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2nd Flight OF Rank

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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:33 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:IMO, you guys are not looking at BA the right way.

Each stat in fantasy baseball is only worth its value relative to others in the league. It doesn't matter whether it is a rate or counting statistic, fantasy numbers only matter RELATIVE to other teams.

It's simple to understand really. Take your entire roster, and find the mean of each statistic. For example, I'll take the team I drafted for the Cafe Mock I we are currently conducting. Mine works quite well because I finished towards the middle portion of most offensive categories.

0.290 BA
23 HRs
91 RBIs
90 Runs
12 SB

This is the average production for each starter on my team. If the average production in any category were to rise or fall, so would my standings in the league. Any player you draft, then, can have both a positive or negative impact on each statistic, whether or not it actually subtracts from your totals. A player like CB Young would lower my cumulative BA, and RBIs, but increase my standings in both Runs, HRs, and SBs. Again, BA is no different than any other statistic.


Yes - totally agree. I consider that a player needs to average X for each category (let's use the above numbers). If a player gets 0 steals then he subtracts from that category the same as a player who has a low average. There is rarely a player that is successful in all 5 categories and they usually get a premium value assigned to them.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby swyck » Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:13 pm

rjforlife wrote:
The Cow wrote:Do I HAVE to draft these guys?? None of them are on my radar or so I say people in my league..

Le Cow de Moo


Are you serious? These are 3rd OFs easy. Plus my league is 9 teams and start 5 OF so we have to go further. Any further insight?


Must be in an 8 team all-star league.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby rjforlife » Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:25 pm

swyck wrote:
rjforlife wrote:
The Cow wrote:Do I HAVE to draft these guys?? None of them are on my radar or so I say people in my league..

Le Cow de Moo


Are you serious? These are 3rd OFs easy. Plus my league is 9 teams and start 5 OF so we have to go further. Any further insight?


Must be in an 8 team all-star league.


That or a 9 team league where we start 5 OF......thanks for demeaning my league though and not adding anything else to the discussion.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:00 am

HOOTIE wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
Ender wrote: Also the average doesn't KILL you anymore than say taking Reyes and getting below average RBI for an early pick. If you like Young and want to actively target him just make sure to keep an eye on AVG earlier in the draft.


You are way off the mark here. Last season Young would have dropped a standard team batting average by at least 8-10 points. That is huge and a potential killer to a team. Reyes lack of RBI is absorbed by his dominance of the SB category.


I got to agree here. If a guy doesn't steal, he doesn't SUBTRACT from your sb total, he simply isn't adding too it. But guys who hit under .250, with 500 abs, SUBTRACTS from BA.

JACKIE, A Jones may never hit .275 again.

Cow, look at xBA not real BA, if you want to better gauge average.


That is completely the wrong way to treat AVG and is a very common mistake in fantasy baseball. Lets start the conversation with the assumption you never leave a roster spot empty. I assume this is an ok assumption that you can agree with? You pretty much always have a player in every roster spot? Every roster spot is worth roughly the average player in your league in every stat.

Right now on my spreadsheet that is 77R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .281 AVG. When you draft a player his value is based in comparison to that statline. If I draft Willy Taveras and his 35 RBI I've just put myself 40 RBI in the hole which is a couple places in the standings. When I draft Chris Young in my league I drop AVG by about .03 and drop a couple places in the standings. When I draft David Ortiz and get 0 SB I drop a couple places in the standings. When I draft Placido Polanco and his 9 HR I drop 10 HR's and lose a couple places in the standings. AVG is no different than any other stat.

The way you are looking at it suggests that I am leaving a roster spot empty instead of drafting a player. A 10 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .200 AVG hitter very obviously hurts me in every single category. However using your valuation method he helps me a tiny bit in every category and kills me in AVG when in reality he is killing me in every single category by producing so far below the average player.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:47 am

I agree every league has a baseline for each stat. But i think you have to weigh playing time into it.

For example,

Player A, hits .250 with 25 hrs, 75 runs, 75 rbis, 5 sb, in 400 abs.

Player B, hits .250 with 25 hrs, 75 runs, 75 rbis, 5 sb, in 600 abs.

Which player do you want? They both gave you the same numbers elsewhere.

Player A in 400 abs, or player B in 600 abs?

I will take player A, because his effect on BA, will be less, because of abs.

The same effect goes to innings pitched, on how it effects era/whip.

Pitcher A, has a 5 era, with a 1.5 whip, with 50 K's, and 5 wins, in 50 innings.

Pitcher B, has a 5 era, with a 1.5 whip, with 50 K's, and 5 wins, in 100 innings.

Which pitcher do you want? They had the exact same numbers, but one added 50 innings to reduce your era/whip by more.

I will take player A.

Excessive abs and innings pitched, can sway your BA or era/whip, by more imo, then the other stats.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:54 am

I do take AB's into account in my valuations though. I agree that a 600 AB player with a crappy AVG (Feliz) hurts more than a 400 AB type (Weeks). I just disagree that AVG is somehow different than other stats when it comes to hurting you when a player is deficient in it. It is just as easy to offset Chris Young's AVG as it is Willy Taveras's RBI and/or HR. If you draft a pure SB guy you have to get a HR/RBI guy at some point to offset it. It you draft a Chris Young you need a heavy AVG guy to offset him. No real difference.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:07 am

RJ, it's your thread. You never ranked them? Just some comments.

ADP was 59.99 (18th OF) for Hunter, 61.68 (19th OF) for C Young, 79.72 (22nd OF) for Hawpe.

I find it odd that with 10 OF listed, some said they wouldn't consider any of them?

Bay seems to be the OF with the most variance in discussions. I think last year was a fluke. His hit rate % of 30, was way under his norm. His hr/f ratio of 12%, was way under his norm. I expect .280+ with 30 hrs/95 rbis.

Hawpe had 16 2nd half hrs. His flyball ratio took a big jump, which suggests more hrs.

Dye had a bad 1st half. He had 17 hrs, and a .887 ops the 2nd half.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby dryice » Sun Feb 03, 2008 11:06 am

Young

Matsui

Hawpe
Wells
Jones

Bay
Dye
Francoer
Hunter
Damon

two things about Young..Young has a good eye..if obp up to some simile of minors...could steal 50+..stole 27 as out machine...Also very adaptable so maybe will alleviate extreme pull hitting..anyway great upside.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby swyck » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:22 pm

rjforlife wrote:
rjforlife wrote:
The Cow wrote:Do I HAVE to draft these guys?? None of them are on my radar or so I say people in my league..

Le Cow de Moo


Are you serious? These are 3rd OFs easy. Plus my league is 9 teams and start 5 OF so we have to go further. Any further insight?


swyck wrote:Must be in an 8 team all-star league.


That or a 9 team league where we start 5 OF......thanks for demeaning my league though and not adding anything else to the discussion.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was actually agreeing with you.

Sure there are players that I put on my don't draft list, but that list is relatively small, and mostly includes injury risks. When you talk about minimum 36 starting OF in a 12 team league, maybe 6 more counting util, plus bench slots, I dont see how any player on that list could be on a do not draft list. IMO OF is not as deep as a lot of people make it out to be.

My list:
Young
Matsui

Hawpe
Bay
Wells
Dye
Francouer
Hunter

Jones
Damon
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Grouperman941 » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:32 pm

Here's how I have them. Give Hunter the biggest chance of falling off, and Bay the biggest chance of moving up.
I like Hunter with the Angels. Just don't count on a lot of Hrs.


Hunter
CB Young
Wells
Francouer
Andruw Jones
Hawpe
H. Matsui
Bay
Damon
Dye
Be excellent to each other.
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