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I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby Grouperman941 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:10 pm

ams wrote: There's a reason why blanton isn't so attractive to many of you. One reason is, you don't hear anything about him. He plays in Oakland, he's not flashy and he's certainly not a tall, think fireballer. He's not a superstar. He's just a solid pitcher who eats innings and does everything else very well.


Actually, I think the reason he is not attractive here is that we are all focused on fantasy cats, and Blanton is average in that department. More than a few members of the Cafe have probably been watching Blanton since 2003 at least, wondering what he could do in the bigs. In MLB, he is definitely not a disappointment, but in FBB, unless your league is very deep or you count IP, he sort of is.

The players the As might get here, though, is the issue, I think. We'll be comparing these young guys to what the O's got or what the Twins got, and it really should be a lot less.
Be excellent to each other.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:27 pm

benjapage wrote:
Broncmet724 wrote:Not to belittle your post, but just dropping .80 ERA from a pitcher along with the WHiP and the Ks, makes all pitchers a lot better.

Joe Blanton is what he is, a solid #3, decent #2 starting pitcher


this conversation boils down to a few points:
1. how good blanton is over the next 3 years vs. how good bailey (for example) might be over the next several years
2. the value--especially for small market teams--of various stats as expressed in cold cash-money and as expressed in accurately predicting the probable future.
3. beane's position of power vs. the reds position of what? patience? desperation? what SHOULD the reds position be?

this is just starting to get good. thanks, ams.

b


Ben,
Good to see you getting involved my boy.

To answer your questions, and I know you know I know about you thoughts because, well, I am an a's fan and that plays into my wheel house.

In response to your conversation points:
1. I would say statistically, Blanton is a better bet, at this point, to be better than Bailey over the next few to several years because he's proven some things already in 3 full seasons with complete durability and innings logged. And he's only 27. His peripherals have been consistent from A to the majors (a great sign). Bailey has shown a decline in his peripherals as he's moved up in relation to his innings. He had a groin injury last year that kept him out a month. The start to him getting into the minor league games was delayed because of delays and there are some in the industry who think he is injury prone/injury waiting to happen (see Will Carroll). His injury questions, coupled with his declining peripherals scare me a bit.
2. Edge to blanton here again. You are looking at a guy like Bailey who could be an injury prone strikeout pitcher who can't strike people out in the majors. Whereas I think we have seen what blanton will give you. At best, most likely, in the NL he'll be a 3.50 ERA guy. I think at worst, he'll be at 4.00. But he'll give you 200+innings and a solid k/bb. Blanton will be 3.7million next year, probably 5-7 million something in 2009 and then 7-9million or so in 2010 at the most. Or he could be locked up now for a few years at say $6/7 million per year now, which in this day and age is a freaking steal. Bailey will be at league min for 3 years and then arb. eligible for 3. IF he can rock it, he'll be a great value. Or he could turn into a middle relief pitcher. we just don't know.
3. I believe strongly that adding blanton NOW gives the reds a damned strong 1-3 in the rotation, with belisle as a good 4/5 and I am sure Krivsky can pick up another scrap heap pitcher until Cueto is ready. I have no idea what a deal would be involving the reds, but I would think Votto/Bailey/X for Blanton/Dan Johnson makes a hell of a lot of sense. Wayne doesn't have to make this deal, I just think it makes the reds better for right now and keeps them strong and cheap for years.

The A's and reds are in two very different places: The a's are admittedly rebuilding and trading away very good players for prospects. They had a great 10 year run of competing with very little. And while they didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs but one time in all those post season series, the Reds could only dream of having similar success. They have sucked badly for years and I firmly believe that Krivsky's job is on the line at this point with Jocketty waiting in the wings. Krivsky, in my opinion, should take the "risk" and get Blanton to be competitive right now. If the reds win, it will lessen the blow if Bailey becomes very good (and it'll probably be another year or so anyways). If the deal turns out to be a dud, he's going to be out of a job anyway and it won't matter what happens with Bailey, Votto, Blanton, Dan Johnson or Cueto. (That's what I like to call the "Dan O'Brien Method").

Make it happen Wayne, bring a winner to cincinnati.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:32 pm

Great point Grouper, in regards to the fantasy aspect. Tremendous.
However, I am talking about many fans on many boards - not just this fantasy baseball one.
But it's funny how fantasy baseball plays into our mind (all of us, including me a lot too) when talking about real baseball. Maybe that's why I have seen people say they'd rather have Andy Pettitte now on their team than Blanton. Well, that's because they aren't in charge of the players salaries! I mean seriously, Pettitte is going to be like 36 and Blanton is 27. Their numbers were very similar last year (blanton with the slight edge). Someone really would take Andy P and $16million contract vs. Blanton and $3.7 million? Hilarious.

Good post man.

Grouperman941 wrote:
ams wrote: There's a reason why blanton isn't so attractive to many of you. One reason is, you don't hear anything about him. He plays in Oakland, he's not flashy and he's certainly not a tall, think fireballer. He's not a superstar. He's just a solid pitcher who eats innings and does everything else very well.


Actually, I think the reason he is not attractive here is that we are all focused on fantasy cats, and Blanton is average in that department. More than a few members of the Cafe have probably been watching Blanton since 2003 at least, wondering what he could do in the bigs. In MLB, he is definitely not a disappointment, but in FBB, unless your league is very deep or you count IP, he sort of is.

