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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby NZ Eff » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:14 pm

RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30
Last edited by NZ Eff on Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby rookies and cream » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:20 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


In defense of Kevin, most prospect lists had Jackson and Wood high. Sometimes they just don't pan out for whatever reason (usually lack of adjustment by the prospects themselves).
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby bigwords » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:26 pm

Are prospect lists a crapshoot?

I'd say you need to know how to interpret them:

1. Those who make prospect lists tend to overrate AND underrate players under the age of 21. Simple reason is that there isn't much professional experience to make a reasoned determination how good these very, very young players actually are. So you can look back and see players who should have been higher and players who should have been lower...more often than not, it's due to the age factor.

2. Prospect lists tend to overemphasize "upside" and underemphasize "certainty." Because these players are very young, scouts generally just pay attention to "tools" -- whether a guy has power & speed -- and assume that eventually, the players in question will learn how to use their raw abilities. Players who have less tools, but have shown the ability to do well anyway thanks to plate discipline or throwing control -- tend to be overlooked.

3. Defense plays a big part of these rankings. When we come up with fantasy rankings, nobody pays attention to defense...but here like in real baseball, it matters, and it certainly skews the results.

4. For fantasy purposes, you need to look at how close these players are to the majors. Age, highest minor league level attained so far, organizational opportunity, organizational track-record for promoting prospects, and demonstrated success (not just hyped potential) should be measured.

5. Those who do this thing are in a small club (though the club is getting bigger with the rise of the Internet). Everybody reads each other's work. Usually, rankers like to play it safe and not look foolish. But everyone has a pet prospect and a predicted dog.

All in all, I'd say say these rankings do a very good job at predicting future major league stars, but you can't just look at it as a list of "this guy is better than that guy..."
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Yoda » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:29 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30


To be fair, you can say that about 95% of top prospects and you'd be right most of the time.

I'd be more impressed if you picked a prospect who turned out to be awesome. But yeah, Goldstein is not that great IMO.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby RynMan » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:34 pm

Yoda wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30


I agree - show me one person who's prospect list pans out exactly in order of greatness.

I like Goldstein, if you don't, I'm not going argue about it.

To be fair, you can say that about 95% of top prospects and you'd be right most of the time.

I'd be more impressed if you picked a prospect who turned out to be awesome. But yeah, Goldstein is not that great IMO.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Yoda » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:54 pm

RynMan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30



To be fair, you can say that about 95% of top prospects and you'd be right most of the time.

I'd be more impressed if you picked a prospect who turned out to be awesome. But yeah, Goldstein is not that great IMO.


I agree - show me one person who's prospect list pans out exactly in order of greatness.

I like Goldstein, if you don't, I'm not going argue about it.


Yeah I can understand why some people like certain analysts and publications. I personally think Baseball America is a waste of money but I know most people use it and like it for instance.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jan 31, 2008 5:56 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30

Man, your arms must get tired from patting yourself on the back every chance you get.
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby RynMan » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:07 pm

Yoda wrote:I personally think Baseball America is a waste of money but I know most people use it and like it for instance.


We both agree on that one. :-D
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Jan 31, 2008 6:11 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
RynMan wrote:
If you are going to put stock in a prospect list, this is the one IMO. Kevin Goldstein has his finger on the pulse.


You sure about that?

Goldstein listed Edwin Jackson at No. 4 in his Top prospects list in February 2004 :-t

He also had Brandon Wood listed in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 and now he's got him at 38.


Now someone that does have their finger on the pulse said this in 2004 "I personally think Edwin Jackson is way over hyped. I've got my doubts he will ever make it big in the majors"

link viewtopic.php?t=89930&hilit=edwin+jackson&start=30


hey dude, thats not even you...different name :-t :-P !+)
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Re: BBPro's Top 100 Prospects

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:39 pm

Issues:

9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds


Really? Are you sure they aren't mising another 9?

21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds


The Godzilla of 2008 rookies needs to be a bit higher then 21.

26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics


He's not that good.

41. Johnny Cueto, rhp, Reds
42. Manny Parra, lhp, Brewers


Kennedy is 34 and these guys are below him at 41 and 42? Don't think so.

In some cases in these lists "names" get a little bit of preference over the less sexy prospects.
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