Matthias wrote:That ignores a couple of things. (1) In innings with IP limits, he'll give you 1/6 or so of your innings: hitters will, at best, give you 1/10. So even if you weight their value for being in 25% more categories, he still has a greater influence: 1/6 vs. 1/8 (1/10 * 5/4). (2) There are very few hitters who will really help all 5 categories. Most are 4, at best. (3) The amount that he surpasses other pitchers, if he does have the type of year the OP is expecting, will far outsurpass the contribution of even the best hitter. It's not only how many categories you're helping, but also how much.
Personally, I think he should go in the top 3 in mixed leagues.
Good points. I'm mostly talking about him going first. Arod is a 5-cat player and is heads above the rest in terms of RBI, R, HR and is solid in AVG and SB.
Edit: I just looked at OP's predictions. Yeah, that's definitely top 1-2 material IF he achieves that.
Depends on the type of your league but he is definitely top 10 material. I'd argue he has been probably top 3 the last few seasons as well.
I am in a 20 team league again this year and seriously considering drafting Santana with my #5 overall pick if he is there. The IP min is 600 and if I can get Santana and a couple of reliable arms, I can probably win all the pitching categories.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
The problem I have with drafting him is that you fall a hitter behind your competition and still have to round out your staff, Johan alone isn't good enough. During the middle rounds when others are grabbing solid pitchers you will still be taking care of your needs in the outfield or wherever your offense has holes at. If you are very good at making good waiver claims or finding late round values then go for it but this can be difficult to do in competetive leagues. All in all I have drafted Johan in the first round and done well but I also won my other competitive league going offense heavy early on so I won't be taking Johan unless he is there at 15-20 where I feel there is more value
I think he is a horrible pick until at least Howard is off the table, after that he is reasonable but like I said I wouldn't take a pitcher until mid 2nd round.
People who drafted Santana last year got the 2nd or maybe even 3rd best pitcher in fantasy and they still took on all the risk that pitchers bring on over hitters. For all the talk about him being a steady ace etc it is still pretty darn rare to find a pitcher with 5 healthy seasons in a row unless they are a soft tosser. I just don't like the risk one bit. Pitchers who have a history of going 200+ innings year in and year out are still riskier than the stud hitters.
I got him at 2.02 in my 12-teamer. I think with people believing that drafting a pitcher in the 1st round is a bad plan coupled with Johan's "bad" season in '07, he's dropping below his value. I think mid-first is perfect valuewise, but you can get him early 2nd in most drafts.
I think Johan is still a bookend 1st/2nd pick. Johan's overall numbers should definitely improve from '07, figuring in a move to the NL and to Shea, especially his ERA and WHIP and now he has the run support to make him a legitimate 20 win threat, but I think it's fairly optimistic to think he improves to the tune of an ERA in 2.20-2.30, a sub 1.00 WHIP, and 260 K, with the move being a big factor to such success.
I'd say it's Johan's durability and consistency that warrants a 1st round pick for him, but when you think about the greater depth in pitching coupled with the relative scarcity of a high-end bat, I'd still prefer to go top-heavy in hitting.
I agree with most people here, but I will unlikely take him in the 1st round. I am a big believer in the MR theory, spot starting pitchers, and picking up pitchers as the season progresses. It is typical for me that I fall 150 innings off the pace, but as I add guys through the ww and trades I make up those innings.
I don't agree he is a riskier pick than a lot of hitters. Guys like HanRam, Wright + Reyes have so much of their value tied to base stealing, that a simple tweak may make a huge dent in there value (ala Soriano last year).
At the end of the day, no one dominates four cateogories like Santana.