under 24 pitcher rankings

[Yoda]

How would you rank the following and what is your projection for them? Where would you take them?
Cain
Hamels
Lincecum
Gallardo
Kazmir
Carmona
Felix
Billingsley
Buchholz
Hughes
Joba
Greinke
Garza

[High Heater]

1. Kazmir - his stuff+age are off the chart projectablity. my easy #1 choice
2. Felix - again stuff and age but Kaz has learned command much earlier and Felix is a righty.
3. Lincecum - off the wall 1-2 punch of a FB+CB combo. needs alot better command and redefine his change-up.
4. Hamels - he'd be #2 on my list but i do not trust his health, and frankly putting him here is a risk.
5. Hughes - alot of people forgot him, that will change this year. make-up of all listed, good age and stuff.
6. Cain - really comparable stuff to Felix but not AS good. really really under rated righty. Bull-dog mentality
7. Gallardo - i like his stuff and command right now but i fear his weight, and he looks more like an innings eater to me
8. Joba - excellent stuff, best on here aside from felix from a Righty. will he last as a SP with 200IP?
9. Billingsley - great stuff again, good poise on the mound. very very erratic and sometimes poor command
10. Grienke - he has the upside to go as far as #3 on here, command and good stuff with now increased velocity
11. Bucholz - i like him, hes got decent stuff and better command then most on here. but his cieling is lower to me
12. Carmona - a one pitch pony to me, innings eater type with ground ball tendencies. not a true ace
13. Garza - i really question what TB saw in this guy to equal Young's talent. more of a #2 cieling #3 floor type to me.

i'd take them in that order. round wise i'd have to think more but that would depend on my hitting line-up at the time.

[jake_harv88]

Thats a long list of kids but out of them I would certainly take Kazmir first. He plays in a tough division but he basically dominates the yanks and sox (2.66 era, 10.5 K/9 vs sox, 3.00 era 9.4 k/9 vs yanks). I honestly think the devil rays could put up a lot of runs this year so 15-16 wins isn't totally ridiculous to expect. Most importantly I think Kazmir has the best shot to throw 200 innings this year. A lot of people are getting excited about Hughes, Joba, and Bulcholz but I doubt those guys approach 200 IP. At least they shouldn't. Hamels is probably really close to Kazmir as well. Again if anybody Hamels will probably approach 200 IP. I like Garza as a guy you can get really late in a draft who will provide some value. This would be my overall list I believe...

Kazmir
Hamels

Felix
Cain
Lincecum
Gallardo

Billingsley
Carmona
Hughes

Grienke
Garza
Joba
Bucholz

[Ender]

For 2008 only and for fantasy baseball purposes only.

Hamels
Kazmir
Felix
Gallardo
Carmona
Lincecum
Cain

I'm not anywhere close to done with pitching rankings so not going any deeper than that. Kazmir is hurt by that defense and division and his WHIP potential or he'd be #1. Lincecum and Cain are both hurt by the AAA lineup limiting their W's.

[jake_harv88]

For 2008 only and for fantasy baseball purposes only.

Hamels
Kazmir
Felix
Gallardo
Carmona
Lincecum
Cain

I'm not anywhere close to done with pitching rankings so not going any deeper than that. Kazmir is hurt by that defense and division and his WHIP potential or he'd be #1. Lincecum and Cain are both hurt by the AAA lineup limiting their W's.

I dont see how you can still use the division excuse to downplay Kazmir. He dominates the yankees and the red sox every time he plays them. Actually the team he plays the worst against is the Orioles...


O's pride

[Broncmet724]

for 2008 fantasy

1. Scott Kazmir (I hate you Steve Phillips I hate you)
I'm ok now
2. Cole Hamels
3. Matt Cain
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Francisco Liriano (I have him at 24, might be wrong)
7. Fausto Carmona
8. Jonathan Broxton
9. Yovani Gallardo
10. Chad Billingsley
11. Joakim Soria
12. Phil Hughes
13. Joba Chamberlain
14. Carlos Villanueva
15. Kevin Slowey
16. Matt Garza
17. Ian Kennedy

[acsguitar]

Um what about Ubaldo Jimenez? I assume he's not on this list because he is 24? Maybe this list is for those under 24

Ubaldo Jimenez is only 24 and I guarantee he has a better season then Garza, Bucholz, and Greinke.

Jimenez is the real deal.

Also, watch out for Franklin Morales.

[Ender]

For 2008 only and for fantasy baseball purposes only.

Hamels
Kazmir
Felix
Gallardo
Carmona
Lincecum
Cain

I'm not anywhere close to done with pitching rankings so not going any deeper than that. Kazmir is hurt by that defense and division and his WHIP potential or he'd be #1. Lincecum and Cain are both hurt by the AAA lineup limiting their W's.

I dont see how you can still use the division excuse to downplay Kazmir. He dominates the yankees and the red sox every time he plays them. Actually the team he plays the worst against is the Orioles...


O's pride

Because samples of 100 IP or less scatter over three seasons have almost no meaning to me. If he pitches in a good offensive division it is a disadvantage regardless.

[MTUCache]

Projections: (W/ERA/WHIP/K) (Based largely off of numbers I've seen on this site and my own fudges)

Cain - 10/3.50/1.25/185
Hamels - 16/3.40/1.15/185
Lincecum - 12/3.60/1.25/190
Gallardo - 15/3.50/1.25/170
Kazmir - 14/3.20/1.30/215
Carmona - 17/3.50/1.20/140
Hernandez - 13/3.60/1.30/180
Billingsley - 12/3.70/1.35/170
Buchholz - 14/3.50/1.20/150
Hughes - 13/3.90/1.25/140
Chamberlain - 12/3.50/1.20/150
Greinke - 12/3.60/1.20/155
Garza - 10/4.00/1.35/130

and a couple more that I had my eye on last year:
Slowey - 10/3.80/1.20/130
Sonnanstine - 9/4.50/1.30/125

That gives statistical averages of 12.6/3.63/1.25/161

Compute standard deviations away from the average (positive for W/K, negative for ERA/WHIP), add them together and I get these numbers:

Hamels - 4.8
Kazmir - 3.2
Carmona - 2.4
Gallardo - 1.8
Buchholz - 1.5
Lincecum - 0.9
Chamberlain - 0.6
Greinke - 0.5
Cain - 0.2
Hernandez - 0.2
Slowey - (1.0)
Hughes - (1.5)
Billingsley - (1.8)
Garza - (5.2)
Sonnanstine - (6.6)

For me, that sets up my tiers like:
Hamels
Kazmir

Carmona
Gallardo
Buchholz

Lincecum
Chamberlain
Greinke
Cain
Hernandez

Slowey
Hughes
Billingsley

Garza
Sonnanstine

In a draft? I'm taking Kazmir first just about every time, because of injury concerns to Hamels and Carmona. I'm not considering either of them being a "risk", but it definitely drops their value that tiny bit to push Kazmir in front of Hamels. Probably not enough to push Gallardo or Buchholz in front of Carmona though.

[MTUCache]

To stick Liriano in there I figured him two ways... first assuming a full healthy season (200+ IP), then again with an injury-plagued season (100-120 IP)

Liriano (200) - 15/3.35/1.30/200 (factoring some extra baserunners here in his later starts)
Liriano (100) - 10/3.35/1.10/120

That gives values of:
Liriano (200) - 2.56
Liriano (100) - 0.73

So, if you think Liriano is going to stay healthy, he's about equal to Carmona (both likely have the same risk of injury to me as well).

If not, he's down in the Chamberlain/Greinke/Cain/Hernandez category... still not bad by any means.