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Looking at the numbers

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Looking at the numbers

Postby CadensDad » Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:46 pm

Ok, I took 6 Outfielders and got last years numbers, And the spreadsheet projections for this year as well as the draft spot's for the players in the 2 Cafe mocks done so far.

First up Nick Markakis
24 Years of age coming off a .300/23/112/97/18 year, In one draft he went 4.09 and in the other 4.03 his projected stats as of this year are.....300/25/105/100/16

Next Jeff Francoeur-
24 years old, went Draft 1 7.08, Draft 2 8.01 last years numbers where .292/19/105/84/5 projected this year......288/28/110/89/4

Then Jason Bay
29 years of age went Draft 1 5.06, Draft 2 8.12 last years numbers where .247/21/84/78/4 this year projected stats......280/30/100/89/7

Now Pat Burrell-
31 years old went Draft 11.02, Draft 2 13.09 last years numbers .256/30/97/77/0 projected numbers .261/30/100/82/0

Tori Hunter
Age-34 drafted, Draft 1 6.09, Draft 2 5.06, last years numbers .287/28/107/94/18 this years projected numbers......275/25/100/86/14

Bobby Abreu
Age-34 drafted, Draft 1 4.10, Draft 2 4.01 last years numbers,.283/16/101/123/25 projected this year .............292/15/110/120/22


Just wanted to point out the difference in some of these guy's numbers compared to where they get drafted, I fell unsafe drafting Hunter/Abreu where they are going when I can get Francoeur,Bay or even Burrell later in the draft.
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby MTUCache » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:22 pm

CadensDad wrote:Ok, I took 6 Outfielders and got last years numbers, And the spreadsheet projections for this year as well as the draft spot's for the players in the 2 Cafe mocks done so far.


Just wanted to point out the difference in some of these guy's numbers compared to where they get drafted, I fell unsafe drafting Hunter/Abreu where they are going when I can get Francoeur,Bay or even Burrell later in the draft.


Yeah, it's a tradeoff, but even looking at your projected stats you can see what you're trading off.

Downgrading from Abreu to Burrell using your projections, you're dropping 30 points in average, 10 RBIs, 40 runs, and 22 steals, just to pick up an extra 15 HR. That, to me anyway, is a pretty clear indication that these two players are certainly not in the same class... not even close.

Using a less extreme example, going from Hunter to Francoeur, you're actually gaining slightly in every category except steals... but you have to ask yourself whether you want the "sure thing" who's a relatively proven commodity, or if you'd like the "next thing" who could wind up not being at all what we think he's going to be.

Maybe that example is worth two rounds in value... maybe not. But I don't feel like any of those draft positions are too far out of whack for what you're getting at that spot. Maybe Markakis is a little over-valued because of last year's hype, but other than that I don't think that there's all that much relative value in dropping down from Hunter/Abreu to Francoeur/Bay and saving yourself one round of value by assuming extra risk. Now... if you can find a position (like Catcher let's say) where you can make up that extra value by taking a Russell Martin or VMart in that fifth round and drop your OF slot to the 6th, then you're making up that value easily because you're jumping probably 10 rounds of value with your catcher's stats. I'd much rather end up with a VMart/Franceour combo than a Molina/Hunter combo...
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby eftda » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:38 pm

SHHHHHH
Francoeur = Bay ;-)
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby MTUCache » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:40 pm

eftda wrote:SHHHHHH
Francoeur = Bay (+.020 BA) ;-)


FYP. ;)
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby eftda » Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:11 pm

haha... true, true
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:46 pm

Francoer is being drafted all of 1 round later than Bay so they should be about equal. Some people just like the odds of Bay pumping out 10 SB. That is also a pretty optimistic projection for Francoer.
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Re: Looking at the numbers

Postby dclark0699 » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:03 pm

CadensDad wrote:Ok, I took 6 Outfielders and got last years numbers, And the spreadsheet projections for this year as well as the draft spot's for the players in the 2 Cafe mocks done so far.

First up Nick Markakis
24 Years of age coming off a .300/23/112/97/18 year, In one draft he went 4.09 and in the other 4.03 his projected stats as of this year are.....300/25/105/100/16

Next Jeff Francoeur-
24 years old, went Draft 1 7.08, Draft 2 8.01 last years numbers where .292/19/105/84/5 projected this year......288/28/110/89/4




Must - - - correct - - - grammar. :-o

Abreu and Markakis are in a level of their own and it would be hard to pass them up if the chance arose.

I think I'd gamble on Francouer over Hunter and Bay though.
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