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Re: kosuke fukudome

Postby The Cow » Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:48 pm

I am going to go out on a limb and say I have no clue how good this guy will be. Could be good, could be bad and could be somewhere in between. I bet I am right!

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Re: kosuke fukudome

Postby moochman » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:01 pm

The Cow wrote:I am going to go out on a limb and say I have no clue how good this guy will be. Could be good, could be bad and could be somewhere in between. I bet I am right!

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Now what fun is it if we all just admit we have no clue? :-b
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Re: kosuke fukudome

Postby stumpak » Fri Feb 15, 2008 1:59 pm

Ender wrote:
stumpak wrote:
J35J wrote:Just a late flyer type of pick, IMO. I'm not expecting anymore than...

0.275-.280 avg
12-14 hr
70ish rbi


Agree with this. Get Randy Winn off of the WW and you will get better expected performance with less downside.


Woah now, I can't agree with that advice at all. You shouldn't be trying to avoid downside at that point in the draft, you should be drafting for upside and Winn has basically none at all. If you have reached the point in your draft that you are thinking of drafting or picking up Randy Winn you should grab Fukudome first every time.


How is Fukudome's upside that much better than Winn's? Winn has gone .300/20 in a season and hit the mark in each cat seperately more than once. Very unlikely, but he could do it again. Fukudome could also hit that mark, but also very unlikely - he has barely done this in Japan with small parks and inferior pitching. On the downside, Winn is extraordinarily consistent in terms of providing a strong BA and a modest HR/SB contribution. We cannot say this about Fukudome - the downside could be a Kaz Matsui Year 1 level of crappiness. Upside is even at best, baseline expectation favors Winn (even factoring in the fewer R and RBI chances he will have in SF) and the downside really favors Winn.

I am not trying to pimp Winn, who coudl be viewed as a WW guy in a 10 team league. I am just trying to put some perspective on Fukudome. The upside is not really that great, the baseline expectation is barely worth rostering and the downside could be that he plays himself out of starting job.
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Re: kosuke fukudome

Postby mak1277 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:02 pm

I'd take Fukudome over any outfielder mentioned in this thread so far (Winn, Ibanez, Hermida, JD Drew). I'm not going nuts, but I think he's going to be a top 30 outfielder for fantasy if he stays in the line-up all year. Not a star in any category, but he's going to be solid across the board.

I don't quite understand why everyone thinks so poorly of him.

Randy Winn? Seriously?
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Re: kosuke fukudome

Postby IllinoisBandit » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:10 pm

The Big Train wrote:PECOTA loves him if you are into projections: .289/.401/.504. I might buy the OBP projection, but not the slugging. (As a late round pick, that would be an insane bargain for a league that uses OPS like mine does). PECOTA‘s top comparison is J.D. Drew. He missed a portion of last year due to elbow surgery so spring training should be interesting to watch. PECOTA also mentioned the possibility of moving Fukudome into the lead-off position due to his OBP skills while moving Soriano into an RBI slot in the Cubs lineup. I think it’s fair to say that the chances of that happening are zilch, especially if the Cubs were to get Brian Roberts. But if Soriano gets injured, maybe it’s an option. Most articles I have read indicate that he will likely hit fifth, protecting Aramis Ramirez. The Cubs were dead last in the NL last year in terms of RBI’s from the number 5 position with just 75. The league average from that position was 92. The Cubs number 5 hitters collectively had a paltry OBP of .321. I can’t imagine Fukudome doing worse than 75 RBI’s if he’s in that spot most of the year and maintains a solid OBP like he did in Japan.


My word. Anyone else think that projection is absolutely ridiculous? I'd put a lot more money on his OPS being south of .800 than over .900 that's for sure.
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