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I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby cards05 » Mon Feb 11, 2008 3:55 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote: Nomar's decent at first and pretty awful at third and shouldn't be blocking Andy again.


I have to disagree with you there. .600 OPS doesn't play well at 1B or 3B (see Aurilia, Rich)

So Colletti is going to trade LaRoche because Nomar can play 3rd. To get Blanton.
I am so glad I don't support the Dodgers anymore.

mlbtraderumors.com wrote:Troy E. Renck believes the Dodgers are after Joe Blanton, with the A's asking for Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, and a prospect.


Isn't it seen as very very embarrassing to trade for someone back to your team (Ethier)? Or is that fantasy baseball only?

mlbtraderumors.com wrote:He also says the Reds are "pushing hard" for Blanton, which jives with the previous info. The Reds are still kind of shaky behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.


Pushing hard? Now the Dodgers are in the picture for real the Reds offer could go up up up up up.
This could be a really big haul. ;-D

These two GMs competing for Blanton reminds me of the Simpsons episode when Homer invites distant family members onto his front lawn, and then they put pots on their heads and charge into each other.

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It looks like you joined in 2006. You loved the Dodgers then and love the A's now???????????????? Who are you backing in 2008? What about 2009? At least you watch the Simpsons.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote: Nomar's decent at first and pretty awful at third and shouldn't be blocking Andy again.


I have to disagree with you there. .600 OPS doesn't play well at 1B or 3B (see Aurilia, Rich)


I was thinking about defense.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby kab21 » Mon Feb 11, 2008 6:57 pm

SlightlyStoopid wrote:I find it odd that Either is involved in this rumor since the A's traded him away to aquire Milton Bradley back in '05. What do I know though?


It seems odd that the A's would be asking for Either since they already have too many corner OF'ers and DH's as it is.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:40 pm

Last I checked, developing very good starting pitching is about the hardest thing to do in baseball.

let me clarify a few things for you all:

1. just because it's "rumored" Beane asked for something, doesn't mean he actually did
2. even if he DID ask for that package, why wouldn't he? Blanton is cost controlled for 3 years and it's not like they HAVE to trade him! He's cheap as all hell and pitches very well and there is no urgency for them to make a deal. Other teams will, at some point, crap their pant s and need him and they'll know, as they should, they'll have to pay dearly to get him. If it's now, ST, or the deadline.... that's what a smart GM does in a situation of power. It may not be the package that is rumored, but I am sure it'll be a nice return.
2b. Billy Beane is smart. You may hate him and yes, he's made some bad deals. But he's pretty good at his job. He timed Haren and Blanton perfectly. By trading Haren before Bedard/Johan, he got an exceptional deal. The deal looked even better after Johan's cause it is a better package, by far, than the Twins got for santana (and arguably close to what the O's got for bedard). Hell, the return for Swisher was better than what the twins got (and another tip, the 2 pitchers they got for Swisher - De Los Santos and Gio Gonzalez are pretty slick). Now, Blanton is the best pitcher "available" and there is no rush to deal him.
3. Blanton is actually a VERY good pitcher. He's not only an innings eater (averages 200 per season over 3 seasons, and 230 last year) he's never missed a start, is very durable, doesn't walk anyone (40 in 230ip last year) and doesn't give up the long ball. His total k numbers are not "Stud" status, but his k/bb ratio is strong and consistent (and did I mention he only walked 40 batters in 230 innings?) He does give up hits, that's because he pitches to contact.

While many rightfully bring up the contrast between home/road splits (he's about a run better at home) it's interesting to note that all his peripherals are about the same from road/home. And while also, you can bring up the Coliseum being a "pitchers park" it is interesting to note that Oakland's offense has routinely been horrible at run support. Which, even though I believe "wins" are overrated, he could be closer to a perennial 20 game winner in the NL, with an offense behind him, than the current 14 wins he averages now.

Blanton has had 3 full years and while his ERA has shifted, he's continued to put up consistent peripherals, which is very encouraging.
In addition, dude is affordable, he's cost controlled in arbitration for 3 more years and making $3.7 million in 2008. I don't believe there are too many 14 game winning, 200+inning giving pitchers avail for that cost. More importantly, one you can count on to do it again.

