So who has more value to your team, a stud middle reliever or an average OF. The league is a standard 5x5 mixed league. So lets say the MR is Marmol and the OF is Willingham. Who would contribute more stats to help you win your league? I would think a great MR gives you K's ERA and WHIP, along with the chance to close. What to you guys think?
I'm going with the stud MR... assuming of course that we're already beyond the everyday lineup of the draft and we're looking to fill in our reserves.
Replacement value is the key for me here. An average fantasy OF is a dime-a-dozen. When you do need this guy, there's going to be four other guys on the WW who have comparable stats, all of which you could have picked up for nothing.
The stud-MR has one thing working for him... he's a stud. If the closer goes down, or starts scuffling, he's bumped up to an impact closer. Somebody like Marmol has a pretty decent chance of being a second- or third-tier closer sometime before the all-star break this year.
When you're replacing another play in the everyday lineup, average doesn't do anything for me... I need potential. If the potential-guy doesn't pan out, we can always pick up average-guy later.
Worst case scenario, you end up getting an average OF as a throw-in in a blockbuster trade sometime down the road.
I'm always looking for guys who could bust out and have a great year. I'm not the least bit interested in the established guys who you know aren't going anywhere.
great point. a stud MR does seem to have more value/upside then a constant OF that has really no where to go but down. but another question comes to mind, it's still a MR, wouldn't you rather have a guy you know what you'll get out of rather then a MR??
Agree - if we're talking about your typical first reserve/bench OF as "average", then I will take the stud MR every time. I would not take a stud MR over a typical #3 OF (assuming only 3 start). That's right about where I draw the line.
My definition of a "stud MR" is one where I can reasonably predict their success (i.e. they have a good track record), they have great K numbers (above 9.00 K/9 ratio) and low ERA and WHIP numbers, and they are the main setup guy with a decent chance to close. See: Broxton, Zumaya (if he's healthy and doesn't start at closer), or Joba (if he doesn't move into a SP role)
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mannin52 wrote:great point. a stud MR does seem to have more value/upside then a constant OF that has really no where to go but down. but another question comes to mind, it's still a MR, wouldn't you rather have a guy you know what you'll get out of rather then a MR??
You're seeing this as a must-start situation then?
A MR isn't "useless" in a non-holds league. He just isn't as valuable... There are some pretty good statistical K/ERA/WHIP guys out there who aren't going to get you either Wins or Saves. Obviously you'd like to get somebody who's going to help you in four categories, but there are guys who get drafted who can help you in just one or two categories (think Juan Pierre or Todd Jones).
The few-and-far-between stud-MRs that are out there are terribly undervalued in non-holds leagues. In fact, I'd bet that unless they're on the radar for getting another closer's gig in the near future, you can probably pick up most of these guys after the draft.
I'd say this particular situation is a little different, considering the real possibility that Marmol will be the closer for a team that should win a lot of games. Between him and a Willingham, it's not even close. Several players will break out to give you the value of Willingham.
If you switch out Marmol for another middle reliever, one who is truely a middle reliever (no real chance to close), then I think it gets a little cloudier.
It really depends on the league settings: roster size and bench. In 5x5, if you can only start 2 RPs for instance, then are you going to use Marmol or a closer since Holds don't matter? I would think even a bottom of the barrel closer is worth more than Marmol in this case. A stud MR does not necessarily become a stud closer. I think this is a huge misconception.
Also, if you are starting 5 OF, then I would say Willingham has more value. In a standard 12 team league, this means 60 OFs will have a starting job. Given that there are only 90 starting OFs in MLB with the bottom 1/3 probably splitting time with others for whatever reasons throughout the season, the position becomes extremely scarce. Having Willingham, who has an everyday job and productive becomes very valuable.
If you have a deep bench, then you can also make an argument for stashing Marmol in case he does become the closer.
So it really depends on the league set up.
Last edited by Yoda on Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stud MR but I don't like Marmol as a stud. The first half of last year is the only time in his career he has shown decent control and the second half ERA was extremely luck driven. It really wont' surprise me to see him with a 4 ERA and 1.3 WHIP this season. Yeah the k's are great but not liking that ERA/WHIP risk in the 'stud MR' rounds. Take a guy like Broxton instead.
i like the fact you pointed out that that there are only 60 open OF spots in the MLB. we use 48 OF spots. so i would put willingham on the lower tier of those 48 spots. also we do have 2 RP spots, but we also use a couple SP spots along with a couple general P spots that can be used for any type of RP or SP. so putting marmol there along with a couple RPs would be nice. so with that info, would you rather have a lower 4th OF with some upside or a guy like marmol that can out up some big numbers and have a chance to become your 3rd RP??