For a default traditional Roto league the rule of thumb I always hear is 160 or 165 SB and 290 or 300 HR. Absolutely no idea how accurate those numbers are though since I've never seen the research behind them.
Is it just me or are there not very many rosterable steals guys late in drafts this year?
Willy Taveras Kaz Matsui Nate McLouth Ryan Theriot Felipe Lopez
This list of guys could get lots of steals, but I would not confidently put them in my lineup.
Jerry Owens Reggie Willits (did he lose his job with Hunter joining LAA?) Coco Crisp Michael Bourn (Some would argue he belongs on the other list, but I'm not sure.) Dave Roberts (Getting older) Corey Patterson
It seemed like there were always guys you could grab late that would put you over the edge in the steals category, but I'm not seeing it this year.
Honestly, I hate getting stuck in a position where I feel I need to draft just for steals. I really try to grab guys along the way who have the potential to go 30-30 or 20-20 or who at least will get me SB's while also contributing in other categories. In a mock I did today, I grabbed Wright in the 1st, Phillips in the 3rd (yup, he actually dropped to me at #27), Kinsler in the 7th and Victorino in the 14th. If they each produce as expected, I can bank on close to 120 SB's right there. I play in a H2H 11x11 league, and I tend to punt SB's if I can't get guys early on who contribute in all cats. I'd rather punt SB's than waste a draft pick on someone who hurts me in other cats.
me too, I take pains to get a handful of guys that can provide the blend. Eventually you might have to reach or force the issue if you have a pick near the turn, but I think the benefit to not having it locked into one or two guys, or having to draft specifically for it, outweigh the slight hit you might take in the value drafted.
I drafted Figgins at the end of the 3rd round two years ago and I'm still angry about it. My roommate razzes me EVERY DRAFT because all I talked about was Carlos Beltran, Carlos Beltran, all winter and then I had my shot at him but since I had Ortiz and Cabrera I said I need big time steals. I'm still angry about it.
Draft the hitters that run, not the runners that can't hit.
Braun, Sizemore, Wright, Utley, Hanley etc. Lots of them out there and you target them from the outset, you'll never have to waste a slot on a guy that won't give you any pop. In roto, you never know when those guys are going to steal those bases so it's annoying. In H2H, it's good to have an SB guy on your bench for matchups, but I'd never have a Tavares, Morgan, Bourn guy in my weekly lineup.