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Where should Santana be drafted?

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Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Nails86 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:35 am

I know some people will never take a pitcher in the first round, but Johan was consistently taken in the top 5 in roto leagues 2 years ago. With his trade to the best team in the National League, what is his value? Should he be taken in the first round? If so, where? You have to figure that with the switch to the NL and to a great team he will put up 20 W 260 K's 2.2 ERA and a WHIP below 1. What do you buddies think?
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby mbuser » Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:50 am

if you believe that he will put up those numbers, then you should take him first overall -- that line would make him the #1 fantasy player, likely by a wide margin. like you said, you're going to have people tell you that you never draft an SP early, period (carp's injury last season helped that camp), but johan is one guy i have no problems taking right off the bat ... he's just so money. and if he does break down this year, it'd be the first time in 5 seasons that he didnt put up numbers worthy of a 1st round pick, and that includes last season
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby jermhorse » Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:58 am

I hear what your saying. The is the best out there right now. IMO but wouldn't take a pitcher till 5th 6th round. there is a lotg of good pitching right to chooose from now and no pitcher can even touch 4 cata gories. I believe in the therory that Pop wins you money. and i will almost def pass on santana because i'm not willing to pay 35 for any pitcher right now. and i know someone will take before me or overpay. But i see him going second round. someone is going to get a boner for him right?
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:30 am

i'd consider drafting him as early as 6th once arod, pujols, reyes, hanley, wright are off the board
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:49 am

If Santana falls to me at #12 (doubtful) I'll take him - I kind of hope he gets picked before that so I don't have to take him. I generally avoid pitchers that early because they are inherently riskier than hitters, but Santana's upside is too high pitching in the NL in a pitcher's park for a very good hitting team with a good bullpen. I usually take a SP in Round 3-4 to anchor my staff then load up on SP in the middle rounds.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:55 am

Santana would have to drop to the middle of the 2nd round for me to consider him. Pitching just isn't worth it in the early rounds, too much injury risk, too much variance year to year in ERA/WHIP/W.
Last edited by Ender on Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Rotundor » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:58 am

Think about it this way:

The most dominant pitcher is at best a 4-cat contributor
Hitters are 5-cat.

His value takes a hit right there. If you take him above A-rod then I feel that you've done yourself a disservice. If you take him second, I can see a case for that.

I'd take him early 2nd, depending who I got in the first round.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Matthias » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:18 am

Rotundor wrote:Think about it this way:

The most dominant pitcher is at best a 4-cat contributor
Hitters are 5-cat.

His value takes a hit right there.

That ignores a couple of things.
(1) In innings with IP limits, he'll give you 1/6 or so of your innings: hitters will, at best, give you 1/10. So even if you weight their value for being in 25% more categories, he still has a greater influence: 1/6 vs. 1/8 (1/10 * 5/4).
(2) There are very few hitters who will really help all 5 categories. Most are 4, at best.
(3) The amount that he surpasses other pitchers, if he does have the type of year the OP is expecting, will far outsurpass the contribution of even the best hitter. It's not only how many categories you're helping, but also how much.

Personally, I think he should go in the top 3 in mixed leagues.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Grounded Polo » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:25 am

I have the 10th pick in a slow draft and I'm looking at Johan as one of my possibilities and it's not just being a homer. :-D
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Tarquin » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:25 am

For me:

After: A-rod, wright, reyes, ramirez, pujols, cabrera, utley, ortiz, holliday
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