambrano are big risks since each has thrown well over 3300-3400 pitches each of the last three years... and with Carmona he jumped way up in IP last year to 215 (plus playoffs). I'm not sure how Beckett is a big risk since his pitch count has been low (3100, 3237 the last two years) and consistent for 3 straight years, especially in contrast to Santana who has been above 3350 pitches for the last three years (but you implied was not an injury risk). Is Beckett a risk because of his playoff pitch count on top of his 3100 (which would bring it to about 3500)? If so, that would make sense, and would mean Sabathia would be a big risk too as he was up around 3900 pitches counting playoffs. Am I on the right track there?
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Re: 2007 SP vs 2008 SP

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:32 pm

You are absolutely correct, Beckett should not be in that list. His blister and arm problems from his Marlins days are still sticking in my head so I just included him in the list. Kind of like if Prior goes on and pitches 200+ IP two years in a row I'll still think of him as a big injury risk, heh.
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