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Is Soriano going to have a better year than A-Rod?

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Postby Dude86 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:41 pm

Heres how it'll work out, Soriano and A-rod will be about equal in Homers, Runs, and Rbis this season. Soriano will have much more stolen bases than A-rod and A-rod will have a much better average than Soriano. Then it comes down to positions. Obviously A-rod will be eligible at third and we could see Soriano become eligible at SS and possibly even OF. A-rod will probably have the better season but if you're a Red Soz fan and refuse to draft A-rod then Soriano is the next best thing.
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Postby Fumbler » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:54 pm

I think Soriano will have a pretty good year (as will A-Rod).

What does concern me though is: If i draft Soriano for my keeper league, what are the chances he will still get enough starts at 2nd Base to be eligible there in the future?

Because if he's just going to be eligible in the outfield after this year, then i mine as well just draft Beltran or Vlad since they'd be more of a sure thing. The main reason Soriano is considered such a high pick is his position at 2nd Base.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:59 am

RynMan wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Parks effect everybody. Arod will still produce, but i think his 50 hr seasons are over. His team dependent stats (runs/rbis) likely go up.


i guess this is where we disagree. A-Rod still hasnt hit his peak yet....and he has already hit 50 HR's. He can hit 50 HR's in yankee stadium because he is that good a hitter.


How do we know that he has yet to peak? His best 3 OPS+ years were at age 20/24/25, not the typical 26-28 years. He could hit 50 sure. But the odds just decreased.

His 3 year splits at TBIA.

home avg333
road avg 278

home ops 1.082
road ops .939

That's quite a difference. NY is neutral.

http://sports.espngo.com/mlb/players/sp ... pe=batting
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Soriano's patience

Postby riplycolt » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:21 am

After watching Soriano in the post-season, teams are going to consistantly pitch him breaking balls away. Until he learns to lay off those pitches and show a little more patience A-rod will be more valuable no matter what park they play in.
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Postby RynMan » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:31 am

HOOTIE wrote:
RynMan wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Parks effect everybody. Arod will still produce, but i think his 50 hr seasons are over. His team dependent stats (runs/rbis) likely go up.


i guess this is where we disagree. A-Rod still hasnt hit his peak yet....and he has already hit 50 HR's. He can hit 50 HR's in yankee stadium because he is that good a hitter.


How do we know that he has yet to peak? His best 3 OPS+ years were at age 20/24/25, not the typical 26-28 years. He could hit 50 sure. But the odds just decreased.

His 3 year splits at TBIA.

home avg333
road avg 278

home ops 1.082
road ops .939

That's quite a difference. NY is neutral.

http://sports.espngo.com/mlb/players/sp ... pe=batting


Look at the 3 other parks in the AL West! Oakland and Seattle are hitters graveyards, and Anaheim aint anything special either!

He is moving to a league with better hitters parks in general. If you play baseball you will know that when you play at home - where u feel comfortable, that is where u hit better. Its only natural. I just dont buy that a-rod has hit his best. Thats a big call.
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Division games

Postby riplycolt » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:43 am

Soriano is going to a division that has really good pitching. The A's, Mariners and Angels all have superior pitching staffs. Playing all those inter division games won't help.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:44 am

In general, players do better at home true. Unless the park is extreme. TBIA was extreme. I'm not saying Arod has peaked. But it's possible he has.

Here is a 3 year hr index for RHB. 100 is neutral.

AL WEST

TBIA 120
EDISON 111
NAC 110
SAFECO 74

AL EAST

YANKEE STADIUM 106
CAMDEN 100
FENWAY 88
SKYDOME 105
TROPICANA 87

Is the AL east really better for RHB then the AL west? There is one benefit. Arod gets to face Texas pitchers, and doesn't have to face NYY pitchers. I still feel 81 games away from TBIA will be felt somewhat.
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Postby RynMan » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:52 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Is the AL east really better for RHB then the AL west? There is one benefit. Arod gets to face Texas pitchers, and doesn't have to face NYY pitchers. I still feel 81 games away from TBIA will be felt somewhat.


he had to face the rest of the western division's rotations last year - probably the best division in the AL as far as rotations go. But now he faces Red Sox and Blue jays staffs, both arent too shabby.
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