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2nd Flight OF Rank

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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:03 pm

rjforlife wrote:Nice work on the Bay discussion fellows. Started this thread to try to get some opinions/insights on these guys. In that spirit I would like to talk more about CB Young. He covered the most spots on these lists, going anywhere from 1st to worst on the lists (Damon aside). So those who support and those who hate....why?

Young is a tough buy in my league since we count K's as a hitting category. Love the upside of 30/30 and 100 Runs out of the leadoff spot but his avg and K's will kill you in my league. I had him for most of the 2nd half last year and if he didn't hit a HR, it felt lik he was always going 0-4 with 2 K's. If he progresses this year and cuts down on the K's and brings his average up to the .250/.260 range, I'd be more willing to take him but for right now I'd let someone else draft him.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby NZ Eff » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:43 pm

Ender wrote: Also the average doesn't KILL you anymore than say taking Reyes and getting below average RBI for an early pick. If you like Young and want to actively target him just make sure to keep an eye on AVG earlier in the draft.


You are way off the mark here. Last season Young would have dropped a standard team batting average by at least 8-10 points. That is huge and a potential killer to a team. Reyes lack of RBI is absorbed by his dominance of the SB category.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Fade2White12 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:00 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
Ender wrote: Also the average doesn't KILL you anymore than say taking Reyes and getting below average RBI for an early pick. If you like Young and want to actively target him just make sure to keep an eye on AVG earlier in the draft.


You are way off the mark here. Last season Young would have dropped a standard team batting average by at least 8-10 points. That is huge and a potential killer to a team. Reyes lack of RBI is absorbed by his dominance of the SB category.


That doesn't make sense. A below average BA isn't any more damaging than any other stat that is below average. Ender is right on target.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby NZ Eff » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:22 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:That doesn't make sense. A below average BA isn't any more damaging than any other stat that is below average. Ender is right on target.


To you maybe but that doesn't mean it isn't sensible. The problem you have is that Young's BA isn't just below avg. It is way below average and over 500+ AB's that kills you. Reyes 78 SB on the other hand is like Ortiz who doesn't steal bases, hitting 70+ HR's. It absorbs other cat deficiencies. The Reyes example is poor.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Jackie Treehorn » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:31 pm

I'm suprised to see so many SO down on Jones and Bay. Jones is not yet out of his prime, had a down year, but has been a 4th round staple in leagues for years. He has one atrocious year, and people are saying they won't touch him???? Same sort of argument goes for Bay. This guy was 1-2 round material, has an atrocious year, and people won't touch him? I'm suprised. I can definitely see knocking these guys down several rounds, but I'm thinking these guys could be major values in the 8-12 round range.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Fade2White12 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:39 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:That doesn't make sense. A below average BA isn't any more damaging than any other stat that is below average. Ender is right on target.


To you maybe but that doesn't mean it isn't sensible. The problem you have is that Young's BA isn't just below avg. It is way below average and over 500+ AB's that kills you. Reyes 78 SB on the other hand is like Ortiz who doesn't steal bases, hitting 70+ HR's. It absorbs other cat deficiencies. The Reyes example is poor.


Again, that doesn't make sense.

Just take this example:
Let's assume that the average BA for a fantasy team is .285. With 11 starting positions and projecting similar ABs, having CB Young on your team drops your average from .285 to .281. If, like Ender and I said, you make sure to make up for the BA elsewhere, his BA is not crippling whatsoever. If you, for example, draft a .320 hitter - ie Holliday, Vlad, Ichiro, Pujols, MCab, etc. - your cumulative BA jumps back up exactly to .285.

His BA isn't dangerous at all if you make up for it elsewhere. BA = R = HR = RBI etc.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby The Cow » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:04 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:That doesn't make sense. A below average BA isn't any more damaging than any other stat that is below average. Ender is right on target.


To you maybe but that doesn't mean it isn't sensible. The problem you have is that Young's BA isn't just below avg. It is way below average and over 500+ AB's that kills you. Reyes 78 SB on the other hand is like Ortiz who doesn't steal bases, hitting 70+ HR's. It absorbs other cat deficiencies. The Reyes example is poor.


