Pogotheostrich wrote:I don't know about anyone else but I have serious doubts that Rollins can come close to his 2007 season. Playing 162 games is hard enough. Add to that he had career highs in R, RBI, HR and BA. His SLG% was 90 points over his career average. Could be he just took the next step as a hitter but I'm not buying it.
Probably over analyzing it, but here's my argument for Rollins as a late 1st rounder this year:
Rollins has been in - what - the top 3 in Runs for each of the past 3 years, and since he's averaged 133 Runs over the last 2 years with Utley and Howard behind him I don't think we'll see a huge drop in Runs.
If you take out 2003 he's averaged 37.5 SBs per year since 2001, so I think you're pretty safe betting on 35-40 SBs.
He's averaged 68.6 RBI per year since 2001, and had the 94 in '07 and 83 in '06. I think there's a chance he might drop a little bit, but unless he gets injured I don't think it's likely he hits under 80 RBI.
His career average is .277, but he's averaged .288 over the last 4 years so again his batting average will probably come down some, but we're talking .285 - .295 range.
The last part - his HRs. I'm not sure banking on 30 HR is safe, but he did hit 25 in 2006 with 45 doubles. A 27 year old guy turning 5 more doubles (he hit 38 in '07) into HRs isn't out of the ordinary. I think you're looking at 25-30+ HRs.
Put all of that together and a low-end projection for Jimmy is 130-25-80-35-.285 and a reasonably high end projection is 140-30-95-40-.295. Compare those with low and reasonably high end projections for Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, Soriano, Ryan Braun and even David Wright... Rollins seems to fit into that elite 5-cat group pretty well.