High Heater wrote:7. Gallardo - i like his stuff and command right now but i fear his weight, and he looks more like an innings eater to me
AKA John Sickels thinks these things and you're ripping off his opinion http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/2/5/134748/4138
What he did last year was no fluke in my view. So the question is, can he stay healthy? He's been remarkably durable as a pro. Listed at 6-1, 210, he doesn't have the prototype 6-4, 210 pound pitcher's body and may have to watch his weight as he gets older. But he repeats his delivery well, and appears to have a resilient arm. I don't think his injury risk is any higher than it is for any other pitcher his age, and perhaps it's a bit lower.
I could see Gallardo being a pitcher who is best in his early-to-mid-20s, then gradually fading as he approaches 30. My guess is that his best years will be in the next five, and that eventually he'll become "just" an inning-eating starter. Assuming he stays healthy, Gallardo should be recognized as Number One starter and among the best pitchers in baseball in the 2008-2012 window, but that by 2014 he'll be more of an inning-eater type. An early peak, followed by a very gradual decline in other words. No massive sudden shock injury, but rather a slow loss of effectiveness as his arm wears down.
Sickels also mentions that Gallardo is set up for a 5-6 year window of very good pitching before he hits this presumed decline (which I don't buy, but who knows). So for this year anyway, I think very highly of Gallardo. He should put up good ERA/WHIP/K numbers while also being a team that should support him with plenty of offense.