***The Ghost's 2008 Fantasy Rankings***

[TheGhost76777]

I'll give you a better example.

Bob Hamelin posted a .987 OPS in 1994 (Braun's was 1.004, almost identical.)

The next season, Hamelin hit .168 with 7 home runs and a .591 OPS.

Now, don't get the wrong idea, I am 110% positive Braun's career will turn out better than Hamelin's. I am also 110% positive Braun will hit more than 7 home runs with a .168 average. Braun could be the #1 ranked 3B at seasons end. But I can also see him being the #10 ranked 3B at seasons end. Personally, I will be conservative and take A-Ram over him.

[TheGhost76777]

Everyone has been smoked by a youngster somewhere. But everyone also has been smoked by veterans too? Last year,

Bay
Manny
Dye

yes, but aside from Manny, Bay & Dye didn't have several consistent years and fall off the face of the earth. Dye was coming off a good year in 2005 & an MVP year in 2006. But several seasons before that he was worthless. Bay had a decent year in 04, then two very good seasons in 05 & 06, but that still dosn't qualify him as a consistent veteran in my book.

I will take guys like Aramis Ramirez, Michael Young, Paul Konerko, ect. all day long over somebody with a question mark over his head

[rookies and cream]

I'll give you a better example.

Bob Hamelin posted a .987 OPS in 1994 (Braun's was 1.004, almost identical.)

The next season, Hamelin hit .168 with 7 home runs and a .591 OPS.

Now, don't get the wrong idea, I am 110% positive Braun's career will turn out better than Hamelin's. I am also 110% positive Braun will hit more than 7 home runs with a .168 average. Braun could be the #1 ranked 3B at seasons end. But I can also see him being the #10 ranked 3B at seasons end. Personally, I will be conservative and take A-Ram over him.

The only way Braun will be ranked #10 at season's end is if he gets hurt.

[Grounded Polo]

I'll give you a better example.

Bob Hamelin posted a .987 OPS in 1994 (Braun's was 1.004, almost identical.)

The next season, Hamelin hit .168 with 7 home runs and a .591 OPS.

Now, don't get the wrong idea, I am 110% positive Braun's career will turn out better than Hamelin's. I am also 110% positive Braun will hit more than 7 home runs with a .168 average. Braun could be the #1 ranked 3B at seasons end. But I can also see him being the #10 ranked 3B at seasons end. Personally, I will be conservative and take A-Ram over him.

Hamelin's track record wasn't comparable to Brauns, he had several rocky seasons before he reached the majors and BA didn't even have him as a top 100 prospect after 1990.

[TheGhost76777]

also, I am not saying that my strategy is correct, or the right way to do things. I have been burnt before, no doubt about it. I mentioned earlier I took Grady over Hanley last year. In 2002, I could of snagged Pujols with the 14th overall pick, but I chose Roberto Alomar instead. Alomar was coming off 3 amazing years, and I figured he was a lock for .310/110/20/80/30. He hit .266 with 11 home runs and 53 RBI. That wasn't a great year for me, I took Chan Ho Park & Joe Mays in the middle rounds. I also liked C.C. Sabathia's K/9 and being a homer I took him in like the 9th/10th round. I don't even want to discuss first round pick (Piazza 11th overall.) I was huge on position scarcity. I also liked Juan Gonzalez going back to Texas, and took him in the 4th or 5th round. He hit 8 home runs that year.

[Yoda]

For Braun... it's hard to imagine that he will completely fall apart. His skills are there and his MLEs suggest that he is capable of this type of production. Worst case scenario you are still looking at 30 HRs, .280ish AVG with double digit steals (he'll hit lefties well enough to keep those numbers up). Given that line up support, his R and RBI should be around 100.

That makes him a top 30 player with a potential to be a lot more.

[HOOTIE]

I respect your opinion on liking to play it safe. ARam could have the better year. I do think you aren't looking at past history, in some of your arguments, like MLEs. I don't think Hamelins career, really proves anything, one way or the other. He was a swing and miss, trying to hit hr type hitter. Brauns minor league history, was quite better then Hamelins. .313 BA, versus a .262 BA. .572 slugging %, versus .494 slugging %.

[HOOTIE]

Update on those scared of Braun.

AVG
Braun .302
Aram .285

HRS
Braun 33
Aram 23

RBIS
Aram 95
Braun 92

RUNS
Aram 84
Braun 75

SB
Braun 11
Aram 2

[Yoda]

THere are plenty of great rookie pitchers who follow up with equally great sophomore years. If anything, Lincecum is the least likely to regress because he is so close to his potential and even a slight improvement in his control will make him a top 25 SP.

Yes there are and I've mentioned a number of them in this thread already but the odds are that he is more likely to regress than improve or stay the same and I for one will not be touching him in 2008.

Wanna bet? This is very easy money for me.

It's a very good thing that someone didn't step up to the plate or he'd be in a world of hurt right now.

[BitterDodgerFan]

lol bobby hamelin and ryan braun comparison was classic!