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Vlad health update

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Postby KolbSaves » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:18 am

http://www-gap.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~histor ... Euler.html


He died before baseball came into existence. As far as famous mathematicians go he's a second tier player. Don't reach for him in the draft.


so anway, vlad

sorry for the thread hijack
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Postby Madison » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:08 am

Kind of funny to me......I see the words "lingering back problem" and "injury risk" being thrown around when talking about Vlad. Am I the only person who saw Vlad hit the 502 foot home run that dented the stadium? Oh yeah, that was after the injury.

.301, 8 homers, 5 steals in 176 at bats before the break.
.353, 17 homers, 4 steals in 218 at bats after the break.

I'm not concerned about Vlad's health in the least. B-)
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Postby Brendo » Tue Feb 17, 2004 9:10 am

Erboes wrote:
Brendo wrote:1.Montreal is a hitter's park...look at the stats...puerto rico is even more (even if he didn't play there that much last year

2. no offense to Garrett Anderson, but he had as much lineup protection in Montreal.....Jose Guillen has had one, count em, one good year, and Troy Glaus is more fragile than an American Idol contestant's ego

3. i agree here, dude swings at everything, but still, it could have a (minimal) impact

4. No question he's still more valuable than Abreau, but what made Vlad a top-3 pick was 35+stolen bases....if they go away, so does the value of picking him there again


I'm kind of iritated by this post because it's stretching things a bit. For one thing, who's the best protection Guerrero had in Montreal, Vidro? I'm not big on the whole protection thing, but saying he had the same amount in Montreal is ridiculous.

The second thing is, Glaus has had one injury, and that doesn't make a player "fragile".

Guerrero does not swing at everything anymore. He's become much more patient and his walks have risen to where he's much above average.

And Guerrero wasn't picked top three only because of steals. Even if he's only stealing 10 bases he's a top three pick, or at worse a top five. I do agree with you that Anaheim is not as good of a hitter's park, but I really don't think it's going to matter much for him. I think if you watched his games last season when he came back you'll know what I mean.


OK, to play point counterpoint....if Vidro was the best he wasn't that bad....he hasn't hit below .310 or slugged less than .470....both last year....hitting behind him now????Jose Guillen may be good, but we'll see ...Garrett Anderson is better, but similar to Vidro, Salmon is getting older by the second, and as for Glaus...

He missed time last year with an infected foot, pulled hamstring, bruised shoulder, a sore back, the flu, rotator cuff surgery and had surgery on his eyes this off season....I'm not sure what you think fragile is, but this pretty much sums it up

I did watch Vlad a lot last year, and he was on my team, and yes, he still swings at everything. Maybe not as bad as he once was, and certainly improved from his minor lkeague days, but the most walks he's ever taken in a full year is 88....he walked more last year intentionally (22) than most other full seasons....which plays into lineup protection a bit, but pitchers could do the same in the AL

And if you would draft Vlad top-3 if he doesn't steal, I want you in my league.......where does Beltran's value go if he stops stealing?????same thing here.....a lot of people have fallen in love with the guy (for winning them fantasy titles the past 3 years) but the cold facts are his stealing days may be done, which to me makes him a bad pick at #3....you can get similar production later in a draft
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Postby Erboes » Tue Feb 17, 2004 9:50 am

Honestly, now, would you be afraid to pitch to Vidro if he were a cleanup hitter sitting behind Guerrero? Would he give you pause to pitch around Guerrero? Anderson, however, would. Again, though, I think the whole concept is over rated, so I don't want to dwell on it.

Before last season Glaus was a rock at third. Most players go through a season like his last season once or twice in their careers. Since he won't be hitting right behind Guerrero I don't understand the point of him being brought up, though.

Guerrero still is an aggresive swinger, but much like Sosa was doing at this stage of his career he's reigning it in. It's just the maturation of a ballplayer. Considering an average player will draw a bit over 60 BB's a season, Guerrero's totals are indeed above average.

You also got to understand something, Guerrero's steals propped him up to a $50+ level, someplace not even A-Rod approached. Even if his steals drop to 10, his value is still about $40 and lower than probably only one or two hitters.

I have little doubt that his steals will drop, but the thinking that they'll drop to single digits are not based on facts. He runs. The team runs. So why should he not run? 20 is much more realistic than 5 if you ask me.

You can pass on the guy if you want, but I don't think your logic of doing so is entirely based on facts, just assumptions. You may be proven right, but I'm not buying it.
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Postby Brendo » Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:35 pm

the fact is he's NEVER been a successful base stealer...and now he's going somewhere that won't give himt he opportunity to run wild every game....especially considering he's recovering from a back injury and is reporting to the press that his legs are sore

single digits may not happen this year, but those days are coming.....soon
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Postby Erboes » Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:43 pm

Brendo wrote:the fact is he's NEVER been a successful base stealer...and now he's going somewhere that won't give himt he opportunity to run wild every game....especially considering he's recovering from a back injury and is reporting to the press that his legs are sore

single digits may not happen this year, but those days are coming.....soon


Do you really believe they'll give the red light to Guerrero for anything? If he wants to sit in the dugout and eat chalupas during the game they won't say a word. If Guerrero wants to steal, he'll steal. I don't think, though, he'll want to as much as he did in Anaheim.

Even if he steals just 5, though, he's still a $39 player, which is better than any hitter last season not named Pujols and Sheffield. I think this is a concept you are having a hard time understanding.
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Postby Brendo » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:01 pm

listen, I've a got a firm grip on your "concept", and before i start flaming on you, get your mind around this "concept"

I don't think he's a $40 player anymore. I Wouldn't pay it, and I've given statistical reasons why.

You like him. A lot. That's super.

So go order chalupas and rub each others back for all I care.
I still say his steals go away, and then you're dealing with Manny Ramirez, with potentially fewer RBI's and runs scored
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