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Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby bigwords » Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:28 pm

"But the felxibility comes up huge in the early goings of a season, where there are tons of values to be had on the wire. Well not tons, but you have no way of working those guys in."

Show me a guy that's plucked off of waiver wire that will return David Ortiz' value.

But more so, my point is that even factoring in the entire waiver wire pool as available replacement players at U for any of your teams' competitors, Ortiz still brings a huge statistical advantage at U.

Yes, I do get your point about opportunity cost. You select Ortiz. Therefore, you don't select um, Carlos Beltran. You are left with an inferior OF and when it comes time to look to the waiver wire to replace your underperforming schlub, you've limited your pool of potential pickups to outfielders instead of potential pickups at all positions. So perhaps by having David Ortiz, you're forced to sacrifice a little at another position during the course of the year, on top of the sacrifice you make at the beginning during the draft.

OK, but I'm factoring that in. And I'm saying that the value that Ortiz provides -- even at the most easily-replaced fantasy position -- is large enough to compensate for this and make drafting him very, very worthy of the high expense. Most people just assume it isn't. But crunching the VORP data makes it clear that Ortiz is certainly worthy.

Finally, you are undervaluing the value of consistency. Crunching the data, in a standard 5x5 league, there's only been one guy who ended each of the last three seasons as one of the top 10 batter values in baseball. That's David Ortiz. Not A-Rod, who underperformed his #1 ADP by about 15 slots in 2006. Not Pujols, who also underperformed his #1 ADP by 15 slots in 2007. Only Ortiz has consistently overperformed his ADP.

So perhaps you can factor that into your math. Yeah, you might have to settle for a lesser replacement player when you scramble to the waiver wire during the season, but you also can be reasonably certain that your top superstar is returning your draft or auction expenditure.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby horatio » Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:36 pm

well put bigwords - couldn't have said it better myself.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:42 pm

I don't use positional scarcity for anything but C's and ortiz simply does not come out as a top 9 pick for me this year. Has nothing to do with the utility slot or anything like that, just too many good young players with power/speed combos have passed him the last couple years. Once you get into the 10-15 range you get guys like Howard, Ortiz and Fielder and you could certainly argue the order to put them in.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Nails86 » Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:58 pm

I'll take Wright, Han Ram, Reyes, Utley, Cabrera etc. over a fat out of shape aging player with a bad knee.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:04 pm

im confused why you guys are talking about utility spots when he still qualifies at 1b in most leagues :-?
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Philliebuster » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:12 pm

He's 33, large frame, offseason knee surgery. At 3 I'm taking someone younger, with less injury potential. I think Papi is beginning his decline.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby pokerplaya » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:03 pm

I just took him at 17 overall in a re-draft and I am concerned. He's balky knee makes him a risky pick no matter how you slice it. But I still just can't seem to pass up the potential of .325 35-40hr, 120/120 at 17 overall. But there definitely were safe picks, even that late...
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Snakes Gould » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:27 pm

pokerplaya wrote:I just took him at 17 overall in a re-draft and I am concerned. He's balky knee makes him a risky pick no matter how you slice it. But I still just can't seem to pass up the potential of .325 35-40hr, 120/120 at 17 overall. But there definitely were safe picks, even that late...


you shouldnt be. thats a perfect spot for him.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby pokerplaya » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:28 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:I just took him at 17 overall in a re-draft and I am concerned. He's balky knee makes him a risky pick no matter how you slice it. But I still just can't seem to pass up the potential of .325 35-40hr, 120/120 at 17 overall. But there definitely were safe picks, even that late...


you shouldnt be. thats a perfect spot for him.


Over Sizemore, Vlad, Beltran, Braun?
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby The Jury » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:48 pm

Nails86 wrote:I'll take Wright, Han Ram, Reyes, Utley, Cabrera etc. over a fat out of shape aging player with a bad knee.


Is this based mostly on injury risk? If Ortiz plays his usual 150 games, then he posts numbers easily better than Miguel Cabrera, IMO.
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