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Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby JimmyBaseball » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:07 am

I have him slated as my #10. He's behind Howard. I even have Pujols at #8.

My goal is to have my top 30 picks lined up so that when it comes time for me to draft, no matter what position, I don't have to think about it. I just take the next on my list. Of course it may have to be modified so I don't take 3 or 4 outfielders in a row. I figure if I take Holliday with my first pick for instance, I just slide down to the next position player instead of OF.

To be honest, I'm hoping to not be in a position to take Holliday. Who I really want is Wright somewhere from pick 2 to 4 or 5.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby bigwords » Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:11 am

I for one totally agree with you here. The "lock up utility" argument is widely accepted and hardly ever questioned. Well, it should be. Value wise, David Ortiz has been one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last few years, returning Top 5 Player value year in and year out.

Yes, by drafting position players over DH-only players, you certainly have flexibility to rotate players into that utility spot at whim.

HOWEVER, people draft Chase Utley in the first round, and Russell Martin in the third round, not because they believe that these players will produce stats that in a positionless world, are equivalent to other players drafted around them. They target these players foremost because of the value they provide at their respective positions. Positional scarcity. Value over replacement player. Etc.

In analyzing Big Papi, the question shouldn't be: Do I want to lock up my utility slot? Rather what should be asked is this: Does David Ortiz give me a statistical value advantage at U over the player(s) that my competitors are sticking in their U slots? How much advantage -- and what's the value advantage I'd get by taking a player at another position?

Given that question, and looking at some of the data that's out there, I think there's a good case to be made that Ortiz is worthy of the #3 selection.

That said, if nobody else in your league is going to draft him until the 2nd round, well, you'd be foolish to "reach" and pick him at #3 given the opportunity to get him much later. Actually, David Ortiz is a good reason why it's better to draft a bit later in the 1st round as having the opportunity to select Big Papi in the 2nd is a good recipe for success.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Rounders » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:00 am

I have Ortiz as a keeper in 2 leagues, and I figure I'm getting a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder. I'd consider him as the 2nd 1B behind Pujols, but that would still put him in the 9 - 11 range (around Rollins and Santana).
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:36 pm

Not worried about position that early in the draft at all. If I know the guy is going to produce then I'll take him.

Ortiz at #3 is way too early because there are other players who are younger and provide better overall numbers.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby acsguitar » Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:45 pm

You don't take Ortiz at 3 because there are alot of better players then him to take at 3
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:31 pm

Rounders wrote:I have Ortiz as a keeper in 2 leagues, and I figure I'm getting a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder.


thats much too late.

in a dynasty i just got him at 2.05 and i was very happy.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby eftda » Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:26 pm

horatio wrote:After A-Rod and Holliday:


THis is the first I am hearing of Holliday being a number 2 overall. I would be willing to take Wright, Hammy, possibly Reyes as number 2... but Holliday? :-? I'm looking for 30-30, .300 players with my 1st pick.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby Amazing Oopah » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:35 pm

I wouldn't take him at 3rd overall because there's a good chance I could get him anyways a little bit later.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby great gretzky » Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:47 pm

bigwords wrote:I for one totally agree with you here. The "lock up utility" argument is widely accepted and hardly ever questioned. Well, it should be. Value wise, David Ortiz has been one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last few years, returning Top 5 Player value year in and year out.

Yes, by drafting position players over DH-only players, you certainly have flexibility to rotate players into that utility spot at whim.

HOWEVER, people draft Chase Utley in the first round, and Russell Martin in the third round, not because they believe that these players will produce stats that in a positionless world, are equivalent to other players drafted around them. They target these players foremost because of the value they provide at their respective positions. Positional scarcity. Value over replacement player. Etc.

In analyzing Big Papi, the question shouldn't be: Do I want to lock up my utility slot? Rather what should be asked is this: Does David Ortiz give me a statistical value advantage at U over the player(s) that my competitors are sticking in their U slots? How much advantage -- and what's the value advantage I'd get by taking a player at another position?

Given that question, and looking at some of the data that's out there, I think there's a good case to be made that Ortiz is worthy of the #3 selection.

That said, if nobody else in your league is going to draft him until the 2nd round, well, you'd be foolish to "reach" and pick him at #3 given the opportunity to get him much later. Actually, David Ortiz is a good reason why it's better to draft a bit later in the 1st round as having the opportunity to select Big Papi in the 2nd is a good recipe for success.


I don't quite agree. The logic is there, that ultimately a papi at utility is better than usual. But the felxibility comes up huge in the early goings of a season, where there are tons of values to be had on the wire. Well not tons, but you have no way of working those guys in. However, a 1b eligible guy can play there CI and Utility. I agree with the idea that it shouldn't go without question, but it can and does hamstring you in other ways as well, notably opportunity cost of not being as well-positioned as your league mates to get those other kinds of guys. Yea, you can get them too, but they have to be in specific positions. Other players can take the hot waiver guy, and play him, in many cases without worrying about position. I wouldn't refuse to take a guy based on that, but I do try to avoid it.
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Re: Why not David Ortiz at pick #3

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:13 pm

eftda wrote:
horatio wrote:After A-Rod and Holliday:


THis is the first I am hearing of Holliday being a number 2 overall. I would be willing to take Wright, Hammy, possibly Reyes as number 2... but Holliday? :-? I'm looking for 30-30, .300 players with my 1st pick.

That is not describing Jose Reyes, then. ;-)

I woudn't fault anyone for taking Holliday wth Pick 1.02 at all.
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