He's no Johan. But he's good.

And if the Reds could get him, they would have 3 200+ ip pitchers to front their rotation - very very impressive.

Homer Bailey is a tremendous pitching "prospect". He had 2 good starts last year in the majors and stunk it up the rest of the time - small sample size. But his very solid Minor League numbers doesn't guarantee he'll be a fantastic, or even consistently good, starting pitcher.

If you look at the other pitchers with 200 ip's in the majors last year, you'll see most of them are "studs".
Sabathia
Halladay
Webb
Peavy
Santana
and that means stud money - something the Reds can't "afford". He's basically a poor man's Roy Halladay, except he's healthy. That's right: Blanton's ERA/WHIP is a bit higher, but halladay costs 3-4x as much. That's why Blanton is a good deal. He's cheap for what he produces. You could lower his ERA by .80 and whip by .15 and increase his k's by 50 for the season and then you'd be paying him 3-6x as much money. Or you could have this guy and know he'll start for you and spend the other money on other needs.

If Blanton was on the market now, he'd be getting $10million per year, easily. He's not flashy and most people probably haven't even seen him pitch because he's on the a's - and you are just looking purely at his numbers. Throw this guy into the NL (weaker league and facing a pitcher) and all those numbers get better. And he's 27 NOW with 3 full years under his belt.

I hope the reds make this deal. They need to have a very good season right now because it's been consistent crapping of the bed from them for years. They can keep Blanton for years at a reasonable rate if they lock him up now. Bailey may or may not be as good, and if he is, it's probably still not this year.

In end, who knows what happens. But here is some knowledge dropped for you all.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals

Postby giants8307 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 1:45 am

JTWood wrote:Dear Reds Ownership,

Hire me. I won't F up your organization.

Signed,

Everyone else in the world


This is one of the better cover letters I've read.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:46 am

Here are some numbers:

Halladay(3 year avg): 195 ip, 126k, 33 BB, 186 HA, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15 wins
2007 225 139 48 232 3.71 1.24 16

Blanton(3 year avg): 208 ip, 121k, 55 BB, 220 HA, 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 14 wins
2007 230 140 40 240 3.95 1.21 14

Blanton JUST turned 27.
Halladay will be turning 31 in May.

Now, basically, Halladay's numbers are better there, sure. But at what cost?
Halladay and Blanton will both be FA's in 2011.

Halladay is owed $40 million over the next 3 season: 2008: $10 million, 2009: $14.25 million, 2010: $15.75 million

Blanton is making $3.7 million this year and is arbitration elgible again in 2009 and 2010.

Now, I realize this is a pretty flaccid argument, but I still found it pretty interesting, when you compare the costs of another pitcher who is not THAT much better than Blanton (as it seems). Certainly, you can pull up other guys BETTER than blanton for even less money (Felix Hernandez and others for example). But I think if you look into the stats, you'll find more comparison's similar to the blanton/hallday one (where blanton is making alot less for not much less value) than the other way around. And that's in consideration to what we expect Blanton to do based on 3 full years, which I would think are: throw 200+ innings/durable, walk very little and give up few HR's.

In addition:
Only Haren, Santana, Lackey, Sabathia, Buehrle, and Garland have thrown more IP with a better ERA+ than Blanton (in the AL) over the last 3 years.

***edited to show Blanton just turned 27, not 28 as I had originally posted.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby Broncmet724 » Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:13 pm

ams wrote: That's why Blanton is a good deal. He's cheap for what he produces. You could lower his ERA by .80 and whip by .15 and increase his k's by 50 for the season and then you'd be paying him 3-6x as much money. Or you could have this guy and know he'll start for you and spend the other money on other needs.

If Blanton was on the market now, he'd be getting $10million per year, easily. He's not flashy and most people probably haven't even seen him pitch because he's on the a's - and you are just looking purely at his numbers. Throw this guy into the NL (weaker league and facing a pitcher) and all those numbers get better. And he's 27 NOW with 3 full years under his belt.


