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Holds 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:32 pm

OK, I'm starting to put together my MR holds rankings and I always start by looking at team performance. As you thinking about holds, teams--and more importantly managers, play a big role. Why does Jon Rauch go from 18 holds to 33? Might have something to do with the fact that he want frombeing managed by Frank Robinson to Manny Acta, and Manny led the league in relief appearances and relievers used on consecutive days. Projecting holds is tough because it depends on so many things. You have to consider team wins, how many relief appearances a manager gives his pen, whether he concentrates those opportunities among a few relievers or not, the pitcher's performance, and so on. Some managers show definite tendencies. Under Robinson the Nats averaged 65 holds. Last year, they had 95 under Acta. Under McKeon and Girardi, the Marlins never had more than 69 holds. In his first year, Fredi Gonzalez racked up 106 holds! But, no Marlin reliever had more than 20, because he spread those out. The manager has tendencies, but that interacts with the pitcher performance--did Fredi behave that way because that's the way he handles a pen or because his relievers did not perform well or both? You can only judge that over time. Sciosia is always low in relief appearances and relievers used on consecutive days, but always has 1or 2 guys among the hold leaders. He concentrates his bullpen innings among just a handful of relievers.

So, without any more gab, here's the list of teams and holds last year:

Team HLD07
Florida Marlins 106
Washington Nationals 95
Milwaukee Brewers 95
Philadelphia Phillies 90
San Francisco Giants 86
AZ Diamondbacks 85
Texas Rangers 80
Colorado Rockies 80
Boston Red Sox 78
New York Mets 78
Baltimore Orioles 78
San Diego Padres 76
Seattle Mariners 74
Kansas City Royals 74
Los Angeles Angels 74
Detroit Tigers 73
Chicago White Sox 73
Los Angeles Dodgers 73
New York Yankees 71
Cleveland Indians 71
Pittsburgh Pirates 68
Chicago Cubs 67
Oakland Athletics 66
Houston Astros 65
Minnesota Twins 65
Toronto Blue Jays 64
Atlanta Braves 64
St. Louis Cardinals 63
Cincinnati Reds 59
Tampa Bay Rays 58
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby Terribledevil » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:46 pm

Scot Shields
Hideki Okajima
Jonathan Broxton
Heath Bell
Carlos Marmol
Pat Neshek
Rafael Betancourt
Derrick Turnbow
LaTroy Hawkins
Octavio Dotel
Tom Gordon
Fernando Rodney
Al Reyes
Brian Fuentes lhp
Alan Embree lhp
Eddie Guardado lhp
Aaron Heilman
Damaso Marte lhp
David Weathers
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby Half Massed » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:56 pm

Hmm, 8 of the top 10 teams are in the NL.
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby KCollins1304 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:58 pm

Half Massed wrote:Hmm, 8 of the top 10 teams are in the NL.


I'd say that is in large part due to pinch hitting for pitchers.
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby MasterX1918 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:01 pm

I guess this proves that holds does not equal wins
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby Brandaddy » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:25 pm

excellent! your holds thread last year was a big help in me winning the HD cat last year. im looking forward to your rankings again this year.
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby The Cow » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:31 pm

Any help in holds is greatly appreciated as I am joining a new league and this will be the first time I have used holds. I always thought it to be a lame stat, but I am stuck.

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Re: Holds 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:34 pm

And 6 of the bottom ten are from the NL. This is the third time in the last five years that 8 of the top teams have been from the NL. But, it's only a weak guide for the hold leaders, since the manager's decisions about how much to concentrate holds in a small set of pitchers also is important. Over the last 5 years the average NL team has 70 holds, while the average AL team has 62 holds.
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Feb 03, 2008 4:38 pm

A quick and dirty shot at some of the guys who had 20+holds last year, along with a few others I was curious about. My plan is to project at least 4 guys per team (8th inning, 7th inning, LOOGY, and one other guy who should be in the mix). In addition to holds, I'll be listing them by tiers and including their other stats when I finish it up.

30+ holds: Bell and Lyon
25-29 holds: Broxton, Rauch, Betancourt, Qualls, Howry, Gordon, Speier, Heilman
20-24 holds: Shields, Okajima, Turnbow, Linebrink, Sherrill, Franklin, Janssen, Wheeler, Downs, Walker
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Re: Holds 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 09, 2008 11:41 am

Try to post most of my work here this weekend. First, tiers:

Tier 1. I'm projecting this group to basically have 25+ holds, an ERA under 3.50, a WHIP below 1.25, and 50+Ks. For this tierand the others, a player may fall short of that in one category if they are significantly better in another one.

Rauch, Speier, Howry, Heilman, Broxton, Bell, Betancourt.

The only surprise here might be Speier. I'm projecting slips by Linebrink and Shields, and expect Speier to overtake Shields as the primary hold option no later than June. Post ASB last year Speier had 16 holds to Shields' 11. Shields had a 7.36 ERA after the break. He'll be much better than that in 2008, but not good enough to hold the job.

Tier 2: Basic projection of 20+ holds, ERA<3.75, WHIP<1.35, Ks>45
Okajima, Shields, Sherrill (assuming he does not become closer) Benoit, Gordon, Pena, Qualls, Fuentes.

Tier 3: (15+, <4.00, <1.35, 40+)
Bradford, Walker, Timlin, Farnsworth, Reyes, Wheeler, Janssen, Downs, Ayala, Marmol, Weathers, Riske, Marte, Franklin, Justin Miller, Feliciano, Beimel, Meredith, Rafael Perez, Rodney, Rincon, Neshek.

And a few sleepers...these are guys I would just put on your watch list after the draft. It's possible they could earn a role in ST, but more likely could step in an provide good value after an injury or in mid-season. All are projected to have ERA under 4,,WHIP under 1.3, and 40+Ks.

Henry Owens
Mike Gonzalez
Joe Smith
Jeremy Accardo (depending on the Ryan situation).
Mike Wuertz
Chris Schroder
Kevin Correia
Justin Duchscherer (if not starting).

I appreciate any comments, suggestions, requests, etc. Especially like help from people who know their hometown teams well and have insight into how bullpens are being planned.

Did not yet do Zumaya or Joba, yet, because I want to do wait to see what the Yanks real plans are on Joba, and hear more about Zumaya's health. If healthy and in the pen, both would be no lower than Tier 2.



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