The players the As might get here, though, is the issue, I think. We'll be comparing these young guys to what the O's got or what the Twins got, and it really should be a lot less.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:48 pm

I don't think Uncle Billy will be asking for Homer Bailey.
I think the "name value" is too much over say Cueto who is lesser known.
And Baileys AAA stop last year was very unimpressive for how good he's hyped to be. I just don't see him as a player that we'd go for.
I think the deal Billy would go for would be Votto/Cueto and ?
I think Krivsky might end up going for that because (and these are what i perceive to be his judgments) Cueto is quite small and Votto can't field.
Obviously if we add Dan Johnson we can get a bit more.
I agree that Blanton is an excellent pitcher, but if we can get a deal centred around the players that I suggested I'd take that every time.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:09 pm

I'd much rather get Cueto, but I didn't think Krivsky would give up Cueto. Hells yes, I would love Ceuto and Votto. I am just not a Bailey believer right now.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:11 am

AussieDodger wrote:And Baileys AAA stop last year was very unimpressive for how good he's hyped to be. I just don't see him as a player that we'd go for.


Blanton's road stops have been very unimpressive for the last 2 years. Maybe it's just a small sample size issue (39 games isn't that small), but I would let another owner find that out if the price is Cueto and Votto. That's just ridiculous.

Didn't Bailey have an injury mid-season last year while he was at AAA?
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby IllinoisBandit » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:46 am

Ya, last year was an injury plagued season. He was pitching through that groin injury so he could get a shot in the Bigs. His fastball isn't what it was hyped to be, IMO. A little too straight and more like 93 rather than the 97+ he was scouted at.

That said, it's still a better fastball than most have and I really think over time he will develop control and 2 secondary pitches. Get this, his hands are literally too big to throw off-speed pitches - his changeup still comes out going 90+. I think he'll figure something out. He's pretty intelligent and seems like a really nice guy.

He'll be a really solid #2 MLB pitcher if he stays healthy (probably similar to Cueto if you ask me - though that is mainly based off heresay).

Oh, and Bailey/Votto for Blanton gets a ;-D in my book. I'd guarantee playoffs in either '08 or '09 with that rotation and this pathetic division.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:56 am

Yes, his road splits for ERA aren't good.
However, his peripherals are consistent for home and road.

And that's his issue. That's his ONE issue that you can beat up on him for. Take that discrepenacy out and then maybe you are talking about him being a fringe #1 pitcher - and at that point you can't afford him. That "issue" is what puts him at a #2.

What makes me feel better about it, again, is that his peripherals are fully consistent through the splits.

Is it that he's more comfortable pitching at "home" or in Oakland Coliseum?
In regards to ERA and HOME/ROAD splits:

Look at a guy like Arroyo:
In 2005 with the Red Sox, he was almost 1.00 better away from Fenway.
In 2006 with the Reds, he was almost a 1.50 better at HOME in GABP..
In 2007 with the Reds, he was .50 better AWAY from GABP.

Harang, all years with the Reds:
In 2005, he was 1.00 better at HOME.
In 2006, he was 1.60 better on the ROAD.
In 2007, he was 0.60 better at HOME.

Johan Santana, all with the Twins:
In 2005, he was about even home and road.
In 2006, he was 1.20 better at HOME.
In 2007, he was 0.80 better on the ROAD.

Is it possible that the the home/road splits are completely a fluke? And that Blanton just happens to be better at "home" by coincidence? Other pitchers splits vary from year to year and home to road.

They change leagues and teams and parks and it changes again. So I can appreciate that concern about Blanton, it's certainly a valid concern. Or, it could be a complete fluke.

None the less, it's his biggest "issue" and it's one that may be a fluke. I feel more confident with him going to the NL and having an offense behind him than I am worried about his splits.


kab21 wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:And Baileys AAA stop last year was very unimpressive for how good he's hyped to be. I just don't see him as a player that we'd go for.


Blanton's road stops have been very unimpressive for the last 2 years. Maybe it's just a small sample size issue (39 games isn't that small), but I would let another owner find that out if the price is Cueto and Votto. That's just ridiculous.

Didn't Bailey have an injury mid-season last year while he was at AAA?
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby IllinoisBandit » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:14 am

ams wrote:Is it possible that the the home/road splits are completely a fluke? And that Blanton just happens to be better at "home" by coincidence? Other pitchers splits vary from year to year and home to road.


I usually consider home/road splits a fluke as well. Personally, I chalk it up to feeling a little more comfortable at home than on the road. The sample sizes obviously decrease when you look at splits and then it's very possible for the quality of the pitcher's opponents at home vs away to vary drastically.

So, short story, I don't put much stock in them.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:06 pm

IllinoisBandit wrote:
ams wrote:Is it possible that the the home/road splits are completely a fluke? And that Blanton just happens to be better at "home" by coincidence? Other pitchers splits vary from year to year and home to road.


I usually consider home/road splits a fluke as well. Personally, I chalk it up to feeling a little more comfortable at home than on the road. The sample sizes obviously decrease when you look at splits and then it's very possible for the quality of the pitcher's opponents at home vs away to vary drastically.

So, short story, I don't put much stock in them.


Home/road splits can be a fluke to an extent. But Oakland is a pitchers park. You have to adjust for that. Because he won't be taking that stadium with him.

Blanton's ERA+ (takes park effect into account)
2005 - 123
2006 - 92
2007 - 106
Career - 105

Yes, his road splits for ERA aren't good.
However, his peripherals are consistent for home and road.

And that's his issue. That's his ONE issue that you can beat up on him for. Take that discrepenacy out and then maybe you are talking about him being a fringe #1 pitcher - and at that point you can't afford him. That "issue" is what puts him at a #2.


A 105 career ERA+ is not a fringe #1. I wouldn't consider it a #2. Calling him a #3 might be fair.

I would consider him close to Carlos Silva with a few more K's.
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