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by J.C.Fighter » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:36 pm
I know I know ....he went on that gigantic slump but he still ended up with 89 runs 164 hits 26 homeruns 80 rbi's....

basically he's tulo without the avg
Getting him during round 15 or so is a steal...
what kind of numbers do you guys think he'll put up this year?
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by Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:44 pm
He is going to arbitration so I imagine there will be some bad blood involved between him and management so just keep that in mind.
People are down on him because his HRs came early in the year but to be fair he always had 20 HR power, just not the health to go with it.
The first half of his rookie year was just horrible, he mostly skipped AAA and was coming off a shoulder injury and probably should not have been in the majors.
In the second half of his rookie year he hit .308/.363/.503/.866 with 8 HR in 208 PA's.
In 2006 he was hitting .263/.309/.430/.739 with 5 HR's in 123 PA's before a week long slump and then an injury (collison at home plate).
In 2007 he exploded onto the scene with 15 HR's in April/May but then only hit 3 HRs in June/July. Then he rebounded for 8 HRs in Aug/Sept.
The secret to that line is that in June/July he was battling hip/back problems. I'd honestly pay for a repeat of last season, the bad streak offset the hot streak and the end result is about what you should expect.
I'll close with these stats.
2nd half of 2005 - 8 HR in 208 PA or 1 per 26 PA
2006 - 5 HR in 139 PA or 1 per 27.8 PA
2007 - 26 HR in 638 PA or 1 per 24.5 PA.
Last year was not some huge power spike for him. If he had hit at 1 per 27 PA he still would have hit 24 HR last year. The real fluke with Hardy was the first half of his rookie year, not the next 985 PA.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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by Yoda » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:46 pm
Health will be key. I think he overachieved a bit in 07 but should still be solid health permitting.
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by GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:35 pm
In mocks I've seen him go anywhere from about round 10 to round 20. Lots of variation in people's assessments of JJ
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by Ender » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:52 am
jlm53089 wrote:He does NOT deserve respect.
I draft him last in my draft last year and got great value.
It was the first year he did it and he did it for basically half that year....
So tell me what makes him deserve respect?
See my post above~ He had displayed 24+ HR power in the majors already before last year. His MLE's suggested a .280 AVG and plus power as well.
However I'm not sure why the original poster thinks he isn't getting any respect. He is being drafted over Peralta and Greene and under Furcal, Renteria and Cabrera which is right where I'd expect him to be.
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