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I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:21 pm

Close to Carlos Silva? Or Better?

Sadly, last I saw, Carlos Silva is a $12 million dollar a year pitcher. Blanton is better and making way less.

Do you not expect Blanton to be a better pitcher than he is now moving to the weaker/fastball /National league?

Blanton and Silva - I see your point, but lets put it this way:

Blanton has 2x the k's silva does but the same if not, less walks.
Silva's career era (while a starting pitcher for 4 years) is 4.50 which is .50 more than Blanton.

Someone mentioned, to my point, that Halladay was only .80 ERA better than blanton and said "that makes the pitcher". Well, if that's the case, my argument is valid even more so that Blanton is like Halladay but cheaper, if the argument is made that Blanton is "close to" Silva.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:32 pm

ams wrote:Close to Carlos Silva? Or Better?

Sadly, last I saw, Carlos Silva is a $12 million dollar a year pitcher. Blanton is better and making way less.

Do you not expect Blanton to be a better pitcher than he is now moving to the weaker/fastball /National league?

Blanton and Silva - I see your point, but lets put it this way:

Blanton has 2x the k's silva does but the same if not, less walks.
Silva's career era (while a starting pitcher for 4 years) is 4.50 which is .50 more than Blanton.

Someone mentioned, to my point, that Halladay was only .80 ERA better than blanton and said "that makes the pitcher". Well, if that's the case, my argument is valid even more so that Blanton is like Halladay but cheaper, if the argument is made that Blanton is "close to" Silva.


I think everyone would consider Silva overpaid (except Bavasi). Don't rationalize an argument versus what many consider a mistake.

Use ERA+ which takes out the park effect. 102 vs 105. For fun, Halladay has a ERA+ of 128.

Blanton is not a fringe #1 or a #2 regardless of what league he's in.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:42 pm

He's most definitely a #2 on the Reds, the A's and many other teams.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:45 pm

ams wrote:He's most definitely a #2 on the Reds, the A's and many other teams.


Did you use any pitching metrics when saying that Blanton was most definitely better than Arroyo? I'm not the biggest Arroyo fan, but he has been as good as or slightly better than Blanton in almost every category for the last 4 years (3 yrs for Blanton).

If Blanton is so great and cheap it makes sense that Billy keeps him all for himself.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:11 pm

Well, yeah, I would prefer the A's to keep Blanton, but since it looks like he's moving, I am speculating.

And re: metrics, yes, I did, on another board already. As you stated, you are correct, the stats are extremely close.

As Arroyo's stats are helped by one freakishly good year (2006) where his ERA (3.29) dropped by a almost a full run compared to the average of his other 3 years (4.20), Blanton was hurt by his one freakishly bad year (2006, 4.80 ERA) a full run higher than the average of his other 2 seasons, showing similar ERA's averaging to 3.74 ERA)

4 years of Arroyo starting, Averages:
4.024 ERA, 1.28WHIP, 145k, 57BB

3 years of Blanton starting, Averages:
4.10 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 121K, 55BB

More importantly, Blantons' peripherals have gotten better each year, while Arroyo's BB's have increased and his K rates have alternated.

I don't think Blanton is that much of a better pitcher than Arroyo, but based on the peripherals and Blantons abberation year being a negative, while Arroyo's being a positive (coinciding with his first year in the NL), I think Blanton is a better bet to continue improving and showing better numbers.

Also noting that Blanton JUST turned 27 and Arroyo will be turning 30 in about a week. Thus, Blanton is JUST now entering his prime and I feel good seeing that his 2 strong years out of 3, were very similar ERA and WHIP wise, while he pitched 40 more innings in the more recent one.

So yes, I see Blanton as their #2 in cincy.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:48 pm

Regardless if you want to call Blanton a #2 or a #3, I wouldn't trade 2 - top 50 prospects for a guy that has a career ERA+ of 105 (with his best season occurring 2 years ago). He's just so average or slightly above average if you insist.

And yes he's in the category of guys like Silva and Arroyo instead of even being remotely close to Halladay.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:03 pm

Actually Blanton's 2005 was almost completely luck driven. His best year was certainly 2007 from a stats standpoint and his 2006 wasn't bad luck at all, he just wasn't good.

Arroyo's 2006 was luck driven too.

Given age and counting last season more heavily than others I'd certainly rather have Blanton but he is a #3 starter at best in my opinion.

Of course Harang, Arroyo, Blanton match up pretty decently with Zambrano, Hill, Lilly and with Sheets, Gallardo, whoever steps up for the brewers and that is what really matters. This puts their pitching in the general realm of the other teams in the central assuming the rest of the roster can find a servicable #4/#5.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Thu Feb 14, 2008 9:17 pm

How do we measure luck again?
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:33 pm

ams wrote:How do we measure luck again?


You start by looking at a composite ERA, the one I use is xERA. In 2005 Blanton had a 4.45 xERA but a 3.54 ERA. In 2006 he had a 4.87 xERA but a 4.82 ERA. In 2007 he had a 3.93 xERA but a 3.95 ERA. Which one of these things is not like the other?

Strand Rate and Hit Rate (BABIP) are usually the big luck(or variance if you prefer that word) culprits with HR/FB being in there too. In 2005 Blanton stranded 75% of runners against him which is higher than most pitchers can sustain. He also had a 26% hit rate against which is very low for a groundball pitcher. Both of those things have regressed to what you would expect out of them now.

Blanton has shown pretty decent skill growth over the last 3 years. He has kept a good GB% (47% last year). His K/9 has climbed from 5.2 to 5.5 which is still low but it is better. His BB/9 has gone from 3.0 to 1.6, this is the big reason he was so good last year. If he can keep his BB's that low he will stay very good, however almost no pitchers in baseball keep it that low so I'm dubious.

Last year Arroyo's K/9 went down and his BB/9 went up, those are both bad things. His FB% also went up which is another bad thing. His xERA in 2006 was 4.05, in 2007 it was 4.55. I'm guessing since he is still only 31 that he settles in somewhere between those two but it is a tough read since he has a relatively small body of work as a starter and his 2005 stats were so goofy (his K/9 was only 4.4 that year for some reason).
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