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BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:12 am

No one really has a beat on prospects, not even gms, who are paid to draft them. 56% of guys drafted in the 1st round, never played 1 game, or played more then 1 year in the bigs. So basically, 4 out of 10 1st rounders, even make it to year 2 in bigs. Just go look at the history of 1st rounds. BA sure is taking a pounding. I think they do as well as anyone.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby JDD » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:18 am

After reading these posts, many of us confuse the terms potential, ability, and present opportunity.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Ender » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:38 am

If someone put out a prospect list that was 100% accurate based on the actual career of all players involved it would be a terrible list. That sounds very counterintuitive but it is true. A prospect list has to take potential into consideration and the majority of players do not reach their potential. People need to seriously cut these guys some slack.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:00 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30


hey dude, thats not even you...different name :-t :-P !+)


I'm pretty sure he's the same guy, which I hear is frowned upon by the mods around here... :-?
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby King Tim » Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:55 am

93. Wladimir Balentien, of, Mariners

I'm not a M's fan. This guy is going to be a stud.....way underrated!
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:25 am

Omaha Red Sox wrote:
I'm pretty sure he's the same guy, which I hear is frowned upon by the mods around here... :-?


that was the joke! man, maybe i should be the jester around here. :-b
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby thedude » Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:27 am

This is not a bad list, except that pitchers are a little high (conisdering that they are the most likely to flame out). I like it better than Kieth Law's list.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 01, 2008 10:43 am

Right it's no different than say... 2008 top 100 MLB player rankings. Some lists are better than others and each person has to do their homework and make their own ranking list at the end.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Fri Feb 01, 2008 1:25 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:
Omaha Red Sox wrote:
I'm pretty sure he's the same guy, which I hear is frowned upon by the mods around here... :-?


that was the joke! man, maybe i should be the jester around here. :-b


Maybe they could put on of these :-B in place of mine then. !+)
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:06 pm

Pretty timely article...
I have been doing prospect lists since 1996. You know something? No matter how hard you try, how much you study, or how much effort you put into it, you will ALWAYS be wrong sometimes. Every analyst is a human being, writing about other human beings.

Baseball America, Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, Deric McKamey, and everyone else who does a prospect list, we all face the same challenge: predicting the future of other humans. All of us have different backgrounds, different emphasis, different ways of looking at things. Sometimes we are right, sometimes we are wrong. We all have good years and bad years. I just wrote a book with 1,074 players in it, and I’ve already found another 10 guys I should have written about. I’m human, Keith is human, Kevin is human, Deric is human, and everyone at Baseball America is human, too.

Does Keith overrate Mitch Boggs? Maybe. Do I overrate Jed Lowrie? Maybe. But that’s what makes it valuable to have different opinions about things: insight doesn’t come from conformity. It’s the outlier opinions that are most fascinating to me.

And that’s what makes this whole thing interesting, to me at least. If everyone produced nearly identical lists, where would be the fun in that?

There is room for all of us, in my view.

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