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Draft Strategy

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Draft Strategy

Postby quicksilver8 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:00 pm

My NL only auction league may go from 11 teams to 12 teams. I understand that means supply of players remains constant while demand (a 12th team) goes up...so what net affect will this have on auction values? All players increase? Only top players values increase? any suggested strategies?
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby roninmedia » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:16 pm

Assuming:

11 Teams with a budget of $260 and a roster size of 23 Players per team.
253 Total Players with a Total Budget of 2860.

12 Teams with a budget of $260 and a roster size of 23 Players per team.
276 Total Players with a Total Budget of $3120.


The value of a point production above that of a replacement level player is the same in both cases. (253/2860 = 276/3120). However because we are adding an additional starter for each position, the VORP is greater. Therefore, top players will see their values increases as their VORP also increase.
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:22 pm

The value of most players will increase, because there will be more $$ as a whole out there.
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby Matthias » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:01 pm

quicksilver8 wrote:My NL only auction league may go from 11 teams to 12 teams. I understand that means supply of players remains constant while demand (a 12th team) goes up...

This isn't quite true. The player universe has also expanded as now the replacement player at each position has slid down one value. My intuition is with roninmedia that this will push up the values of the players at the top as they become even more differentiated from league replacement.
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby JDD » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:19 pm

Let's not forget the value of the guys who don't get hurt... the gamers... the 150-162 games per year guys. Their value just went up simply because the ability of the player you have to use to replace them just went down.

Your league's waiver wire will really be weak now. The winner of your league will be the one who does not have to use it very much.

I doubt the salaries will go up much. The total cash on the table went up by less than ten percent. So your nine dollar player just went up to ten. Big deal. Your league will still be populated by a ton of one dollar players. So focus less on the cash, and more on which players will likely finish near the top of the league in games played.

Don't overspend on pitching. New (pitching) talent is always given a chance, and the wire should be a little richer than you think.
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby TB28 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:24 pm

It's just simple simply and demand. Unless a roster spot is taken away with an extra team the quantity demanded will be higher.
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Re: Draft Strategy

Postby AKhomebrewer » Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:02 am

Had this scenario occur in my early days when our 8-team NL-only expanded to 10.
Top players bumped up a couple bucks ... middle group kept roughly the same value but this whole grouping shrunk slightly ... bunch more $1 guys at the end.
It may not work precisely this way for you, but you shouldn't see any radical change, either. Just plan on a few extra bucks for your top tier.
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