Cafeholics Mock Draft 2008

[daullaz]

I didn't have these resources when we were drafting, but after the mock I looked in the Forecaster to see if they had the same opinion you guys did about Burnett/Carmona. Forecaster actually has Burnett ranked seven SPs ahead of Carmona.

Later, I bought TSN's magazine and saw they had Burnett eight SPs higher than Carmona.

Now, are all three of us right and is everyone else wrong? Not necessarily. But I think that on my end ranking Burnett above Carmona can't be completely criticized. Burnett might be seen as the bigger health risk, but Carmona saw a big increase in his workload last year. A significant number of injuries to young pitchers happen to guys the year after a big workload increase.

[pokerplaya]

I think overall there were some guys who made some dumb picks that shouldn't of been in the draft if thats how they usually draft. I wouldn't want to look at that as an example while drafting, I get the feeling some of these guys made picks to make then seem more "expert" just because there making picks that no one else would to make people think they know something no one else does, if that makes sense.

Are you going to remain vague or give us some examples to explore?

[abrage22]

I think overall there were some guys who made some dumb picks that shouldn't of been in the draft if thats how they usually draft. I wouldn't want to look at that as an example while drafting, I get the feeling some of these guys made picks to make then seem more "expert" just because there making picks that no one else would to make people think they know something no one else does, if that makes sense.

Are you going to remain vague or give us some examples to explore?

and i have no idea what u just said

[Madison]

I think overall there were some guys who made some dumb picks that shouldn't of been in the draft if thats how they usually draft. I wouldn't want to look at that as an example while drafting, I get the feeling some of these guys made picks to make then seem more "expert" just because there making picks that no one else would to make people think they know something no one else does, if that makes sense.

Are you going to remain vague or give us some examples to explore?

and i have no idea what u just said

Translation:

Give some examples. Don't just insult drafters or their picks without giving examples of what you think is "dumb".

[pokerplaya]

Translation:

Give some examples. Don't just insult drafters or their picks without giving examples of what you think is "dumb".

Thanks, Madison. I suppose I was vague.

[abrage22]

o ok i c, but i wasn't trying to get into detail or anything, i was just saying "overall".

[hot4tx]

I don't know about anyone else but I have serious doubts that Rollins can come close to his 2007 season. Playing 162 games is hard enough. Add to that he had career highs in R, RBI, HR and BA. His SLG% was 90 points over his career average. Could be he just took the next step as a hitter but I'm not buying it.

Probably over analyzing it, but here's my argument for Rollins as a late 1st rounder this year:
Rollins has been in - what - the top 3 in Runs for each of the past 3 years, and since he's averaged 133 Runs over the last 2 years with Utley and Howard behind him I don't think we'll see a huge drop in Runs.
If you take out 2003 he's averaged 37.5 SBs per year since 2001, so I think you're pretty safe betting on 35-40 SBs.
He's averaged 68.6 RBI per year since 2001, and had the 94 in '07 and 83 in '06. I think there's a chance he might drop a little bit, but unless he gets injured I don't think it's likely he hits under 80 RBI.
His career average is .277, but he's averaged .288 over the last 4 years so again his batting average will probably come down some, but we're talking .285 - .295 range.
The last part - his HRs. I'm not sure banking on 30 HR is safe, but he did hit 25 in 2006 with 45 doubles. A 27 year old guy turning 5 more doubles (he hit 38 in '07) into HRs isn't out of the ordinary. I think you're looking at 25-30+ HRs.

Put all of that together and a low-end projection for Jimmy is 130-25-80-35-.285 and a reasonably high end projection is 140-30-95-40-.295. Compare those with low and reasonably high end projections for Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, Soriano, Ryan Braun and even David Wright... Rollins seems to fit into that elite 5-cat group pretty well.

[Pogotheostrich]

Put all of that together and a low-end projection for Jimmy is 130-25-80-35-.285 and a reasonably high end projection is 140-30-95-40-.295.

See that's where we don't agree.
Bill James 2008 prediction for Rollins is 120 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB and a .284 BA in 684 AB. That's still a great season but I think you are being overly optimistic on the low end.

[hot4tx]

It's find to predict that as long as you also predict every offensive player to have under his average stats for 2008. Again, to each his own but Rollins 2007 isn't a huge difference in most categories to what he's done in the past. Even if he does regress to 2006 stats he significantly beats that projection. The lineup around him is still about the same, no major stars are in danger of falling off, and he's not a mid-30's guy that you should reasonably anticipate a decline in ability.

[Pogotheostrich]

One of the main reasons the projections on Rollins are less than his 2007 season is that he set a MLB record for the most PA in a season. He's still I great player but I wouldn't take him in the 1st round.