Hey guys... I've been pretty impressed so far with the amount of free material that this forum has brought to my attention in preperation for this years' upcoming drafts. The projections, ADP, positional rankings, etc, etc have all be fantastic.
But, I still feel like I'm missing one key piece to the puzzle before I'm finally prepared for my draft. It's not only important to know which players are going to rack up the most steals, homeruns, or saves. It's also extremely important to have an idea in your head as to how many you're going to need in order to win those categories.
What I'm looking for is a database of previous leagues and their final statistical results. How many RBIs took 1st place, 2nd place, etc. How many strikeouts did the first place team have, etc.
Obviously this is going to be dependant on the specific rosters of the leagues (whether they include MI/CI/C2, 4xSP or 5xSP, how many bench spots, etc)... but anything would be a good start to at least get me some numbers going. In particular I'd be looking for 10 or 12 team leagues which have C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/OF/OF/UT/SP/SP/RP/RP/P/P/P, and about 6-7 bench spots (total roster = +/- 21-23)... a typical Yahoo! setup (I think).
Mainly I'm interested in being able to tally up my projected stats during the draft, see where I'm at in relation to where I need to be, and adjust my future picks accordingly. It would be very handy to know whether I can skip over some higher ranked players (who are well-rounded statistically) and focus on guys who are specialists (in SB, HR, AVG, or whatever). I feel like this would also help me know when I can start looking more closely at picking up prospects as well.... whether I can spend my 18th round pick on an Justin Upton, or if I need to play it more safely and go after a more established veteran.
I think I've seen this in years past. In fact, I believe it was in either a Yahoo or TSN article I read. I find it helpful, especially when you get some hard pitcher/hitter decisions in the middle rounds or in leagues where you keep 2-10 core players and then re-draft the remaining ones. You have your core projected stats and need to know what you should draft around those stats to build a winning team.
Again, I also draft for value early-mid rounds but when the value of two very different players is similar it helps you understand which one might help your particular team the most.
I'll see if I can't find last year's article I read.
Just looking through that list, it's obvious that there's just too many variables in here to back-engineer these goals based on previous data, without having it sorted out into exactly the types of leagues you're looking for. Counting categories are far too variable based on the number of positions for hitters. Averaging categories are far too variable based on the number of teams in the league.
Is there a way we can front-engineer these types of goals?
Say we want to figure out how many Runs are going to be enough to win a 10 team league with the positions I listed above (9 Hitters).
Could we, for instance, take the top 10 projected Run totals for each position, add them all together, divide by the number of teams, and then mulitply by a factor (or standard deviation) to figure out what the top and bottom teams are going to put up? Taking a quick look through the leagues posted in your link, it looks like a factor of 1.15-1.20 would be necessary to get from the "average" runs scored to the "winning" runs scored.
Just did a quick total of the projections I have in one database for the top 10 C/1b/2b/3b/SS/OF/OF/OF and the next 10 guys (Utility), and came up with a total of 8542, for an average Runs total of 854 for all teams. Multiplying that by 1.15-1.20, gives me a "winning" range of 982 to 1024.
I could assume a 12 team league would drop a little bit, maybe to 820 average, or 943-984 for winning.
In my mock drafts so far I'm coming up with Run totals somewhere around 838 and 887, so obviously I've got some work to do in order to win these categories.
This could be a lot harder than it looks... I'll have to do some more exploration into this.
Last edited by MTUCache on Wed Feb 13, 2008 12:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
there are the numbers from standard yahoo leagues last season. i'll have the 08 version of that column up within a few weeks
Oh... and one note... I don't know if you took this into account last time, but I figured I'd bring it to your attention for this year if you're planning on doing it again.
Rather than take the average totals from the winners to calculate how much you need to win the league, it might be more realistic if you take the average totals from the 2nd place finishers and go one point better in each stat.
For instance, last year you had 120 SB down as the winning threshold, but I sincerely doubt that was what was really needed to win in most leagues. In most leagues the winner of some categories (like SB) are head-and-shoulders above everybody else. It might be more accurate to say that the average second-place finisher had 105 SB, so in order to win you need to get to 106, not all the way to 120.
I'm sure I don't need to tell you, but FBB is usually ruled by dominance in many categories, and by the slimmest of margins in others. It does me no good to try and keep up with those who are completely dominating their league, when all I have to do is beat the second place guy.
Anyway... a small note about an otherwise great article. Thank you very much for linking me to this... exactly what I was looking for.