Yoda wrote: THere are plenty of great rookie pitchers who follow up with equally great sophomore years. If anything, Lincecum is the least likely to regress because he is so close to his potential and even a slight improvement in his control will make him a top 25 SP.
Yes there are and I've mentioned a number of them in this thread already but the odds are that he is more likely to regress than improve or stay the same and I for one will not be touching him in 2008.
Wanna bet? This is very easy money for me.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Ender wrote:As for knowing what you get with Aramis - He has only hit 35 HR's twice in the past 6 years. He has only had significantly over 100 RBI 1 time in his career. He is a lock for 2 or fewer SB and most likely will have substandard runs (under 90 all but 2 seasons, never had 100). He's also a lifetime .283 hitter so the .300 isn't even a lock though it is the safest bet of the bunch. Just to put it into perspective for you, you said he is a lock for 35 HR, 100 RBI and a .300 AVG. He has had exactly 1 season in his career where he matched that statline and it was 4 years ago.
Even if you are really conservative with Braun and give him something like 90 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 15 SB, .280 AVG they are pretty close in value and you know Braun could give you 100+ R, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 15 SB, .300+ AVG. Aramis has nowhere near that upside.
I dunno, just seems too conservative especially considering you are willing to take Weeks so high. not suggesting Braun in the 1st round or anything but if he is sitting there in the 3rd I cannot imagine taking Aramis over him.
Maybe I am just too high on Ramirez, but too me he is easily one of the most consistent players out there. I got him early 3rd last year, and I would do so again this year if I get the chance. Look at his numbers since he became a Cub:
To me, this suggest that Ramirez, if he stays healthy enough to play in 140-150 games, is more than likely going to hit over .300, give me at least 30 home runs, if not middle 30's, and drive in over 100 runs. This year I like him to drive in 110-120. He got 101 last season while missing almost a month, and he also has Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot and Derrek Lee hitting in front of him. He will never lead the league in runs, but he will consistently give you 90+ per 162 game average. And with all that production, I don't care about stolen bases, I will draft them elsewhere. I love having players like Aramis Ramirez on my team, I know what I'm getting and he never gives me a headache.
As for Braun, yes he can easily surpass .300-90-35-110-0, and if he does I will have him ranked above Ramirez in 2009. Since I began playing fantasy baseball in 1998, there have been a number of awesome rookies who came back down to earth their second season. Personally, I've got burnt on guys like Erik Hinskie, Josh Barfield, Austin Kearns and Scott Podsednick to name a few. This philosophy has also hurt me in the past - last year I drafted Sizemore in the 2nd round over Hanley Ramirez. But hey, my drafting strategy has worked for me the past 5 seasons, so I don't like to change it up much.
NZF, yes i remember. James found that only 35% decreased in history, though he didn't break it into hitters/pitchers. Since pitchers account for about 40%-45% of rosters, more hitters were in the study. I compliment you on your work, but i just don't buy 70%. That means, almost no hitters would have decreased. While i agree pitchers could decrease more thn hitters, it's the % i doubt. I would have to see a much larger sample size then 100. Think about it. If 70% of pitchers decreased, you can see that that leaves very little hitters, since only 35% of total players decreased.
Ghost, i respect your confidence in Aram. However, throwing names out like Listack, Kearns, Pods, Barfield doesn't help at all. None of those guys had a Pujols season like Braun. Not even close. Braun had a nice track record in the minors.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Posts: 14815
(Past Year: 551)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Bases this season: 4,236
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.
Reliever (Non-Closer) Rankings **ranked by projected holds, number of possible save opportunity's and projected WHIP & K/9 ratios**
1 Rafael Betancourt, CLE 2 Pat Neshek, MIN 3 Jeremy Accardo, TOR 4 Brian Fuentes, COL 5 Jonathon Broxton, LAD 6 Joaquin Benoit, TEX 7 Joel Zumaya, DET 8 Hideki Okajima, BOS 9 Scot Shields, LAA 10 Rafael Perez, CLE 11 Bob Howry, CHC 12 Peter Moylan, ATL 13 Brandon Lyon, ARZ 14 Justin Speier, LAA 15 Aaron Heilman, NYM 16 David Riske, MIL 17 Heath Bell, SD 18 Octovio Dotel, CWS 19 Jon Rauch, WAS 20 Damaso Marte, PIT 21 Mike Gonzalez, ATL 22 Chad Qualls, HOU 23 Pedro Felicano, NYM 24 Ron Mahay, KC 25 Ryan Madson, PHI 26 Matt Lindstrom, FLA 27 Derrick Turnbow, MIL 28 Fernando Rodney, DET 29 Cla Meredith, SD 30 Russ Springer, STL 31 George Sherrill, SEA 32 Al Reyes, TB 33 Manny Delcarmen, BOS 34 Dan Wheeler, TB 35 Juan Cruz, ARZ 36 Brian Wolfe, TOR 37 Kason Gabbard, TEX 38 Scott Linebrink, CWS 39 Jensen Lewis, CLE 40 Scott Downs, TOR 41 Casey Janssen, TOR 42 LaTroy Hawkins, NYY 43 Joel Peralta, KC 44 Justin Duchscherer, OAK 45 Kyle Farnsworth, NYY 46 Armando Benitez, FLA 47 Taylor Tankersley, FLA 48 Matt Herges, COL 49 Ryan Franklin, STL 50 J.C. Romero, PHI
HOOTIE wrote:Ghost, i respect your confidence in Aram. However, throwing names out like Listack, Kearns, Pods, Barfield doesn't help at all. None of those guys had a Pujols season like Braun. Not even close. Braun had a nice track record in the minors.
yes, I know those players are not in Braun's level, those were just players I had drafted the past fews only to get burned on. I don't think Braun will have a bad year, I just like to know what I am getting. I get Ramirez, I know I am getting .300/90/35/110/0 give or take. Braun, I could see him putting up .310/120/40/130/20. But I could also see him putting up .270/80/25/85/15.
HOOTIE wrote:Ghost, i respect your confidence in Aram. However, throwing names out like Listack, Kearns, Pods, Barfield doesn't help at all. None of those guys had a Pujols season like Braun. Not even close. Braun had a nice track record in the minors.
Even though Braun's #s are much better, my judgments on him are haunted by the ghost of Austin Kearns' rookie year. I have Braun pretty high, but I'm a little scared.
HOOTIE wrote:Ghost, i respect your confidence in Aram. However, throwing names out like Listack, Kearns, Pods, Barfield doesn't help at all. None of those guys had a Pujols season like Braun. Not even close. Braun had a nice track record in the minors.
Even though Braun's #s are much better, my judgments on him are haunted by the ghost of Austin Kearns' rookie year. I have Braun pretty high, but I'm a little scared.
The scary thing is that PECOTA thinks there is a 60% chance that Braun will actually IMPROVE in '08.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by Yoda » Sun Feb 03, 2008 11:39 am 
I like your rankings....there are some disagreements throughout like everyone else but overall, nicely done!
