OK, I'm starting to put together my MR holds rankings and I always start by looking at team performance. As you thinking about holds, teams--and more importantly managers, play a big role. Why does Jon Rauch go from 18 holds to 33? Might have something to do with the fact that he want frombeing managed by Frank Robinson to Manny Acta, and Manny led the league in relief appearances and relievers used on consecutive days. Projecting holds is tough because it depends on so many things. You have to consider team wins, how many relief appearances a manager gives his pen, whether he concentrates those opportunities among a few relievers or not, the pitcher's performance, and so on. Some managers show definite tendencies. Under Robinson the Nats averaged 65 holds. Last year, they had 95 under Acta. Under McKeon and Girardi, the Marlins never had more than 69 holds. In his first year, Fredi Gonzalez racked up 106 holds! But, no Marlin reliever had more than 20, because he spread those out. The manager has tendencies, but that interacts with the pitcher performance--did Fredi behave that way because that's the way he handles a pen or because his relievers did not perform well or both? You can only judge that over time. Sciosia is always low in relief appearances and relievers used on consecutive days, but always has 1or 2 guys among the hold leaders. He concentrates his bullpen innings among just a handful of relievers.
So, without any more gab, here's the list of teams and holds last year:
Team HLD07 Florida Marlins 106 Washington Nationals 95 Milwaukee Brewers 95 Philadelphia Phillies 90 San Francisco Giants 86 AZ Diamondbacks 85 Texas Rangers 80 Colorado Rockies 80 Boston Red Sox 78 New York Mets 78 Baltimore Orioles 78 San Diego Padres 76 Seattle Mariners 74 Kansas City Royals 74 Los Angeles Angels 74 Detroit Tigers 73 Chicago White Sox 73 Los Angeles Dodgers 73 New York Yankees 71 Cleveland Indians 71 Pittsburgh Pirates 68 Chicago Cubs 67 Oakland Athletics 66 Houston Astros 65 Minnesota Twins 65 Toronto Blue Jays 64 Atlanta Braves 64 St. Louis Cardinals 63 Cincinnati Reds 59 Tampa Bay Rays 58
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Scot Shields Hideki Okajima Jonathan Broxton Heath Bell Carlos Marmol Pat Neshek Rafael Betancourt Derrick Turnbow LaTroy Hawkins Octavio Dotel Tom Gordon Fernando Rodney Al Reyes Brian Fuentes lhp Alan Embree lhp Eddie Guardado lhp Aaron Heilman Damaso Marte lhp David Weathers
Any help in holds is greatly appreciated as I am joining a new league and this will be the first time I have used holds. I always thought it to be a lame stat, but I am stuck.
Thanks, The Cow
Give Snakes his due!!!! Snakes deserves the fantasy expert icon!!! Go Snakes!!!!
And 6 of the bottom ten are from the NL. This is the third time in the last five years that 8 of the top teams have been from the NL. But, it's only a weak guide for the hold leaders, since the manager's decisions about how much to concentrate holds in a small set of pitchers also is important. Over the last 5 years the average NL team has 70 holds, while the average AL team has 62 holds.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
A quick and dirty shot at some of the guys who had 20+holds last year, along with a few others I was curious about. My plan is to project at least 4 guys per team (8th inning, 7th inning, LOOGY, and one other guy who should be in the mix). In addition to holds, I'll be listing them by tiers and including their other stats when I finish it up.
Try to post most of my work here this weekend. First, tiers:
Tier 1. I'm projecting this group to basically have 25+ holds, an ERA under 3.50, a WHIP below 1.25, and 50+Ks. For this tierand the others, a player may fall short of that in one category if they are significantly better in another one.
The only surprise here might be Speier. I'm projecting slips by Linebrink and Shields, and expect Speier to overtake Shields as the primary hold option no later than June. Post ASB last year Speier had 16 holds to Shields' 11. Shields had a 7.36 ERA after the break. He'll be much better than that in 2008, but not good enough to hold the job.
Tier 2: Basic projection of 20+ holds, ERA<3.75, WHIP<1.35, Ks>45 Okajima, Shields, Sherrill (assuming he does not become closer) Benoit, Gordon, Pena, Qualls, Fuentes.
And a few sleepers...these are guys I would just put on your watch list after the draft. It's possible they could earn a role in ST, but more likely could step in an provide good value after an injury or in mid-season. All are projected to have ERA under 4,,WHIP under 1.3, and 40+Ks.
Henry Owens Mike Gonzalez Joe Smith Jeremy Accardo (depending on the Ryan situation). Mike Wuertz Chris Schroder Kevin Correia Justin Duchscherer (if not starting).
I appreciate any comments, suggestions, requests, etc. Especially like help from people who know their hometown teams well and have insight into how bullpens are being planned.
Did not yet do Zumaya or Joba, yet, because I want to do wait to see what the Yanks real plans are on Joba, and hear more about Zumaya's health. If healthy and in the pen, both would be no lower than Tier 2.
H
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
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by GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:32 pm 