Not to belittle your post, but just dropping .80 ERA from a pitcher along with the WHiP and the Ks, makes all pitchers a lot better.

Joe Blanton is what he is, a solid #3, decent #2 starting pitcher
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby benjapage » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:33 am

Broncmet724 wrote:Not to belittle your post, but just dropping .80 ERA from a pitcher along with the WHiP and the Ks, makes all pitchers a lot better.

Joe Blanton is what he is, a solid #3, decent #2 starting pitcher


this conversation boils down to a few points:
1. how good blanton is over the next 3 years vs. how good bailey (for example) might be over the next several years
2. the value--especially for small market teams--of various stats as expressed in cold cash-money and as expressed in accurately predicting the probable future.
3. beane's position of power vs. the reds position of what? patience? desperation? what SHOULD the reds position be?

this is just starting to get good. thanks, ams.

b
yeah, yes...
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby High Heater » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:13 am

ams wrote:Last I checked, developing very good starting pitching is about the hardest thing to do in baseball.

3. Blanton is actually a VERY good pitcher. He's not only an innings eater (averages 200 per season over 3 seasons, and 230 last year) he's never missed a start, is very durable, doesn't walk anyone (40 in 230ip last year) and doesn't give up the long ball. His total k numbers are not "Stud" status, but his k/bb ratio is strong and consistent (and did I mention he only walked 40 batters in 230 innings?) He does give up hits, that's because he pitches to contact.


i liked reading your post but i do have to disagree with blanton and not being just an innings eater. to me the definition on an innings eater is 1.): who pitches alot of innings a year and is dependable there. 2.) one who has a "rubber arm" 3.) one who's generaly a good ground ball pitcher and relies on his defense to get his outs instead of the ability to strikeout a batter, i.e. not fantastic stuff but knows how to pitch.

to me that lists blanton in a definition..... hes a valuable comodity but i just dont see people giving up a blue chiper guy for his services. some could i mean i eye witnessed Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir just a few years ago to take a recently bad trade in reference.

could happen. blanton is certainly better then zambrano and has value. but i think he is what he is a very dependable arm that knows how to pitch but nowhere near #1 and a good #2. he makes for a great #3 on good teams imo.
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Re: I Hope This Is For Reals (Blanton Rumor) - Merged

Postby ams » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:54 pm

I understand your thoughts and the poster who said that a .80 difference in the ERA makes the pitcher.

Here's something you need to keep in mind.

I made the reference to Halladay and Blanton to show you the difference in money. Blanton's big difference with halladay is .80 ERA. But look at the rest of the numbers and how they match up. Pretty damn similar. Now look at their age can cost. Blanton can do exactly what halladay does, but will give some more runs. But he's 27 years old and making WAY less than Halladay.

And that my friends, is how you build a ball club. You get VALUE for your money. If you were creating a team right now, would you spend $14 million on Halladay? OR take a guy who's ERA is greater, but matches in all the other peripherals and makes $10 million less?

The numbers don't lie - and I am not just talking about blanton vs. halladay. Blantons' peripherals vs. ip have improved every year.

The salaries don't lie - look at the $16million that pettite is getting this year vs. Big Fat Joe's 3.7 million for example. And now look at the difference in their numbers.

There's a reason why blanton isn't so attractive to many of you. One reason is, you don't hear anything about him. He plays in Oakland, he's not flashy and he's certainly not a tall, think fireballer. He's not a superstar. He's just a solid pitcher who eats innings and does everything else very well. He's not johan santana and he's not eric bedard (but he's more durable). But that also means, you are getting very high production at a fraction of the cost. Building a rotation with 3 guys like Harang, Blanton and Arroyo as 3 200+ ip will simply be a force, flat out. Having a stud and 4 other slots filled with #4 and #5 starters as some other teams do, will simply not get it done.

Blanton in the NL on most teams (definitely the Reds) a #2 pitcher. If you look at his stats, they tell you so. The move to the NL will also tell you that.

Bailey is possibly a huge talent, but it's not guaranteed and history will show it's more likely for him to be mediocre than a star.
The other thing that gets me thinking about him:

He's played 3 years in the minors if you take out the 12 ip he pitched in 2004.
In 2005, he threw a ton of k's, but his era and whip were worrisome. His walks were okay vs. his k's.
.....that was Single A.