Again, that doesn't make sense.

Just take this example:
Let's assume that the average BA for a fantasy team is .285. With 11 starting positions and projecting similar ABs, having CB Young on your team drops your average from .285 to .281. If, like Ender and I said, you make sure to make up for the BA elsewhere, his BA is not crippling whatsoever. If you, for example, draft a .320 hitter - ie Holliday, Vlad, Ichiro, Pujols, MCab, etc. - your cumulative BA jumps back up exactly to .285.

His BA isn't dangerous at all if you make up for it elsewhere. BA = R = HR = RBI etc.


If you finish with a .281 BA you will probably be second or third to last in that category. Which is not a good thing. Are Young's HR/SB worth it? I would like to know because my teams routinely finish in the bottom 3rd in BA cat, would love to fix it, but its my cursed cat. Why is this? I won 2 leagues last year and in both I was either 2nd or 3rd worst in BA. Anyways...

Its hard to draft a guy that hit .237 last year. I mean you hope he will hit .250?? What if he hits .224??? Both are 13 point swings. Is .224 crippling? How about .237?

I have found, shh, don't tell anyone, that it is a whole lot easier to make up ground in SBs and HRs than AVG. But what do I know as BA is my worst cat year in and year out. And now I have Howard, Phillips, Hanley and Sizemore as my keeps, only Hanley helps BA. So I am screwed again.

I think Young is a great fit for a team with a high BA. Bad fit for teams like mine.

The Cow, any tips on how to improve BA are appreciated. I probably over value HR and SBs, I guess.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:30 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
Ender wrote: Also the average doesn't KILL you anymore than say taking Reyes and getting below average RBI for an early pick. If you like Young and want to actively target him just make sure to keep an eye on AVG earlier in the draft.


You are way off the mark here. Last season Young would have dropped a standard team batting average by at least 8-10 points. That is huge and a potential killer to a team. Reyes lack of RBI is absorbed by his dominance of the SB category.


I got to agree here. If a guy doesn't steal, he doesn't SUBTRACT from your sb total, he simply isn't adding too it. But guys who hit under .250, with 500 abs, SUBTRACTS from BA.

JACKIE, A Jones may never hit .275 again.

Cow, look at xBA not real BA, if you want to better gauge average.
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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby The Cow » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:33 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
Ender wrote: Also the average doesn't KILL you anymore than say taking Reyes and getting below average RBI for an early pick. If you like Young and want to actively target him just make sure to keep an eye on AVG earlier in the draft.


You are way off the mark here. Last season Young would have dropped a standard team batting average by at least 8-10 points. That is huge and a potential killer to a team. Reyes lack of RBI is absorbed by his dominance of the SB category.


I got to agree here. If a guy doesn't steal, he doesn't SUBTRACT from your sb total, he simply isn't adding too it. But guys who hit under .250, with 500 abs, SUBTRACTS from BA.

JACKIE, A Jones may never hit .275 again.

Cow, look at xBA not real BA, if you want to better gauge average.


Thanks I will give it a go. I agree with you on how a low batting AVG subtracts from BA, but low SBs simply don't add to SB.

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Re: 2nd Flight OF Rank

Postby Fade2White12 » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:52 pm

IMO, you guys are not looking at BA the right way.

Each stat in fantasy baseball is only worth its value relative to others in the league. It doesn't matter whether it is a rate or counting statistic, fantasy numbers only matter RELATIVE to other teams.

It's simple to understand really. Take your entire roster, and find the mean of each statistic. For example, I'll take the team I drafted for the Cafe Mock I we are currently conducting. Mine works quite well because I finished towards the middle portion of most offensive categories.

0.290 BA
23 HRs
91 RBIs
90 Runs
12 SB

This is the average production for each starter on my team. If the average production in any category were to rise or fall, so would my standings in the league. Any player you draft, then, can have both a positive or negative impact on each statistic, whether or not it actually subtracts from your totals. A player like CB Young would lower my cumulative BA, and RBIs, but increase my standings in both Runs, HRs, and SBs. Again, BA is no different than any other statistic.
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