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Where should Santana be drafted?

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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby chipper » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:03 am

Rhydderch wrote:spot starting pitchers, and picking up pitchers as the season progresses. It is typical for me that I fall 150 innings off the pace, but as I add guys through the ww and trades I make up those innings.

Totally agree with that, especially the last part.
I like to wait until pitchers can get their arms in better shape, last longer into games (to be more assured of a win), and for teams to get their bullpens straightened out (to be more assured of wins when your SP leaves with a lead). As long as you get a good base of SP's, you can fill in with the occasional spot start, and guys who will have break through years.....like happens every year.

Plus it's kinda fun letting people think they are way ahead of you, and then stomping them in the 2nd half of the season. :-D
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby jlm53089 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:18 am

I have the 4th pick in my 10 team money league.
And I am deciding between, Wright, Hanley, and Johan.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:31 am

jlm53089 wrote:I have the 4th pick in my 10 team money league.
And I am deciding between, Wright, Hanley, and Johan.


Anyone but Santana, in fact I don't care who gets pitcked 1-3 there is no way you could be correct to take Santana with pick #4.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Matthias » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:52 am

Ender wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:I have the 4th pick in my 10 team money league.
And I am deciding between, Wright, Hanley, and Johan.

Anyone but Santana, in fact I don't care who gets pitcked 1-3 there is no way you could be correct to take Santana with pick #4.

Sure you could.

Santana could win 17-20 wins, strike out 180+, and sport an ERA under 2.5. And he has a very good shot at those numbers: those just aren't a 10% probability kind of thing.... probably a 70% chance, I'd say. That makes a top 3 pick.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:53 am

Matthias wrote:
Ender wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:I have the 4th pick in my 10 team money league.
And I am deciding between, Wright, Hanley, and Johan.

Anyone but Santana, in fact I don't care who gets pitcked 1-3 there is no way you could be correct to take Santana with pick #4.

Sure you could.

Santana could win 17-20 wins, strike out 180+, and sport an ERA under 2.5. And he has a very good shot at those numbers: those just aren't a 10% probability kind of thing.... probably a 70% chance, I'd say. That makes a top 3 pick.


70% chance at under 2.50 ERA? Are you kidding? What do you base that on just out of curiosity?
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Matthias » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:16 am

Yoda wrote:70% chance at under 2.50 ERA? Are you kidding? What do you base that on just out of curiosity?

Santana's ERA over the last 3 years is 3.00. Pitchers switching from the AL to the NL historically experience a 0.70 or so drop in their ERA. His ERA last year was higher than normal at 3.33 but since 2001, it's been only his second year above the 3.00 mark (and the other year was 3.07), so I assume that's a bit on the high side of to be expected. And if you say he rebounds even slightly to an ERA of 3.2 and then take off a 0.7 adjustment off of that it puts his ERA at 2.5. Given I'd believe him to actually have around an ERA around 3.00 as a normal year, an ERA in the NL under 2.50 seems like a fairly safe bet.

FWIW, I know that BP is much more bearish: I think their projections have him around an ERA of 3.00 - 3.20... something like that.

Addendum: I forget where I read the 0.70 number, but here's an article in the NY Times from last year that found a 0.85 drop.
From 2000 through 2005, 57 starting pitchers (those with at least 20 starts that season) switched leagues the next year — 29 to the N.L. from the A.L. and 28 in the other direction. Their statistics moved with them: Combined E.R.A.s for the new National Leaguers decreased to 3.94 from 4.79, or 0.85 of a run, while their counterparts’ increased to 4.64 from 3.94, a move of 0.70.
Last edited by Matthias on Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Matthias » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:21 am

It's only 1 data point, but you can look at Clemens' experience switching leagues... his ERA bounced around 3.5 - 4.5 when he was with the Yankees the first time around and was 3.921 in 2003, his last year with them in that stint. The next year in Houston his ERA fell to 2.985, was under 2.00 in the following year, 2.308 in 2006, and then 4.182 once he flipped back to the AL last season.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby bleach168 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:22 am

Pecota numbers for 2008 Santana, 16 Wins, 225 IP, 2.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 239 K's
Typical #5 fantasy starter in 2006, 12.6 Wins, 178.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 141.3 K's

If you go with the Santana and four scrubs, your final tally would be: 66.4 Wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 804 K's

If you drafted starting pitchers in rounds 7, 8, 10, 11, and 12 (two #2 starters and three #3 starters), you would get: 67.1 Wins, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 770 K's

To me, Santana is worth nearly five picks in the 7-12 range. I would not hesitate to take Santana early in the 1st round.

Footnote: My calculations are based off Matt Buser's numbers found here, http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/new ... lle_031607
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:11 am

Matthias wrote:It's only 1 data point, but you can look at Clemens' experience switching leagues... his ERA bounced around 3.5 - 4.5 when he was with the Yankees the first time around and was 3.921 in 2003, his last year with them in that stint. The next year in Houston his ERA fell to 2.985, was under 2.00 in the following year, 2.308 in 2006, and then 4.182 once he flipped back to the AL last season.


Everyone knows that NL pitchers post better numbers due to the lack of DH. However, banking on anyone to post a sub 2.50 ERA is simply foolish.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Matthias » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:17 am

Yoda wrote:
Matthias wrote:It's only 1 data point, but you can look at Clemens' experience switching leagues... his ERA bounced around 3.5 - 4.5 when he was with the Yankees the first time around and was 3.921 in 2003, his last year with them in that stint. The next year in Houston his ERA fell to 2.985, was under 2.00 in the following year, 2.308 in 2006, and then 4.182 once he flipped back to the AL last season.

Everyone knows that NL pitchers post better numbers due to the lack of DH. However, banking on anyone to post a sub 2.50 ERA is simply foolish.

Well, we'll see.

Edited your post, huh.
Last edited by Matthias on Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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