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Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

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Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby mkooljr1 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:44 am

I wrote an article about popular sleeper Adam Wainwright, who I believe is being overrated. Check it out through the below link and then thank me after the season for the warning!

Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:41 pm

That article pretty much quantifies my reasons for not thinking Wainwright is anything special.
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby J.C.Fighter » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:43 pm

Man, Wainwright was a bust for me last year. I honestly don't know what people see in him. Even when he was pitching better he still was walking like 5 batters a game. NO THANKS
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:57 pm

J.C.Fighter wrote:Man, Wainwright was a bust for me last year. I honestly don't know what people see in him. Even when he was pitching better he still was walking like 5 batters a game. NO THANKS

He didn't walk 5 batters in any start last year. He had 1 BB 8 times, 2 BB 9 times, 3 BB 8 times, and 4 BB 5 times. He pitched three months (June, August, September) of spectacular ball, and 9 of his last 11 starts were QS, one of the 2 he didn't have he went 5.2 IP, otherwise it would've been one as well. 1.64, 3.20, and 2.89 were his K/BB ratios the last three months of the season (reverse order). After April his ERA dropped in every single month, consecutively. He's 26 years old with 279 major league innings logged.

I can see why people are high on him this year.
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby J.C.Fighter » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:12 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:Man, Wainwright was a bust for me last year. I honestly don't know what people see in him. Even when he was pitching better he still was walking like 5 batters a game. NO THANKS

He didn't walk 5 batters in any start last year. He had 1 BB 8 times, 2 BB 9 times, 3 BB 8 times, and 4 BB 5 times. He pitched three months (June, August, September) of spectacular ball, and 9 of his last 11 starts were QS, one of the 2 he didn't have he went 5.2 IP, otherwise it would've been one as well. 1.64, 3.20, and 2.89 were his K/BB ratios the last three months of the season (reverse order). After April his ERA dropped in every single month, consecutively. He's 26 years old with 279 major league innings logged.

I can see why people are high on him this year.



I'm looking at his game log and this guy allows like 8-9 hits a game ! on top of that he'll have games where he walks like 4 batters. His whip will kill you and on some days the era WILL kill you. Sorry but he's too much of a gamble for me.
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby Field » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:13 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:I wrote an article about popular sleeper Adam Wainwright, who I believe is being overrated.


I don't think being a sleeper and being overrated always go hand in hand. For some players this is true, especially when their ADP starts to rise significantly. Right now, this really isn't the case for Wainwright. He seems to be pretty apporpriately valued around 150-175. I don't really see a problem with drafting him in that area, especially when the SP selection begins to tail off.
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby moose32 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:14 pm

i'm high on wainwright this year, expecting around a 3.50 era. maybe the stats don't bare it out, but i remember watching him pitch at philly and he flat out dominated. his curve is nasty, and he still throws a low 90s fastball. i put him right in line with guys like billingsley and snell
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:17 pm

Nice analysis. However, if Wainwright continues to improve his K and BB rates as he had in 07 then I can see him having a good season. Given his MLEs I think he can take another step up.
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby josebach » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:18 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
J.C.Fighter wrote:Man, Wainwright was a bust for me last year. I honestly don't know what people see in him. Even when he was pitching better he still was walking like 5 batters a game. NO THANKS

He didn't walk 5 batters in any start last year. He had 1 BB 8 times, 2 BB 9 times, 3 BB 8 times, and 4 BB 5 times. He pitched three months (June, August, September) of spectacular ball, and 9 of his last 11 starts were QS, one of the 2 he didn't have he went 5.2 IP, otherwise it would've been one as well. 1.64, 3.20, and 2.89 were his K/BB ratios the last three months of the season (reverse order). After April his ERA dropped in every single month, consecutively. He's 26 years old with 279 major league innings logged.

I can see why people are high on him this year.


Exactly. He only had two bad months last year. I picked him up in July as an injury fill-in and ended up keeping him the rest of the season because I could never justify dropping him. I'd be happy to have him as my #5 or #6 starter this year.

His WHIP will kill you? :-?
June - 1.23
July - 1.34
August - 1.14
September - 1.27
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Re: Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright

Postby mkooljr1 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:52 pm

Field wrote:
mkooljr1 wrote:I wrote an article about popular sleeper Adam Wainwright, who I believe is being overrated.


I don't think being a sleeper and being overrated always go hand in hand. For some players this is true, especially when their ADP starts to rise significantly. Right now, this really isn't the case for Wainwright. He seems to be pretty apporpriately valued around 150-175. I don't really see a problem with drafting him in that area, especially when the SP selection begins to tail off.


agreed, i probably used the wrong word in calling him overrated. however, if his ADP showed he was being drafted earlier, then i don't think he'd be a sleeper anymore since he'd then NEED to improve on last year's stats to justify his draft slot. that no longer is a sleeper in my opinion. so basically, if you draft him in the range you mentioned, but think you have a sleeper who could post a mid 3's ERA, then i think you could be disappointed. the post right below yours sums it up perfectly- he's expecting a 3.50 era, but using no support from the stats, and basing it on his trusty eye
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