Ender wrote: stumpak wrote:
J35J wrote:Just a late flyer type of pick, IMO. I'm not expecting anymore than...
Agree with this. Get Randy Winn off of the WW and you will get better expected performance with less downside.
Woah now, I can't agree with that advice at all. You shouldn't be trying to avoid downside at that point in the draft, you should be drafting for upside and Winn has basically none at all. If you have reached the point in your draft that you are thinking of drafting or picking up Randy Winn you should grab Fukudome first every time.
How is Fukudome's upside that much better than Winn's? Winn has gone .300/20 in a season and hit the mark in each cat seperately more than once. Very unlikely, but he could do it again. Fukudome could also hit that mark, but also very unlikely - he has barely done this in Japan with small parks and inferior pitching. On the downside, Winn is extraordinarily consistent in terms of providing a strong BA and a modest HR/SB contribution. We cannot say this about Fukudome - the downside could be a Kaz Matsui Year 1 level of crappiness. Upside is even at best, baseline expectation favors Winn (even factoring in the fewer R and RBI chances he will have in SF) and the downside really favors Winn.
I am not trying to pimp Winn, who coudl be viewed as a WW guy in a 10 team league. I am just trying to put some perspective on Fukudome. The upside is not really that great, the baseline expectation is barely worth rostering and the downside could be that he plays himself out of starting job.