In 2006, he split time between AA and A and interestingly enough, his ERA was 1/2 as much in AA, than in A. His peripherals were basically identical. Great stuff.
.....that was Double A and Single A.

In 2007, his ERA and WHIP were impressive at 3.08 and 1.21. However, his peripherals declined and were pretty bad as he sunk to 59 k's and 32 walks - way off pace from his Single A and AA peripherals.
.....that was Triple AAA.

When he got to the majors, he had ONE outstanding start vs. Oakland (1 ER in 7ip's, only 2 hits!! but 4 walks and 3 k's). His next best start was against ARI (5ip, 2ER, 5k's, 2bb's). The rest of his starts were basically terrible and here are some numbers to chew on from those starts:
4/3
3/1
4/3
3/1
5/2
2/5
1/3
2/5
4/5

Those are his bb/k in his starts in the majors.
He ended with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.

What does all that show me?
It shows me Bailey is at his best when he's striking people out and is likely a boom or bust pitcher (at this point). And as he moved up in the ranks, he was not able to (at this point) overpower hitters in the upper leagues.

Thus, if he loses his ability to blow people away, he could be in trouble and he could be ineffective.

I am not say that is his fate. However, it's interesting to note, even on the short sample size, because Bailey-crazy fans are doing that based on what? 2 seasons of A and AA ball? Well, then it's not that crazy to show the other numbers.

Now, again, Bailey could be terrific, but really, it's too early to tell and I think he could use another 1/2 or full year in AAA. Just my opinion.
I don't think he's going to be our Jamie Shields breakout candidate this year. And when you look at shield's Minor league numbers (and his major league numbers from his first ML year in 2006 and his breakout year in 2007) he has a tremendous k/bb rate, at every level, through the majors.

Shields is an interesting guy to look at. This guy has "star" quality way over Blanton. He throws very hard and k's a lot of guys. But hey, look at last year, he already got injured and they had to shut him down. Look at Rich Harden? Same thing. He's got better stuff than anyone, k's guys, throws really hard and is a cy young pitcher, if he can stay healthy. But he can't. And alot of guys who throw really hard have issues (not all, but many). And bailey already got hurt last year while in the majors.

But in Blanton, here's a guy that won't blow you away (But he does well in the low 90's with a great curve) but he puts the ball in play by pitching to contact, has great control, doesn't walk you, doesn't give up the long ball and most importantly, is very durable.

Bailey may be better than Blanton down the road and it could be this year. But I doubt it greatly. And if I am on the Reds, I want to get a guy now who will give me a shot to win this year and Blanton can do that. At the same time, he's cheap.

It just makes sense.

What does that show me?

High Heater wrote:
ams wrote:Last I checked, developing very good starting pitching is about the hardest thing to do in baseball.

3. Blanton is actually a VERY good pitcher. He's not only an innings eater (averages 200 per season over 3 seasons, and 230 last year) he's never missed a start, is very durable, doesn't walk anyone (40 in 230ip last year) and doesn't give up the long ball. His total k numbers are not "Stud" status, but his k/bb ratio is strong and consistent (and did I mention he only walked 40 batters in 230 innings?) He does give up hits, that's because he pitches to contact.


i liked reading your post but i do have to disagree with blanton and not being just an innings eater. to me the definition on an innings eater is 1.): who pitches alot of innings a year and is dependable there. 2.) one who has a "rubber arm" 3.) one who's generaly a good ground ball pitcher and relies on his defense to get his outs instead of the ability to strikeout a batter, i.e. not fantastic stuff but knows how to pitch.

to me that lists blanton in a definition..... hes a valuable comodity but i just dont see people giving up a blue chiper guy for his services. some could i mean i eye witnessed Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir just a few years ago to take a recently bad trade in reference.

could happen. blanton is certainly better then zambrano and has value. but i think he is what he is a very dependable arm that knows how to pitch but nowhere near #1 and a good #2. he makes for a great #3 on good teams imo.
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